What are the reasons for the large fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 201

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar hit a two-year low, what is the reason for the exchange rate, first of all, because China is facing the impact of inflation, and secondly, the penetration rate of the US dollar in the market is very high, many countries use the US dollar as the settlement currency, and then some US policies have made many allies begin to choose to abandon the use of RMB as the settlement currency, and the other is that oil resources are more important, so the purchasing power of the US dollar is also increasing. It is necessary to explain and analyze the reasons why the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit a two-year low from the following four aspects, resulting in the exchange rate.

First, because China is facing the impact of inflation

First of all, oil resources are more important, so the purchasing power of the US dollar is also increasing, and for China, the problem of inflation is also deep in all aspects, so the purchasing power of the domestic RMB is declining, which is also an inevitable trend.

Second, the penetration rate of the US dollar in the market is very high, and many countries use the US dollar as the settlement currency

The second is that oil resources are more important, so the purchasing power of the dollar is also improving, and the penetration rate of the dollar in the market is still very high, which is reflected in many aspects, mainly because many commercial fields have used the corresponding dollar as the settlement currency.

Third, some U.S. policies have caused many allies to choose to abandon the use of the renminbi as a settlement currency

In addition, some U.S. policies have caused many allies to choose to abandon the use of the renminbi as a settlement currency, and for the U.S., some policies can influence some decisions of U.S. allies, which has played a lot of disadvantageous roles.

Fourth, oil resources are becoming more important, so the purchasing power of the dollar is also increasing

In addition, oil resources are more important, so the purchasing power of the dollar is also increasing, and the international situation is still relatively rigorous for oil, so it indirectly enhances the purchasing power of the United States.

Precautions that should be done in China:

The construction of multiple channels should be strengthened.

Behind the continuous depreciation of the renminbi is the strengthening of the dollar index. The main reason for the strength of the US dollar this round is the aggressive interest rate hike strategy that the Federal Reserve must adopt to fight inflation.

First, the Fed's Powell's "hawkish voice" greatly exceeded expectations, and the United States will continue to tighten monetary policy in the future, and the expectation of interest rate hikes will rise sharply; Second, China's domestic interest rate cuts. This "contrast" of ups and downs and the "dislocation" of policies have led to a rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the short term.

The first is that the United States will continue to tighten monetary policy in the future, and the expectation of interest rate hikes will rise sharply, that is, the domestic exchange rate will be reduced.

$1 = RMB.

Since 2002, the US dollar has been sustained**. In a basket of currencies, the dollar has depreciated by 37 per cent since 2001. After September 2007, affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, the US dollar showed a sharp trend, and the exchange rate against 16 major currencies fell across the board.

In 2008, the direction of the US dollar exchange rate was full of uncertainties. Due to the possibility of a downturn or even recession in the U.S. economy, the possibility of a worsening subprime mortgage crisis, and the impact on investors' confidence in holding U.S. dollar assets, and the central banks of various countries have ** U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar may continue to trend in 2008.

However, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to remain sustained after a brief downturn as the U.S. current account deficit has been reduced to some extent.

On June 18, 2010, before the PBOC announced that it would further promote the exchange rate reform, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was.

With the announcement of the central parity of the RMB exchange rate on December 31, the average exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar for the whole of 2010 has finally settled. In 2010, the average central parity of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated compared with the previous year, and the appreciation was very small, even far less than that in 2009.

In December, the opening price, the ending price, the highest price, the lowest price, and the monthly average central price of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar were month-on-month increases from the previous month and appreciation from the same month last year.

Among them, it is also the most ** of the year, and the lowest price of the whole year is, the difference between the most ** and the lowest price.

From January to December, the opening price, the closing price, the highest price, the lowest price, and the annual average middle price of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

In June 2010, the exchange rate reform was restarted, and the renminbi began to appreciate against the US dollar.

The previous mid-price was:

Date Exchange Bid Price (Yuan) Banknote Buying Price (Yuan) Banknote Selling Price Exchange Rate Selling Price Mid Price.

In the past two years, the overall trend of the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has not changed, and it is still in the process of continuing. It's just that last year, the renminbi appreciated unilaterally against the U.S. dollar, and this year, under the pressure of the central bank, the renminbi exchange rate has walked out of a two-way fluctuating trend against the U.S. dollar, falling first and then rising. When the U.S. dollar index was weaker in the early stage, the renminbi showed a sharp ** against the US dollar, and the US dollar index has seen a sharp ** recently, but the yuan is still appreciating against the US dollar.

Therefore, from the fundamentals of the past two years, the market logic of RMB appreciation against the US dollar has not changed, the double surplus of the balance of payments is the main factor affecting the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and the central bank's control of the RMB exchange rate has slowed down the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, but has greatly extended the duration of the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and it is the excessive intervention of the central bank. However, there will be no trend change in the trend of the renminbi against the US dollar in the next one or two years.