Garlic prices go up and down, what s going on?

The essence of price fluctuations is the transformation of demand and **, and the price increase is nothing more than a decrease in production and a wholesale dealer's card. The main reason for garlic is that garlic producers in the country of origin are reluctant to reduce it. Due to the high cost and loss of funds, garlic ** merchants are not a few, and the reason for the loss is mainly affected by the market conditions of new garlic this year.

Since the end of September, garlic **again**. Since the end of September, the garlic of Jinxiang has been in the market, and in September, the price of chilled garlic has increased by nearly 1 yuan per kilogram. Now one day, we refrigerated the garlic and both buyers and sellers waited.

The data shows that at the end of October, the first refrigerated garlic was yuan kilogram, about 35 higher than the end of September, nearly 200 higher than the same period last year, a new high in the past three years.

The main reason for the end market is the country of origin. Due to the reduction in planting area, the market expects that this year's new garlic will be the first to reach the yuan after the opening of the new garlic in early June, and the highest will reach the yuan, affected by the trend of seeking after. With the new garlic, the remaining garlic from last year caught up with a good time, not only did the trading volume increase, but it also helped stabilize the garlic.

A garlic company in Jinxiang City, Shandong Province, brought in two trucks destined for Hunan and Guangdong. The batch of garlic that completed the transaction was garlic produced in 2018. Currently, garlic is about 8 cents lower than new garlic, so the volume of transactions has increased significantly compared to the previous year.

The main reason for this year's garlic **** is the garlic production area, the small planting area of garlic and the decline in total production. This year's garlic **** is based on last year's low-cost losses. And this year's garlic market is very good, next year's garlic planting area will definitely not decrease, garlic is sufficient, naturally there is no obvious room for growth.

If there are too many areas where garlic is grown, it may go down. According to these trends, the area planted with garlic will increase next year, and the yield is expected to surpass this year's, so in 2020, the ** of garlic may not reach the highest level of this year. However, the specific ** fluctuations still need to wait for next year's market supply and demand.

I think the main factor is that garlic production is uncertain and there are too many trust factors.

There will be ups and downs in the ** of each thing, but it basically maintains a normal level, and it doesn't matter.

It should also have a certain relationship with the supply and demand of the market.

This is because it depends on our garlic market and this year's production.

The reason for the increase in the price of garlic is due to the decrease in planting area and the decrease in production per unit area, and the emergence of economic cycles.

First of all, China's storage of garlic is still running at a high level, the market is sufficient, this price increase, it may be that the hoarders deliberately raise the price, waiting for the opportunity to make a profit to ship, as a small and medium-sized garlic farmers, should take advantage of this **** decisive shipment, to avoid risks. With the new garlic **, garlic **** will inevitably be impacted, and garlic ** may "dive".

Secondly, although the planting area of garlic this year has decreased by about 20% compared with last year, the amount of garlic in stock last year is particularly huge, which also causes garlic to not appear large. Unless garlic merchants carry out monopolistic speculation and deliberately raise the ** of garlic.

Finally, for the trend of garlic in the later period, if a large number of new garlic in the north is on the market, there will be a downward adjustment. Finally, I hope that garlic farmers will not hold the heart of "cherishing the sale" of garlic, and now garlic ** should have reached the top, and the storage amount should be minimized.

Garlic planting time is different due to the different purposes of cultivation, as garlic sprouts, garlic head cultivation most of the sowing in September to October, as the saying goes, "July onion, August garlic" (lunar calendar), as green garlic (young leaves) cultivation can be planted in August, the requirements for the sowing period are not very strict.

The fundamental reason is that affected by the epidemic, our garlic mainly relies on exports to earn foreign exchange, counting on few domestic sales, if a single independent sales, we are in a situation of oversupply, our garlic can remain more than half, domestic sales can only digest a part, a large part of the need to export abroad, the international market because of the epidemic relationship for garlic demand is very small, but as far as the current situation is concerned, farmers have maintained an optimistic attitude towards planting garlic before the year, resulting in today's oversupply situation.

<> if this year's agricultural products are low**. In the coming year, everyone will abandon it, the sown area will be greatly reduced, and the yield will also drop significantly. This agricultural product **, a roller coaster phenomenon.

Recently, garlic's ** is to blow up the screen, garlic's ** has fallen to a few cents, "garlic you are ruthless" is gone, garlic farmers look at such **, it is unacceptable. One year up, one year down, three years without moving, garlic is said. In general, the international situation is uncertain, the amount of domestic enterprises has decreased, and the storage capacity is almost non-existent, although the personal food procurement of the people has increased, but the impact is very small.

So garlic** is naturally very low.

Driven by the interests of garlic, the planting area was wantonly expanded. Last year, garlic ** was not too high, fresh garlic cost seven or eight cents a catty, and later rose to about yuan per catty, with a small profit price. This year, some garlic farmers still have a fluke mentality, expanding the planting area, and the land cannot be concentrated, and there is no foundation for industrialization.

It is so easy for the state to come forward to solve it, and it is not easy to solve it with one or two policies, but it will not work if it is not solved, and this agricultural problem is the biggest headache at present, and it needs the great wisdom of all the people to solve it.

