What do you think is the relationship between the yield of the 10 year US Treasury bond and the exch

The huge debts hanging over the heads of US imperialism are always a problem, and there is no way to solve them, so don't talk about the revival of US imperialism. The financial slaughter of many people is obviously no longer good, and the transnational financial capital of Wall Street in various countries is the same as the anti-wolf, and it is difficult to play the previous means, otherwise the US imperialists will not hesitate for so many years, and the chairman of the Federal Reserve has changed for one term, but he has not yet made up his mind, and has been raising interest rates with saliva. And what is even more terrifying is that the US imperialists continue to record new lows in the rate of currency circulation.

Once the interest rate hike causes the yield of government bonds to rise sharply, the trend of the bond market bull market that has been in the past 30 years will be reversed. Will it be beyond the 70s? Hehe, from this point of view, controlling the order of the treasury bond market will also be one of the important tasks of the Fed.

When the real economy is overheated, inflation is high, and when the real economy is not, the employment rate is too low. 08 is the latter, the United States increased the money supply by increasing the base currency, lowering interest rates and other means, but the money did not flow to the real economy, but to the virtual economy and foreign markets. At this time, the federal interest rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the dollar index all fell, and the US stock index**.

The U.S. domestic market has stabilized after emerging markets thrived through the issuance of additional dollars and overdrafted. At this time, the increase in federal interest rates completes the trend of dollar appreciation and repatriation, which causes countries to sell US Treasuries for dollars, thereby pushing down US Treasury bonds** and pushing up Treasury yields. Initial federal interest rates, 10-year Treasury yields, dollar indexes, US stock indices are all **.

As the dollar returns, the Fed begins to shrink its balance sheet, further pushing up US Treasury yields, which in turn will prompt foreign dollar flows to US investment, which will further reduce US dollars in international markets. At this time, the expectation in the United States is that the federal interest rate and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise, but it will basically stabilize; The real economy began to strengthen, and the U.S. stock index began to **; The U.S. dollar index stabilized. <>

First of all, you have to understand what an interest rate is. What is the interest rate, the interest rate is the compensation for the opportunity cost and risk. In international capital investment, the yield of government bonds, you can approximate the opportunity cost of holding the country's currency for the corresponding time, and the difference between the country's interest rate and the yield of government bonds is the risk of holding the country's currency.

Therefore, most of the time, the yield on government bonds is higher than the interest rate, because holding currency is traditionally risk-free, so the risk of holding the currency of developed countries is negative in monetary terms. But when a country's interest rate is higher than the yield on government bonds over the same period, you have to be quite wary, because that often means – the capitalists judge that the country is on the verge of collapse. From here, you know that there is a strong correlation between Treasury yields and exchange rates.

But the connection is so complex that if you ask me what the connection is, it's really hard for me to explain it to you in a few words. Secondly, you have to understand that the exchange rate is a relative indicator, while the yield on Treasury bonds is an absolute indicator. To put it simply, the exchange rate is the ratio between the expected value of at least two or more countries' currencies, that is, to measure a country's exchange rate, you have to find at least a reference, and the yield of government bonds obviously does not need to find such a reference.

Just like the U.S. dollar index, it is a weighted relative ratio between the U.S. dollar and the currencies of the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Swiss dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the krona. Exchange rates and Treasury yields, one is relative and the other is frequent, they are not a type of data, not in the same dimension, if you insist on asking me the connection between the two, it is really difficult to say. So, if you want to understand the relationship between the exchange rate and Treasury yields more directly, you first have to convert Treasury yields from frequency to relative.

That is, the yield of the US Treasury is converted into the spread between the yield of the US Treasury and the yield of other countries' Treasuries. If you compare the spread between the U.S. dollar index and the yield of the U.S. dollar index and the U.S. dollar, the U.S. and Japan, the U.S. and the United States, the United States and Canada, you will immediately understand the relationship between the exchange rate and the yield spread of the U.S. dollar, and thus understand the relationship between the yield of the U.S. dollar and the exchange rate to a certain extent. Finally, the usual pill time, the current US imperialism has maintained an interest rate policy of almost zero interest rates for a long time, which corresponds to an unprecedented debt burden and a high current account deficit.

In other words, even if the Fed raises interest rates, US imperialism will not be able to tolerate the rapid rise in Treasury yields, otherwise the debt burden of US imperialism will be extremely severe. Therefore, it is foreseeable that if the US imperialists raise interest rates, the increase in Treasury yields will be quite limited, in other words, the Fed will be forced to suppress the US Treasury yields too fast**, thereby artificially increasing the risk of holding US dollars. So, don't be optimistic that interest rate hikes are good for the dollar.

The 10-year Treasury yield** in the United States actually indicates that the market's pessimistic expectations for the long term are heating up, but there is no need to pay too much attention to the fact that creating a new record low, because in the current context of excessive liquidity, it is normal for Treasuries to create new historical lows.

First of all, it is necessary to say that the yield of Treasury bonds means that the market is pessimistic about the long-term economy, and it may also indicate the long-term economic risk, which must have been understood by everyone, this is because when economic risks appear, everyone tends to maintain cash flow and buy longer-term Treasury bonds to hedge, and a large number of purchases have caused the rise of Treasury bonds and the rise of yields, so many people regard the change in Treasury yields as an early warning of long-term economic risks.

So does the record low in the 10-year Treasury yield mean that the economic crisis will be more intense than before? I can't think so.

