Full marks and urgency What is the recent situation in the world economy?

First, the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has heightened uncertainty about global economic growth. The VIX index, which evaluates investors' assessment of the risk ahead, rose rapidly after S&P downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, suggesting that investors' panic levels are beginning to increase. At the same time, credit spreads on U.S. corporate bonds have continued to rise since June.

The rise in corporate credit spreads will lead to higher financing costs for businesses, which will hit small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States, which will have a shock to economic growth and employment.

Second, from the perspective of the short-term micro transmission mechanism, the downgrade of the rating of U.S. bonds will make financing transactions secured by U.S. bonds less secure, and banks or other trading institutions will require an increase in collateral or a return of part of the financing amount. In fact, on July 26, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised the U.S. Treasury bond mortgage discount rate and Treasury bond** trading margin, and with the downgrade of the U.S. Treasury rating, the mortgage discount rate is likely to be further raised, which will have a certain impact on the commodity market.

Third, the downgrading of U.S. bonds is also likely to increase the risk weight of the corresponding U.S. bonds held by banks, which in turn will increase the regulatory capital requirements for banks, thereby reducing the availability of funds from banks and detrimental to actual investment and output. Although the U.S. banking regulator has said that it will not increase the risk weight of the bank's corresponding assets due to the S&P's downgrade, given that the other two "super" rating agencies also have a negative evaluation of the outlook for U.S. bonds, it cannot be ruled out that this transmission mechanism may be "opened".

The S&P rating of the United States was downgraded to AA+, and the French rating showed signs of downgrading, and the market was disgusted, so that it was transmitted to the capital market, but after the baptism of 2008, the market was obviously rational and did not sell recklessly. After the downgrade of the United States, the cost of financing has increased significantly, and it is basically certain that the quantitative easing policy will inevitably be introduced indefinitely, because the wealth created by the United States every year will not be enough to reduce its debt, and the economic situation in Europe is not optimistic, and all countries are too busy to take care of themselves, the whole world has gradually shifted from inflation to deflation, the economy has entered a painful stage of stagflation, and the unemployment rate has increased year by year, until new science and technology come out or a new development model comes out, and the world has entered a new stage of rapid development. The new development model is uncertain, if you want to start a business, the risk is relatively large, it is recommended to hold your money tightly, deposit the money in the bank, and wait for a few years when the economy is stable, and now it is not painful to be a subordinate than a boss.

In particular, investments cannot be leveraged.

Refer to ** above to record the main ** changes in the world, and ** can reflect the economic situation to the greatest extent. Since the debt of Europe and the United States, especially the downgrade of the United States by Standard & Poor's, the world's ****, emerging market countries such as BRICS, ASEAN have also performed poorly, and South Korea has fallen below 10%. Europe and the United States** have almost been tied together, and Asia** has almost become the echo worm of Europe and the United States.

The performance of China and India has been relatively stable, China's A-shares except for Monday's daily fall of 3%, the rise and fall is not large, most of the world's ** intervention, in this week** should not see a sharp fall. The sharp rally in gold prices should also end in the near future, but it will be difficult to retreat. In the long run, the US QE3 is almost imminent, which is certainly not what emerging countries such as China want to see.

The dilemma of external appreciation and internal depreciation of the name currency should continue until the end of the year.

The U.S. debt crisis and the U.S. credit downgrade are both a big game of chess, the purpose of which is a plan made by the United States in order to maintain its leading position in the dollar.

The downgrade of U.S. bonds and credit will lead to the depreciation of the yuan, because there is no way to rise, what is the point of inflation in China, the CPI in July is the interest rate, that is, 10,000 yuan deposited in the bank, it will lose 300 yuan, and China's foreign surplus has been growing below the level of the same period for seven consecutive months.

The continued economic recession will have a great adverse impact and impact on all walks of life, and the first to affect the following industries is to see if there are also what you are doing, and how to deal with it in the past?

1. Light luxury brand industry.

The main customer group of the light luxury brand is the middle class, when the economy is in recession, the middle class loses its ability to consume, begins to downgrade consumption, and is no longer willing to pay a brand premium for these light luxury brands, so the brand of light luxury positioning will decline with the decline of the middle class.

2. Various production equipment industries.

Because when the incremental market disappears and the stock game becomes stronger, the elimination rate of participants in various markets will also become higher, and the competitors of equipment manufacturers will also become the second-hand market from other manufacturers.

3. Non-essential service industries.

For example, service industries such as beauty salons and justice, catering, and coarse fiber training, the real profit of these industries is general, not the low unit price industry like hairdressing, which must be served, but some non-essential services, so these service industries will not be too good in the economic recession, let alone tourism.

4. The real estate industry and its related manufacturing industries.

For example, the most common building materials, doors and windows, household hardware, whole house customization and other industries, as well as large appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, range hoods and other decorations.

5. All kinds of middlemen and dealer industries.

In the incremental era, the brand hopes to rely on the potential energy of dealers in the local area to help them quickly open the market, so they will give dealers enough profit margins, but in the stock era, in order to stabilize their own income, the brand will face consumers directly, and dealers will become a competitive pattern, relying on the difference in price to eat into a big fat man, the era has passed, there will be no big dealers in the future, direct experience stores, etc.!