Will real estate prices fall in China?

China's real estate** will fall, but only relatively, relative to the highest level in history. The introduction of property tax will increase the cost of real estate ownership, a large number of affordable housing will alleviate the support of some rigid demand for housing prices, and administrative and financial measures such as increasing the proportion of down payments, limiting purchases, limiting loans, and increasing loan interest rates will effectively curb unreasonable housing prices. However, the decline will not be too large, the author believes that the average decline in the country's 70 large and medium-sized cities is 10-20%, and will maintain a range of 10% for a considerable period of time in the future, maintaining a relatively stable range.

Many people may see the question of whether the determination to implement the regulatory policy is resolute here, and if the real economy declines sharply, will the regulatory policy be relaxed? At present, it seems that the market does not have such expectations, from the beginning of the year to lower the expectations of economic growth this year, it can be seen, regardless of how much negative impact the real estate control policy may have on the real economy, the determination to regulate the real estate industry is still unswerving. If you want to understand the reason for the unprecedented strictness and determination of the regulation policy, you will know that the housing prices have reached a critical point through the madness of the past two years, if you do not resolutely suppress it, the vast majority of people will not be able to afford housing, and then there will be social instability, which will damage the legitimacy of the Communist Party's governance, which is to interpret the regulation policy from the political level; From the economic aspect, the crazy housing prices are like a tumor on a person's body for the overall economy, if it is not removed as soon as possible, one day even if it is benign will become malignant, and it will metastasize, and then it will be too late to treat it.

Similarly, if housing prices are allowed to go crazy**, the bubble will burst one day, and the consequences will be worse than the dire impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the US and world economies. Therefore, we want to let house prices fall to a certain extent and maintain relative stability for a period of time, so as to dilute the bubble generated before and slowly bring real estate into the track of benign development. Therefore, the author's conclusion is that housing prices will inevitably fall, and it is no longer advisable to buy residential real estate as an investment tool in the future.

Finally, let's talk about the so-called reasonable**, the so-called reasonable ** refers to what the vast majority of people can afford. Every region, every person, and every different point in time will have different criteria, and it's smart to come up with the phrase "reasonable regression." Understand for yourself.

The state regulates and controls, and there is no reasonable **, but at present, housing prices are slightly stable, not rising as fast as before, and it is estimated that it will not fall much in the future.

Yes, the current domestic inflated high, will return to normal, steady decline, I believe that the decline will continue until the beginning of 09 (the fastest).

No. From the long-term perspective of currency depreciation and steady economic growth, the value of the house should appreciate steadily.

However, the core of real estate is location, and the good location must be growing, and the bad one cannot be ruled out to have adjustments.

As far as individuals are concerned, the value of real estate is related to conditions such as quality, brand, and length of residence, and cannot be generalized.

As long as the economy is stable, there will be no sharp plunge in real estate.

The value retention of the core areas of first-tier cities will not change, and the remote areas will be worse.

It's hard to cut the price. However, it is true that there is no shortage of housing in China. Everyone wants to go to a big city, can housing prices not rise?

This question is actually difficult to say, because China's national debt ratio has reached 2,00 trillion, which means that the motivation for housing prices is not high.

The main reason for this is that China's housing prices have seriously affected the normal life of many young people. We can find that young people are afraid to get married, and at the same time they are not able to get married, mainly because many young people cannot afford to buy a house. For us Chinese, many people will regard the house as the basis for starting a family, and many people just want a home for a lifetime.

Because of this, if housing prices remain high, many people will not be able to afford to buy a house, which will seriously affect the lives of young people, and even more so the structure of the population.

1. Personally, I think China's housing prices will be lower.

In my opinion, housing prices in China's first-tier cities may not decrease in the near future, and may even remain high, and prices in first-tier cities will continue even in the next few years**. However, for other areas except first-tier cities, housing prices in other areas will be further reduced. Because the bubble in the real estate market is so big, housing prices cannot remain high forever, let alone continue**.

Second, I think housing prices will decrease in many cities.

