What does demographic dividend mean? What does the demographic dividend mean in layman s terms

So-called"Demographic dividend refers to the fact that a country's working-age population accounts for a large proportion of the total population, and the dependency rate is relatively low, which creates favorable demographic conditions for economic development, and the economy of the whole country presents a situation of high savings, high investment and high growth.

The dividends brought by demographic change to economic development include not only the increase in labor supply, but also the expansion of savings and human capital.

Investments and returns are rising. Since the population is most likely to accumulate savings in the 40-60 age group, the more people who live to this age, the more savings will bring. More savings means more capital.

An increase in the amount of capital per worker increases labor productivity.

Calculation method of demographic dividend:

One way to estimate the demographic dividend is to use time series.

The macro-demographic economic data are used by the mathematical statistical method of multiple regression, through the regression equation.

to observe the contribution of demographic change to the explanatory power of economic growth. Another way to calculate the demographic dividend.

By calculating the number of effective producers and effective consumers, the ratio of these two types of people is then used as the dependency ratio. Note that the dependency ratio used here is not the same as what is commonly referred to as the dependency ratio.

This method of calculating the demographic dividend is to take the growth rate of output per capita, an indicator of economic change.

It is broken down into two parts, namely, the growth rate of output per effective producer and the growth rate of dependency ratio. Of these two components, the first is labor productivity and the second is demographic factors.

The above content reference: Encyclopedia - Demographic Dividend.

The population structure is composed of young and middle-aged workers, with a low average age, and can provide a steady stream of labor.

The so-called "demographic dividend" refers to the fact that a country's working-age population accounts for a large proportion of the total population, and the dependency rate is relatively low, creating favorable demographic conditions for economic development, and the entire country's economy is in a situation of high savings, high investment and high growth.

Unfavorable code closed effect:

1. "Dividends" correspond to "debts" in many cases.

2. Specifically, the "population debt" corresponding to the "demographic dividend" is the impact of accelerating population aging.

3. The aging of the population will affect the sustainable growth ability of China's economy in many aspects. First of all, the aging population will bring about an increase in the social dependency ratio, and the burden and cost of the late labor force will increase. Second, aging will increase the proportion of the consumer population and reduce the proportion of the productive population. The effects of the above three aspects will weaken the competitiveness of the economy to a certain extent, and further affect the vitality of sustainable economic growth.

4. The age structure of the labor force is "aging", which will seriously affect labor productivity.

Demographic dividend, an economic term, refers to a country's working-age population accounts for a large proportion of the total population, and the dependency rate is relatively low, creating favorable demographic conditions for economic development, and the entire country's economy is in a situation of high savings, high investment and high growth.

Short-term influencing factors In the short term, there are several factors that affect the realization of the demographic dividend:

1. If the employment situation in China is very severe and may deteriorate further in the future, this will lead to insufficient employment of the working-age population. In this way, a considerable part of the working-age population will become a population that needs to be burdened and supported by society, but this part of the population will not be able to create wealth, resulting in a great waste of labor resources.

2. The general low quality of rural labor restricts the realization of the demographic dividend. From the perspective of the distribution of the working-age population, the bulk of the Chinese population dividend is in the rural areas, and there are abundant labor resources in rural areas, and a large number of rural labor force people have come out of the land and gone to the cities and developed areas.

3. Because the income of farmers entering the city has not increased, the cost of entering the city is obvious, which has reduced the desire of farmers to enter the city. This is one of the important reasons why there was a "shortage of migrant workers" in some parts of China after the exemption of agricultural tax (that is, the relative increase in agricultural income).

It's what it means to make a profit from the population. Specifically, the proportion of the working population is high, because there is no pressure to support and labor surplus, resulting in low labor costs, so as to gain a low-cost advantage in the world market competition.

Advantages: At this stage, as long as the simple pile of people can obtain a lot of profits, the capitalists also tend to expand investment, expand production, recruit more people, so that all kinds of industries have been developed rapidly.

Disadvantages: often the development of low-tech content, relying on the low-end industry of manpower, and the population can not grow indefinitely, so today's demographic dividend is tomorrow's population burden, if you can not complete the industrial transformation in the demographic dividend stage, it will enter the recession.

The demographic dividend is the dividend of the rich, the accumulation of the blood, sweat and bones of the poor, and the consumables that people can throw away at any time like objects.

The demographic dividend can be divided into two types.

The first type: the demographic dividend refers to the fact that the labor force population is very large, so that it can provide cheap labor, and there is sufficient labor supply and high savings rate in the economy;

Second: the demographic dividend refers to the aging of the population, especially the elderly workers are expected to grow old in the future, there will be a stronger incentive to bury the savior, thus forming additional accumulation.

The second demographic dividend begins to accumulate when the first demographic dividend is about to end, and the second demographic dividend can be continued indefinitely. Due to the long-term demographic dividend, economic growth bends that deviate from resource endowments may be formed.

Demographic dividend refers to the fact that a country's working-age population accounts for a large proportion of the total population, and the dependency rate is relatively low, which creates favorable demographic conditions for economic development, and the economy of the whole country presents a situation of high savings, high investment and high growth.

In many cases, dividends correspond to debts, so when we enjoy the rich returns of the demographic dividend, we must not forget the demographic liabilities that we may face in the future.

The role of the demographic dividend.

Generally speaking, when a country's working-age population stops growing, the problem of labor shortage quickly arises. However, the rural-urban dichotomy makes a big difference in China, where a large rural population is still able to provide labor resources for cities and towns for a long time. China is in the midst of rapid urbanization.

If the urban population increases by one percentage point per year, the working-age population will increase by about 15 million per year.

Assuming that China enters a stage of relative development of crude lead, and most people, such as 70%, will choose to live in cities and towns, then the migration of rural labor to cities and towns will continue for more than 20 years. As a result, China still appears to have an abundant workforce for the foreseeable future**. Judging from the good supply of labor in the spring period, the demographic dividend will continue to promote the rapid growth of China's economy.