Why is volatility in personal investments considered to be the main cause of fluctuations in economi

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Of course, the development of the macroeconomy is affected by fiscal policy and monetary policy, therefore, we analyze the impact of the macroeconomy on investment from the perspective of how these two policies affect investment.

In fiscal policy, taxation and transfer payments (construction of some infrastructure, subsidies, etc.) are the main means of fiscal policy, through which the people's consumption and investment can be promoted, which in turn affects employment, thereby affecting the people's income level, and then has an impact on investment. In monetary policy, it is the level of interest rates that ultimately affects. Interest rates change.

First, it will affect the borrowing level of the whole society, which in turn will affect the development of the real economy, and will also have a direct or indirect impact on the investment industry.

Second, the overnight bank lending rate is usually regarded as the benchmark interest rate, and its changes have a direct role in pointing to some ** interest rates;

Friends, our capital market is closely linked with the pace of national development and major policies at any time, and it will be reflected in the wind and rain!

Answer] :(1) The deviation of real economic growth from potential economic growth is called economic volatility.

2) There are many factors that affect economic fluctuations, the main ones are:

Changes in the investment rate. Generally speaking, there is a positive correlation between the investment rate and the economic growth rate. When the rate of investment remains within the limits allowed by the rate of accumulation, the growth of investment will contribute to the normal growth of the economy; When the growth rate of investment exceeds the limit of the accumulation rate, it will lead to a shortage of investment goods, the extension of the investment cycle, and the slowdown of the formation of new production capacity, which in turn will lead to a decline in the overall investment efficiency and ultimately a decline in the real economic growth rate.

Therefore, how to maintain a moderate investment rate has become an important factor affecting economic fluctuations.

Fluctuations in consumer demand. Consumer demand is an important part of the aggregate demand of society. The lack of consumer demand will lead to the total social demand being less than the total social output, which means that a part of the total social product cannot be realized.

The lack of consumer demand leads to a decline in output and a rise in unemployment, which in turn reduces the real rate of economic growth. On the other hand, when consumer demand is excessive, aggregate social demand will exceed aggregate social output, resulting in an excessively rapid growth rate of real economic growth. It can be seen that fluctuations in consumption levels will also cause fluctuations in real economic growth.

The adjustment of the industrial structure will be the acre and the transformation. The rationalization of the industrial structure can promote economic growth; The distortion and backwardness of the industrial structure will restrict economic growth. Therefore, changes in industrial structure are important factors that cause fluctuations in economic growth.

Resource supply. The process of economic growth is the process of putting different factors of production together and putting them into production. Economic growth requires the use of various resources such as raw materials, labor, and capital.

When resources are overutilized, the economy will grow at a super-high speed; When the supply of resources is insufficient, the rate of economic growth will decline rapidly. Therefore, whether the supply of resources is suitable for Sun Yuansen has become an important factor in maintaining steady economic growth.

The state of technological change. Technological changes are the most important contributor to economic fluctuations. When technology advances, there is a higher rate of economic growth. Conversely, when technology goes backwards, the economy falls into recession.

Changes in the economic system. Changes in the economic system will have a profound impact on the economic cycle. Under the planned economic system, due to the long-term existence of "soft budget constraints" in local governments and enterprises, investment demand always greatly exceeds the limit of the accumulation level, so that the aggregate social demand exceeds the total social output, the actual economic growth rate exceeds the potential economic growth rate, and the economy is often in a state of overheating.

When this state of economic overheating is suppressed, the actual economic operation often falls into a recession phase. Therefore, under the planned economic system, economic fluctuations are often much more serious than those under the market economy due to institutional and artificial reasons.

Changes in psychological expectations. The instability of psychological expectations will affect investment, consumption and other behaviors, which in turn will affect the aggregate demand of society and cause economic fluctuations. In addition to these factors mentioned above, there are other factors, such as changes in imports and exports.