In fact, if we look at the yield trend of long-term US Treasury bonds, we can see that in fact, the yield trend of the United States has been declining, which is closely related to the continuous issuance of global currencies and the continuous depreciation of the US dollar. Especially since the 2008 economic crisis, on the one hand, the Fed's long-term Treasury bonds purchased through three rounds of quantitative easing have remained on the balance sheet, and the balance sheet reduction has failed to reduce the number of Treasury bond purchases, according to the Fed's estimates, the Fed's own purchases have pushed down the yield of long-term Treasury bonds by 65 basis points, which is a heavy burden on the overall yield.

On the other hand, after the European debt crisis, Europe has been practicing negative interest rates for a long time and has maintained quantitative easing, which has put pressure on European yields and US Treasury yields, because a large amount of investment after the negative European Treasury bond yields have also moved out of Europe and into the US market, which has also depressed US Treasury yields.

Therefore, although the decline in the yield of long-term US Treasury bonds is indeed a warning of risk, the record low value does not mean that the risk is stronger than before, but only the result of the flood of monetary liquidity.

U.S. Treasury bonds are national bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury on behalf of the federal government. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield returned to the top, extending its overall intraday gains to nearly basis points.

The median U.S. 10-year Treasury yield generally fluctuates between this range.

It is generally around the right, in fact, it is not particularly high, and the fluctuation is still relatively large, because it is affected by various aspects.

The rate of return is between, and this rate of return is still relatively high, compared with other investment and financial management, this rate of return is okay.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is, the highest since January 2020. Recently, there has been an unusual signal in the global financial market, that is, the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States has continued to rise. Regarding the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States, it is a very important anchor in the global financial market, and it can be said to be an important measuring stick for all assets.

To put it simply, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States is equivalent to the cost of funds in the dollar. Under normal circumstances, when the Fed raises interest rates, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States rises, and when the Fed cuts interest rates, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States falls. But the relationship between the two is not so simple.

For example, the Federal Reserve is crazy about printing 3 trillion dollars in material stools, and Biden is also ready to borrow again to print trillions of dollars. Moreover, 1 5 of the total dollar money printed by the United States in the past 100 years has been printed in the past year. So in this case, why did the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rise instead of falling?

Explanations related to the US 10-year Treasury yield1) From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, the Fed, as the world's largest seller, or the seller of the dollar, will naturally sell itself and boast. Therefore, it is certainly not surprising that the Fed blamed the current rise in US Treasury yields on "the market's belief that the US economy will recover from the pandemic". Therefore, the Fed was still swearing that this was because the current vaccination in the United States was good, and the market's confidence in the recovery of the US economy increased, which led to the rise in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds.

But in fact, there is a glaring hole in this statement. That is, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States has been rising since August last year. Since October last year, a new round of the epidemic has broken out in the United States, and it is far more serious than the previous one in March, and the outbreak period of this new round of epidemic has continued to this day.

From August to November, when the epidemic in the United States was at its worst, the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was still on an upward trend, so it is difficult to attribute the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond to confidence in the recovery of the US economy.

2) From the perspective of the market, the international financial market has a psychological threshold for the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, and the thresholds of different institutions are not the same. For example, the tipping point of some institutions is set roughly, for example, Citi is set, while JPMorgan Chase believes that the tipping point is 2%. Overall, however, the tipping point for the US 10-year Treasury yield is generally agreed.

If the US 10-year Treasury yield breaks through, then financial markets will greatly increase their inflation concerns. The reason why financial markets are worried about inflation is because too high inflation may force the Fed to raise interest rates early.

1. Investors buyU.S. Treasurieswill lead to a portion of international capital flows to the United States.

2. U.S. Treasury yields.

The superficial rise is actually equivalent to increasing the amount of the dollar, and the scale of the US debt is huge, and the faster the interest rate is raised, the faster the depreciation will be.

3. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields is first and foremost due to fiscal pressure in the United States. In order to solve the fiscal crisis, the United States has issued bonds on a large scale, and the rise in yields means that the burden of interest repayment will increase in the future.

4. As the largest holder of U.S. bonds, the total amount of U.S. bonds held by foreign buyers will directly or indirectly affect the credit expansion in the United States, so they are the dollar exchange rate.

The key factor for the rise and fall is that if the demand for US bonds from overseas investors remains stagnant, US bonds will be sold off, which may trigger a crisis in the US domestic repo market and hit the US dollar exchange rate.

The ** of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond refers to the ** that we buy and sell Treasury bonds at the moment, and the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond.

Refers to U.S. Treasury bonds with a tenor maturity of 10 years.

The actual yield that a bond can get from buying it each year. For example, suppose we can buy a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond for $95 now, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has a face value, which is $100, and the coupon is also fixed, assuming that one year means that we can get interest yuan per year with $95, and ten years later, the U.S. Treasury.

Need to return 100 yuan to us.

The average annual earnings are:

Yuan; The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is:

Yuan; So we can understand that this yield is actually mainly determined by the volatility of the 10-year Treasury bond trading**. That is, in the above example, whether it is a treasury bond bought for 95 yuan or a treasury bond bought for 90 yuan, if the transaction of treasury bonds is ****, it means that the yield of treasury bonds will rise.

How did the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond come about?

It is determined by the state of supply and demand and the power of buyers and sellers in the market, and the US Treasury is the source of attack on the US 10-year Treasury bonds.

How changes in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields affect A-shares.

What about it? The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is an internationally recognized risk-free investment product, after all, the United States is now very strong. As long as the United States does not fall, the national debt can be cashed out, and the income can be obtained, the US debt.

When the yield is **, some of the large funds will be withdrawn from the risk assets and turned to holding US bonds to earn this risk-free return, so it will be bearish**.

This risky asset.