What monetary policy of the United States has imported inflation to the world

The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is a new type of financial crisis, and its internal mechanism is the lack of transparency of financial products, information asymmetry, and the gradual transfer of financial risks to investors. These risks spread from the housing market to the credit market, the capital market, from the financial sector to the economic field, and from the United States to the world through investment channels and capital channels.

The majority of the international economic community believes that although the subprime mortgage crisis has had a certain impact on the world economy, it cannot be judged that it will trigger a global economic crisis. The IMF recently said that the turbulence in international financial markets is still ongoing"Within control"。However, there are also a few who believe that the subprime mortgage crisis has the potential to lead to a reversal of the current cycle of the world economic boom.

Soros believes that the subprime mortgage crisis is the worst financial crisis in 60 years since World War II, and it is the end of the era of the dollar as a world currency. Financial Times critic Martin Wolf sees the subprime mortgage crisis as a crisis in the Anglo-Saxon financial system. American economist Roubini believes that the Fed's successive interest rate cuts will be difficult to prevent the US economy from falling into recession.

Based on the analysis of the available information, the author believes that the possibility of a world economic recession exists, and since the subprime mortgage crisis has not yet bottomed out, its uncertainty risk is more worthy of vigilance, and its impact on the global economy and finance should not be underestimated.

Excess liquidity and the subprime mortgage crisis.

After four consecutive years of rapid growth, the world economy showed signs of adjustment in 2007, with the simultaneous emergence of slowing pressures and the threat of inflation casting a shadow over the outlook for the world economy. The flood of liquidity has fueled the growth of the world economy and the assets of global commodity and financial markets**. ** The high inflation has spread around the world; The flood of liquidity amplifies the wealth of global investors"Confidence", bringing about the expansion of global credit.

Fundamentally, the subprime mortgage crisis is rooted in the time lag of monetary tightening and excess global liquidity.

Monetary tightening time lag.

Imported inflation means that the root cause of inflation is not endogenous to one country's market, but to foreign countries. The state authorizes the bank to issue the currency to transfer the currency from the issuing ** vault to the banking treasury and through it to the bank.

This so-called imported inflation is negligible compared to the inflation brought about by the contraction of our own real estate and foreign exchange settlement policies!

It is the quantitative easing policy practiced by the Federal Reserve.

The main debate of the monetary policy implemented by the United States and Europe is that the central bank affects the economic operation through interest rates, monetary volume and other means. Among them, the monetary policy of the United States is considered to be the initiator, which is mainly manifested in an independent central bank (Federal Reserve) and a free-floating exchange rate system. In the 1970s, the U.S. economy was under pressure from inflation and recession, and the Federal Reserve adopted a tight monetary policy, raising interest rates and monetary controls, resulting in an economic malaise.

Later, the United States and the central bank adopted a series of monetary and fiscal policy measures, such as cutting spending, deflation, etc., to revive the economy. Europe's monetary policy is mainly based on the European hail stove and the yuan as the main tool, and affects the economy through the European Central Bank's interest rate adjustment, monetary policy and foreign exchange intervention. In general, the monetary policies implemented by the United States and Europe are all aimed at maintaining economic stability and growth, but the specific measures and effects vary according to national circumstances.

The U.S. monetary policy will trigger fluctuations in China's financial cycle and economic cycle, and the financial cycle precedes the economic cycle and has an amplification effect, and there are differences in the explanatory ability of the U.S. quantitative and first-class monetary policies on the fluctuations of China's economic and financial cycles.

The spillover effect of changes in U.S. fiscal expenditure on China's real economy in different periods has significant dynamic characteristics, and the impact of changes in U.S. transfer payments and consumer spending on China's real economy is more subtle and significant.

In the context of the implementation of substantial monetary and fiscal policies in the United States, it is more important for China to clarify the spillover effects and mechanisms of U.S. policies on China, and to take precautions and pursue advantages and avoid disadvantages.

The weakening of the US dollar is beneficial to China's market entities that borrow US dollars for foreign debt, but the strengthening of the US dollar will directly affect their debt service burden, which is actually a manifestation of currency mismatch. In addition, with the increase in the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the people's first currency against the US dollar will have a greater impact on the foreign exchange income (loss) of enterprises. For some enterprises with relatively meager export profits, exchange losses can even eat up profits.