There are many reasons for cyclical fluctuations in economic operation, mainly including:

1. Changes in the investment rate. In general, there is a positive correlation between investing in economic growth. The relatively rapid growth of investment will lead to a relatively rapid growth of the national economy.

Slow growth in investment can also lead to a decline in economic growth. Of course, the relationship between investment in economic growth also depends on the efficiency of investment.

2. Fluctuations in consumer demand. Insufficient consumer demand leads to aggregate demand being less than aggregate supply, which in turn leads to a decline in output and an increase in unemployment, which in turn leads to a decline in the rate of economic growth.

3. The state of technological progress. The emergence of a new technology often brings a new industry, sometimes bringing about drastic changes in the entire economic structure. When technological progress is faster, the rate of economic growth is higher; When technological progress is slow, economic growth is slower.

4. Expected changes. People's judgments about economic prospects often affect the decision-making behavior of economic agents.

5. Changes in the economic system.

6. The impact of international economic factors.

Economic cycle: business cycle: also known as business cycle, business cycle, economic cycle generally refers to the regular expansion and contraction of economic activities along the overall trend of economic development.

It is the fluctuation of gross national output, total income and total employment, and the alternating or cyclical fluctuation of national income or the expansion and contraction of general economic activity.

Stock price fluctuation: Stock price fluctuation refers to the change pattern of ****, which is manifested as a fluctuating state in which there is an opposite small trend movement in the general trend. There are three main trends in the state of stock price fluctuations: trend fluctuations, trend fluctuations, and non-trend fluctuations.

The relationship between the economic cycle and the changes in the economic cycle.

1. As the saying goes, the market is the barometer of the economy, and the economy will also have an impact on the market to a certain extent. The economy generally presents a cyclical picture, and the study of the economic cycle plays an important role in grasping the trend. Opening an account is the starting point for entering, and there is still a lot of knowledge you need to know about investment, and the following is a brief explanation of the impact of the economic cycle on the first place.

2. The economic cycle is a continuous process, which is manifested by the alternation of expansion and contraction. At a certain time, output, interest rates, and employment continue to rise until there is a peak of prosperity, and then there may be a recession, and output, product sales, interest rates, and employment begin to decline until there is a trough depression. The obvious characteristics of the depression stage are a serious shortage of demand, a relatively serious overproduction, a decline in sales, a low level of corporate profitability, a contraction in production, a large number of bankruptcies and bankruptcies, and an increase in unemployment.

3. The next step is for the economy to recover again and enter a new economic cycle. **The market is a synthesis of people's expectations of the economic situation, which more comprehensively reflects people's personal feelings about the relevant information shown in the process of economic development. This expectation will inevitably be reflected in the investment behavior of investors, thus affecting the market.

Since stock prices reflect expectations of the economic situation, their performance must be ahead of the actual performance of the economy (unless the expectations are skewed, and the economic situation itself reacts to the stock price).

4. When the economy continues to recession to the end, that is, the depression period, all industries are sluggish, investors have stayed away from the market, and daily transactions are scarce. At this time, those investors who have the vision and are constantly collecting and analyzing the relevant economic situation and making reasonable judgments have been silently absorbing**, and the stock price has slowly risen. By the time the depression was gone and the economy was recovering, stock prices had actually risen to a certain level.

On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation, those people of insight believe that the economy will not create another boom, so they quietly throw out, although the stock price is still in the first place, but the supply and demand forces are gradually changing. When the economic situation is gradually recognized by more investors, and supply and demand tend to balance until there is an oversupply, the stock price will begin**. The opposite of this can happen when the economic situation develops as expected and towards a recession.

The fluctuations of the economic cycle are complex macroeconomic changes.

There are many reasons for the comprehensive reflection of volume fluctuations, among which the fluctuation of DU aggregate demand has an important impact on the economic cycle. For China, the impact of aggregate demand on the economy has become increasingly far-reaching, especially since the reform and opening up, which has become the main reason for the cyclical fluctuations of China's economy. The aggregate demand mainly includes investment demand, consumption demand, ** demand and foreign demand. Reference.