These cities are mainly concentrated below the second-tier cities, and for these areas, it is difficult for me to imagine that the housing prices in a county can reach the level of more than 10,000 yuan. Although many people see the news of a monthly salary of one million on the Internet, such news is just an example, and more people earn only a few thousand yuan, and such an income level simply cannot afford today's housing prices. <>

Third, I think the real estate market will land slowly.

Because the real estate bubble is very large, and housing prices cannot be suddenly ** in a short period of time, we can see that many places have issued so-called real estate fall restriction orders. The reason for this situation is that the sudden increase in housing prices will seriously affect the economic balance, and there will be a large-scale supply interruption. Personally, I think the real estate market will remain high in the next 10 to 20 years, and at the same time, slowly**, which has almost become an inevitable trend.

I think China's housing prices will definitely come down, because in the future, the housing problem will be a problem for many people, and there will definitely be some control in this regard.

I don't think it's possible, house prices will only go up, not down. It is a rigid demand, and there will be ** if there is demand.

Housing prices will definitely fall, because there are more people, and the house will naturally not be worth much. Every family has a house for everyone, you say? Will the house rate still be **?

The housing prices in the first-tier cities are not desperate at all, but the housing prices in the first-tier cities are indeed high in the eyes of outsiders, but they are desperate.

We live in different cities, with different incomes, different prices, and different services and facilities, and for each of us, living in different environments means different pressures. People in third- and fourth-tier cities must feel that housing prices in first-tier cities are hopeless, and people in second-tier cities may feel that housing prices in first-tier cities are Alexander, but they are not hopeless. People living in first-tier cities feel that this is the reality and there is nothing to despair, but instead see housing prices as hope and motivation.

In fact, each of us has a different attitude towards housing prices, and the final result is also different. If we can clearly understand our own capabilities and opportunities, then we will feel that housing prices in first-tier cities do not seem to be so high.

Housing prices in first-tier cities cannot help but make people feel hopeless, because once the housing prices in first-tier cities are too low, it means that a large number of people can buy houses in first-tier cities. No matter what kind of purchase restriction policy, there will be a time limit, as long as the restriction is lifted, then a large number of home buyers will enter the first-tier cities. At that time, housing prices in first-tier cities will be in short supply, which will eventually lead to changes in the direction of the entire property market.

In the end, the population of the entire first-tier cities will grow geometrically, and the consequences will be unimaginable. At that time, the first-tier cities may not be as crowded metropolises as they are now, but will become large bazaars with no quality to speak of.

Therefore, the housing prices in first-tier cities must make some people desperate to ensure that there is a certain amount of population growth, and to dissuade some people who are not working hard and not being pragmatic. Only then can those who hope to get something for nothing finally retreat.

Housing prices are like thresholds, which ultimately block some people.

What is the term of this future?

Housing is not speculation, and it is easy to achieve a balance between demand and supply.

However, the people's psychological expectation is that the house is not a residential product, but an investment product, which can maintain and increase its value, so the demand is always greater than the supply.

Therefore, when psychological expectations change, it is when housing prices plummet.

Look** **If there is no money-making effect, the funds that stay in the property market will not come out If you don't come out, then how your policy is going to be won't be large** Now your property market doesn't make people make money**It also suppresses the money-making effect People also have to eat and support their families What should I do If I have nothing to do, I will make some small funds to fry agricultural products and resources.

Even the savings funds can't see the money-making effect, and they go to the usury market to engage in usury, and you say that your side is suppressing the property market, and it has no effect, and you don't introduce some policies to make the money-making effect?

There is a continuous money-making effect, do you say that the property market funds will still be stupid to participate in your uncertain suppression policies in the property market? The property market funds have been withdrawn, do you say that housing prices will not fall?

Yes, with the lifting of settlement restrictions in small and medium-sized cities, the demographic factor will become an important factor in housing prices. With house prices falling by 50%, the real estate market in first-tier cities will collapse directly. Most current real estate sales are off-plan sales, with only a few properties starting to sell when they become available.

