How will China s macro economy change in 2012?

It is difficult for economic growth to really pick up.

At the macroeconomic level, affected by the decline in external demand and real estate investment, as well as the shortage of funds, the downward trend of China's real economic growth next year is significant, and will drive inflation down rapidly. This trend is unlikely to end in the next two quarters, and inflation is expected to fall below 3% in the second quarter of next year.

The bottom of the economy is likely to appear in the first quarter of next year, and the economy will have a rapid ** in the second quarter of next year, but whether such a ** means that economic growth can pick up steadily is still very uncertain. The main reason is that, from the perspective of the troika driving economic growth, the impetus to support the economic growth is insufficient, and in the context of debt reduction in European countries, export growth will be weak; The growth rate of real estate investment will continue to decline; The only thing that can be counted on is whether there is a significant acceleration in consumption and private sector investment to offset other declines, and the growth of private sector investment depends on a substantial easing of the financial sector.

In the short term, the reduction of the deposit ratio has further restored the liquidity of the interbank market, but whether the liquidity of the real economy turns around depends on the restrictions on the deposit-loan ratio of banks, the intensity and progress of credit delivery, and the further trend of foreign exchange appropriation. The correction in the housing market may also be affecting the trend of liquidity, which we expect to gradually ease, but the current situation still needs to be seen more cautiously and wait for the fall in broad-spectrum interest rates to confirm.

As China's economy is facing the three major inflection points of savings, investment and import and export, and lacks the impetus to drive the economic rebound, it is difficult for the economy to truly recover in the second half of next year, and the rebound in the second quarter is only a technical one.

**Yu Golden Axe**Q&A Network.

In 2012, A-shares operated in the range of 2200-2800 and "high before and low after":

1) The decline in CPI and GDP growth has brought policy adjustments and liquidity easing expectations, and we are optimistic about the first quarter;

2) Bearish on the second and third quarters of the second and third quarters of the concern about the expiration of real estate trusts, the reduction of land finance, the pressure of lifting the ban on small-capitalization stocks, and the suppression of the market by the Sino-US game;

3) The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the United States ** election have been finalized, so that the bottom will be determined in the fourth quarter.

**Yu Golden Axe**Q&A Network.

China's economy will appear a kind of inflation, and the dilemma of austerity, the state prints a large amount of money, seriously damages the country's economic individuals, the theft of personal wealth, is extremely irresponsible, has lost many hearts, in the face of the future form, quite not optimistic, this time if China's economy is adjusted normally, it will take 4-5 years, if it is a big money again. Ten years of recovery is difficult.

Overall smooth, slightly downward. If something goes wrong in the European bond market, it's hard to say.

**The Economic Work Conference set the tone for macroeconomic policy in 2012"Seek progress while maintaining stability"。We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode and the adjustment of the economic structure, focus on expanding domestic demand, and focus on strengthening independent innovation and energy conservation and emission reduction.

In 2012, the GDP growth rate will continue to decline, and it is expected that the annual GDP growth rate will be around. The rate of decline in the first half of the year will be more obvious, and the second half of the year will gradually stabilize. Nominal GDP growth was around 14%.

Against the backdrop of a slowdown and declining inflationary pressures, the monetary policy environment will be better in 2012 than in 2011. Although there is still great uncertainty about the strength of future policy adjustments, compared with 2011, stability maintenance + structural adjustment will be a clearer expectation.

In 2012, China's economic policy was still based on stability and development. During the implementation of the tightening macroeconomic policy, China's small and medium-sized enterprises have encountered great difficulties, especially in terms of financing, and they are facing a shortage of funds, and many small and medium-sized enterprises have closed down and gone bankrupt.

The overall situation is stable and rising. The trend will become clear at the end of the year.

In 2012, China faced several challenges, starting with the trend of the real estate market, because it is not only about people's livelihood, but also about many industries, such as materials, interior decoration, home appliances and even manufacturing. In addition, local finances will also be affected.

The second challenge lies in the private economy. One trend that emerged after the financial crisis was the excessive advance of the state and the retreat of the people, squeezing many private enterprises into a situation where they could only survive by relying on usury. Especially in the past six months, the pressure on private enterprises has increased sharply.

But at the same time, 90% of the annual job creation comes from small and medium-sized enterprises, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises. Against the backdrop of a shortage of funds for private enterprises, if the situation deteriorates further in 2012, the problems of private enterprises will shift from economic problems to social, employment and stability problems.

The third challenge comes from the debt crisis abroad, especially in Europe, and the deep-seated problems of the euro, which will have an impact on Chinese exports, and the impact will be more concrete and severe in 2012.

On the other hand, on China's behalf, the U.S. economy is not as pessimistic as many predicted. Relatively speaking, the problems of the United States are very different from those of Europe. The biggest problem in Europe is that the fiscal deficit and the national debt are both high, and the proportion of tax to GDP is too high, and the fiscal tax revenue of eurozone countries accounts for 41% of GDP.

There are only two options for Europe to change the current situation: on the one hand, it is to increase taxes, but this road will not work, and the economic blow will be particularly large and the society cannot bear it; On the other hand, reducing spending will also have a very big impact on the economy, and it will not work. In contrast, the United States is different.

In 2011, the U.S. fiscal deficit was about 10% of GDP, higher than that of the European Union, and the total level of national debt was about 100% of GDP. But if you look at the level of taxation in the United States, it's actually very low. Combined, federal and local taxes combined combined for 2011 the total tax level was 24% of GDP.

So the problem in the United States is that it is taxed less.

On this issue, I would like to recommend you to take a look at Lang Xianping's recent views on China's economy, which he said very thoroughly. The approximate meaning is similar to what the previous friend talked about, but I just added that the manufacturing and processing industries that China has relied on for a long time will recall a large number of enterprises after the Occupy Wall Street movement in the United States, and China's rising labor force has basically no advantage.

The situation boils down to dire straits.