This requires enterprises to establish the concept of exchange rate risk neutrality and take appropriate measures to avoid exchange rate risks.

These two problems just show that the RMB exchange rate is still undervalued under the control of the central bank (managed floating exchange rate).

Question 1: Under the current fundamental conditions, the RMB exchange rate is determined by the domestic US dollar and the people's market supply and demand, and the market supply and demand is determined by the direction of the short-term net flow of funds, there is still a large amount of net inflow of funds, in this context the RMB should appreciate sharply, but the actual situation is that the RMB exchange rate rise is greatly suppressed by the central bank, and the inflation factor is not the main factor in the current RMB exchange rate changes, and has no impact on the exchange rate trend, but after inflation adjustment, The real appreciation of the renminbi was higher than the nominal appreciation.

Question 2: Or because the current exchange rate has not reached the equilibrium exchange rate, resulting in a serious imbalance in the balance of payments, the RMB needs to have a greater appreciation to have a serious impact on export enterprises. At present, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is still relatively moderate, and part of the cost can be digested through the sharing of domestic enterprises and overseas importers, so it has a certain adverse impact on the income and expenditure under **, but the impact is not very large.

In the balance of payments, due to the interest rate differential between the RMB and the US dollar, and the expectation of appreciation of the RMB, the surplus under the capital account continues to remain high, resulting in an excessively large surplus in the balance of payments.

Summary. Hello dear! China's monetary policy has always attached importance to the function of structural adjustment, which is not only related to the continuation of some regulatory habits during the planned economy period and China's unique economic system and other institutional factors, but also has the practical requirements of economic and financial structure imbalance, imperfect market mechanism, economic transformation and industrial development.

Hello dear! China's monetary policy has always attached great importance to structural adjustment, which is not only related to the continuation of some regulatory habits during the planned economy period and China's unique economic system and other institutional factors, but also has the practical requirements of economic and financial structure imbalance, imperfect market mechanism, economic transformation and industrial development.

Hello dear! Therefore, China's structural monetary policy is very practical. In contrast, the market economy system of the developed economies in the West is relatively mature, and the financial development and services are more perfect, resulting in their monetary policies often only need to focus on aggregate regulation and control, and the policy objectives are relatively solid, the scope of operation is small, and the continuity is better, while structural adjustment is relatively rare.

Yes, the quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve is one of the reasons for the high inflation in the global economy.

Quantitative easing monetary policy refers to a monetary policy in which banks increase the amount of money by purchasing assets such as treasury bonds. During the QE period, banks injected large amounts of liquidity into the market to support economic growth and stabilize prices.

However, the effect of quantitative easing (QE) is not so straightforward and obvious, as its effect takes some time to materialize. In addition, quantitative easing (QE) has the potential to lead to currency depreciation and inflation. When the amount of money increases, the purchasing power of money decreases, and the price of goods increases, which leads to inflation.

Therefore, the quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve is one of the reasons for the high inflation in the global economy, but it is not the only one. High inflation in the global economy is also affected by a variety of factors, such as the imbalance between supply and hunger, raw materials, geopolitical risks, etc.

The current economic policy of the United States may affect the volume of our international exports, but it has no direct impact on the domestic inflation rate, deposit and loan interest rate, and national tax revenue. In other words, as long as we firmly enforce the principle of not issuing too much money, under the premise of such a large manufacturing capacity, there will be an appropriate surplus of goods, and there will be no serious inflation.

The negative correlation between inflation and exchange rates is mainly due to the relationship between the real and nominal exchange rates. Suppose there are two countries, country A and country B, where country A has x currency and country B has Y, where country A has a higher inflation level than country B. Here we can assume that the inflation rate in country A is 20% in a year, and the inflation rate in country B is 0% in a year, and the current exchange rate of x to y is 1:

The economic policy of the United States has been constantly lowering the exchange rate of the renminbi. The probability of inflation increases dramatically. It's an imbalance in interest rates. Taxation. Leaning more towards the United States. It is an abnormal international ** way.