On the one hand, no one knows when the inflection point in house prices will occur. On the other hand, there is no policy that can justify a sharp ** in house prices. At present, "stabilize the real estate market and adhere to the continuity and stability of policies."

By 2021, China's population will show a downward trend, the demand for housing will also follow the decline, the current per capita housing area in China is square meters, for our people, can meet the basic living needs, but with the continuous change of the age structure, housing prices may show a downward trend, some small developers may go bankrupt.

It will go down a bit and remain stable overall. Big cities won't fall, small cities will.

Real estate does not jump, the perineum falls.

Yes, the house is old, the person is old, the person is dead, and if you want to sell, how can you not reduce the price?

If someone speculates in a house, the house price will be high, and the state will take care of it, and the house price will fall.

That's basically the way it goes.

Big cities won't fall, small cities will.

Whether housing prices fall or not, the state has the final say.

Nothing goes up, and it will definitely come down after a long time.

After the reduction, people who have not bought a house will be happy, but for those who have already bought a house, it is a massive shrinkage of assets that is difficult to bear.

Around 2020, the population in this age group will decline dramatically, and the demand for housing will also fall sharply. China's per capita housing area has reached square meters, which is enough for Chinese to live. By around 2020, as the age structure of the population changes, house prices will fall, or even fall sharply, and developers who cannot afford to cut prices will have to wait for bankruptcy.

From the perspective of supply and demand, first of all, from the supply side, the review process for land grants to developers in Guangzhou is becoming more and more stringent, and it is getting higher and higher, so the land price is actually very expensive. Secondly, from the demand side, there are more than 300,000 migrant workers or fresh graduates who enter Guangzhou every year, and these people will definitely have the demand to buy houses when they work and settle in Guangzhou, and the demand is increasing day by day, so the real estate in Guangzhou has always been in short supply.

From the perspective of the importance of real estate to the national economy, in fact, real estate is a very comprehensive industry that includes the secondary industry and the tertiary industry. The proportion of the national economy has long exceeded fifty, and if the real estate collapses, the national economy will definitely collapse, so in order to maintain the smooth operation of the national economy, the real estate will not collapse.

Whether the price of second-hand housing will be reduced depends on the specific city: first- and second-tier cities are still in short supply, and second-hand housing transactions will become the mainstream in the future, especially second-hand houses in good locations. Third- and fourth-tier cities lack population support, and residents prefer new homes, and second-hand housing prices are likely to fall.

There should be no price reduction, with the growth of GDP and the continuous growth of wages, so the house should remain unchanged at this **, maybe one day it will be much higher than the current house price, and by that time your salary will also increase several times!

Yesterday, I watched a program of CCTV-2, which introduced that the current housing prices in large and medium-sized cities across the country are still **, and the increase is basically the same as that of the previous quarter. Real estate is going to be hot before the Olympics right now, and GDP is continuing to grow, so house prices shouldn't be ** in the short term.

In the context of the gradual recovery of the economy, the main reasons for the large decline in housing prices are as follows:

First, the policy is tightened.

In recent years, local governments have successively introduced a number of regulatory policies, including purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price restrictions and other policies.

The implementation of these policies has increased the cost of investing in real estate, limiting the development of the real estate market. In addition, policies such as expanding housing and reducing the number of immigrants have also affected this.

Second, inventory pressure.

The inventory pressures faced by property developers in recent years have also contributed to the large decline in house prices. Real estate developers in some second- and third-tier cities are overly reliant on real estate loans and have not effectively controlled inventory, resulting in high inventory pressure. This situation has forced developers to participate in the ** rolling competition, which ultimately leads to a decline in housing prices.

Third, demand is weakening.

The number of people who need to buy a home is relatively small because of the slowdown in economic growth, which is reflected in the persistence of a weak job market and sluggish consumption. As demand declines, the oversupply situation is getting worse, leading to a general rate of house prices**.

To sum up, the reasons for the current large decline in housing prices involve factors such as market supply and demand, policy restrictions and inventory pressure of developers. We should conscientiously regulate and control the market, strengthen policy guidance, and promote the stable and healthy development of the market, so as to achieve sustainable economic development.