In which situations the Delphi method is suitable to work

The Delphi method is characterized by anonymity, feedback, and statistics.

1. Anonymity

This is because this approach involves all members of the expert group not meeting directly, but only communicating by correspondence, so that the influence of authority can be eliminated. The experts who are engaged in ** are stupid with each other, and they don't know which other people are participating in **, they exchange ideas in complete anonymity. The Delphi method, which was later improved, allowed experts to meet for thematic discussions.

2. Feedback

This method needs to go through 3 or 4 rounds of information feedback, and in each feedback, the investigation team and the expert group can conduct in-depth research, so that the final results can basically reflect the basic ideas and understanding of the experts, so the results are more objective and credible. Communication among group members is achieved through questions from the organizers, which usually take several rounds of feedback to complete**.

3. Statistical

The most typical group results reflect the views of the majority, with the views of the minority mentioned in general terms, but the statistics do not, reporting a median and two quarters, half of which fall within two quarters and half outside two quarters. Each point of view is included in the statistics, which avoids the shortcomings of the expert conference method, which only reflects the majority view. Dan is empty.

Principles of the Delphi Law:

1. The selected experts should have a certain degree of representativeness and authority.

2. Before proceeding, the support of the participants should be obtained to ensure that they can seriously carry out each ** to improve the effectiveness of the **. At the same time, it is also necessary to explain the significance and role of ** to the top of the organization, and obtain the support of decision-makers and other senior managers.

3. The design of the question list should be accurate, not to cause ambiguity, the questions to be consulted should not be too many at a time, do not ask questions that are not related to the purpose of the first question, and the questions included in the consultation should not contain each other; The questions asked should be those that all experts could answer and, as far as possible, should be understood from the same point of view.

4. When conducting statistical analysis, different issues should be treated differently, and different weights should be given to the authority of different experts instead of generalization.

5. The information provided to the expert should be as sufficient as possible to enable him or her to make a judgment.

b. Qualitative**. As a subjective and qualitative method, the Delphi method can not only be used in the field, but also can be widely used in the establishment of various evaluation index systems and the determination of specific indicators.

Advantages and disadvantages of using the Delphi method:

The advantages of the Delphi method are: it can speed up and save money; A variety of different but valuable perspectives and opinions can be obtained; It is suitable for long-term ** and new products**, especially when there is insufficient historical data or many unpredictable factors.

The disadvantages of the Delphi method are that it may not be reliable for the customer base or product in different regions; Responsibilities are scattered; The opinions of experts may sometimes be incomplete or unrealistic.

1. Provide experts with sufficient information so that they have sufficient basis to make judgments. For example, to provide experts with historical information and statistical analysis results on the personnel arrangements and business trends of the grooming industry, etc.;

2. The questions asked should be questions that experts can ask;

3. Allow experts to make rough estimates, and do not require precision. However, experts could be asked to indicate the accuracy of the projected figures;

4. Simplify the process as much as possible and don't ask questions that have nothing to do with the world;

5. Ensure that all experts can understand employee classification and other relevant definitions from the same perspective;

6. Explain to the experts the significance of ** to the enterprise and the subordinate units of the downhill loss, so as to win their support for the Delphi method.