What is the Delphi Method? Brief introduction! Thank you 5

There are many methods that can be used in the group decision-making process, such as brainstorming, named group techniques, ladder techniques, and the Delphi methodAlso known as expert assessment. (Note:.)

Delphi** in the Greek temple of Delphi, the most famous quote is Know thyself).

The Delphi method is a back-to-back decision-making technique with experts providing feedback. Conditions of use: Brainstorming is a well-known group solution, but due to the uneven level of members in the group, it is not very effective in solving some complex and high-impact problems.

At this time, the advantage of Del's illegality is more obvious.

The specific methods are:1Ask group members to come up with as many solutions to a problem as possible 2

The expert organizes one piece of the group members and feeds back the results to member 3After receiving the feedback, the group members will come up with a new solution to the problem just now3The experts then collate and provide feedback, knowing that the community agrees on the issue.

Since the Delphi method does not require the team to discuss face-to-face, it can avoid interpersonal conflicts due to face-to-face arguments, but this method is more time-consuming.

In fact, it is an improved expert method.

Find a group of experts to provide relevant opinions back-to-back, summarize them, conduct a second evaluation, and so on.

After reading it, the introduction in the encyclopedia is clearer.

Delphi Method. Essentially, it is an anonymous method of feedback. The practice is to obtain the opinions of experts on the most important issues, sort, summarize, and count, and then anonymously feedback to the experts, solicit opinions again, concentrate again, and then feedback, until a stable opinion is obtained.

The process can be briefly illustrated as follows:

Anonymous solicitation of expert opinions - induction, statistics - anonymous feedback - induction, statistics ......After a few rounds, stop.

In short, it is a process of collective and anonymous exchange of ideas in the form of correspondence. It has three distinct features that distinguish it from other expert methods. They are: anonymity, multiple feedback, statistics of the group.

1) Anonymity. Anonymity is an extremely important feature of the Delphi method, where the experts who work on the law do not know each other's participation and exchange ideas in complete anonymity.

2) Multiple times with controlled feedback. The communication of the group members is achieved through questions from the organizers. It usually takes several rounds of feedback to complete**.

3) Statistics of the group. In the past, the most typical outcome of a group was to reflect the views of the majority, with the views of the minority mentioned in general terms. However, this does not indicate the status of the Panel's dissenting views.

This is not the case with statistics, which report a median.

and two quarters, half of which fall within the two quarters and half outside the two quarters. In this way, each point of view is included in such statistics, avoiding another drawback of the expert meeting methodology.

The significance of the median and upper and lower equinoxes can be illustrated by the following example:

If there are 13 people, the ** result of the time of a certain event is as follows:

1985, 1987, 1990, 1990, 1990, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1995, 1997, 1997, 2000, never happens.

The median of the lower equinox is the upper equinox.

Generally speaking, if the results of the time of a certain event are as follows (from small to large):

x1,x2,x3,……xn

When n=2k+1, x is =xk+1 and k is an integer.

When n=2k, x in = (xk+xk+1) 2

The odd-even principle of the upper and lower equinoxes is treated according to the principle similar to the above.

The Delphi method refers to a method of collecting and summarizing opinions through a series of anonymous expert surveys. It takes its name from the temple of Mount Delphi, where the Greek god Apollo was located, because it was here that the ancient Greeks would seek prophecy and advice from the gods.

In the Delphi method, experts gradually approach agreement through a series of confessional questionnaires, surveys, and responses. In each round of the survey, participants are asked to provide their opinions on a particular issue. They then receive statistical summaries of other expert opinions and are asked to express their opinions again.

This process is repeated several times until there is agreement or near agreement among the participants.

The Delphi method is widely used in ** and decision-making, especially when it is necessary to deal with uncertainty or issues involving multiple areas of expertise.

The Delphi method is also known as the expert investigation method. The Delphi method is essentially an anonymous feedback method, which was initiated and implemented by the RAND Corporation of the United States in 1946. The method is to form a special organization by the enterprise, including a number of experts and business organizers, in accordance with the prescribed procedures, back to back to consult experts on the future market opinions or judgments, and then carry out the first method.

The general process is to obtain the opinions of experts on the most important issues, sort, summarize, and count, and then anonymously feedback to the experts, solicit opinions again, and then concentrate, and then feedback, until they get a consistent opinion. <

The Delphi method is also known as the expert investigation method. The Delphi method is essentially an anonymous feedback method, which was initiated and implemented by the RAND Corporation of the United States in 1946. The method is to form a special organization by the enterprise, including a number of experts and business organizers, in accordance with the prescribed procedures, back to back to consult experts on the future market opinions or judgments, and then carry out the first method.

The general process is to obtain the opinions of experts on the most important issues, sort, summarize, and count, and then anonymously feedback to the experts, solicit opinions again, and then concentrate, and then feedback, until they get a consistent opinion.