Aside from the reasons of the epidemic, due to the increase in the planting area of garlic this year, it will also affect the future garlic. Therefore, as for the amount of garlic this year, I personally think that it is normal to have a pound of garlic.

It is because of the impact of the epidemic that people's demand for garlic has declined, and the inventory of garlic is high. Production has also increased. Naturally, there will be a shortage of oversupply. The ** in the market will also be low.

First, because of the epidemic, the old garlic was not sold in time, and the new garlic was backlogged. Second, most of the garlic farmers are **, so the garlic farmers' medium potato bends have great mood fluctuations, if unified planting, unified standardization, may be lower risk. Third, the decline in exports is also one of the reasons.

First of all, it is because of the current oversupply of garlic. Because of the epidemic, our garlic cannot be exported in time, and can only rely on internal digestion. As a result, the supply of wild stupidity exceeds demand, so it can only be dealt with at a reduced price.

The reason for this is that last year's garlic was very high, so many farmers also planted garlic this year. As a result, it cannot be sold. These are the reasons why garlic is very sluggish.

This year's garlic ** is relatively low, but also due to the blind planting of Fuzhou in various places, this year's garlic planting area is 20-30% higher, but the same consumption power is constantly weakening, mainly affected by the epidemic, so that many people have reduced their consumption of garlic, and China's garlic exports have also been hindered to a certain extent, as a result, some old garlic has not been sold for a long time, so this year's garlic ** overall is showing a downturn**. Lack of positive covering.

Why is garlic going crazy? The answer given by the expert analysis is because of the reduction in production, but is this really the case? CCTV reporters came to Jinxiang, Shandong, China's largest garlic producing area and distribution center, to take a look at his investigation and interview.

Jinxiang County, Shandong Province, has always been known as the hometown of garlic, with more than 2.6 million tons of garlic circulating in Jinxiang every year, accounting for a quarter of the country's garlic production. In order to understand the reason for garlic, the reporter found Shi Weiman, director of the local agricultural bureau. He told reporters that since the new garlic will not be available until June, the garlic that is now circulating in the market is stored in cold storage, and now most of the cold storage in Jinxiang is running out, and some cold storage is simply empty.

Now the inventory of garlic in Jinxiang is about 100,000 tons, and the inventory at this time last year was more than 400,000 tons. On the other hand, the output of new garlic this year is not optimistic, and the garlic planting area in Jinxiang County this year is 560,000 mu, an increase of 80,000 mu over last year. However, the cold wave at the end of last year came early, and at the beginning of this year, it suffered from the cold spring, which had a negative impact on the yield of garlic.

Shi Weiman said: "The yield is lower than last year, and the individual garlic seedlings are not robust enough, which will cause a certain reduction in garlic yield, and the total output is estimated to be the same as last year." In addition to this, the export volume of garlic is also on the rise this year.

Taking Jinxiang as an example, in the first quarter of this year, they exported a total of 10,000 tons of garlic, 10% more than the same period last year, accounting for seventy percent of the garlic currently in circulation in Jinxiang. The sudden increase in exports has undoubtedly made the already tight supply and demand relationship of garlic even worse. Zhang Zhengyun, deputy county magistrate of Jinxiang County, said

The main reason for the increase in garlic exports is the continuous development of foreign garlic deep processing enterprises and the increasing demand for garlic. Zhou Xuefeng, secretary of Jinyi Village, Jinxiang County, said: "This year is not like last year, in previous years, garlic hit new garlic, the yield must be reduced, the total commodity volume is small, and this year's garlic should still be running at a high level." ”

Now there are some people in the society who believe that "China's agricultural products are low, and it is reasonable for the prices of mung beans and garlic to rise." Grain and vegetables should be comprehensive, so as to increase peasants' incomes and shorten the gap between urban and rural areas. "This is a very wrong and dangerous view.

Because countless facts have proved that the fluctuation of garlic and mung bean** is completely caused by the "middlemen" publishing false information and hoarding. They dramatically increased their wholesale ** to make windfall profits, and the farmers did not make a profit. Because only by increasing the purchase of agricultural products**, the farmer brothers can make a profit.

However, farmers in garlic producing areas reported that the wholesale price of garlic purchased by middlemen last year rose to yuan, and it rose to 7 or 8 yuan in the hands of retailers; When the new garlic is on the market this year, the middlemen come to buy it, and they still want to push down our price, and if we don't sell it to them, who can we sell it to? Unlike garlic, individual farmers still have a small amount of mung beans in their hands, which can be sold for 5 or 6 yuan in the market at this time, and the influence on the market is extremely limited; By the time the new mung beans are launched this year, the purchase price will still be lowered because the middlemen have a large number of mung beans in their hands.

Therefore, garlic and mung beans are dumped by middlemen, and of course consumers and farmers suffer. At present, it is just these two small garlic and mung beans, as soon as they are manipulated by middlemen, regardless of the east, west and north and south, the panic of rising prices of agricultural products spreads to the whole of China.

This year, garlic has jumped from three yuan to three yuan in the city where it was first listed, but there is no new garlic, so it has jumped to 6 yuan.

I always thought that although there was not much garlic, it was mainly caused by excessive hoarding.

Garlic ** in September is already weak, a few days ago I went to the wholesale market (a city, also refers to the wholesale market of various cities) and found that garlic is really massive, obviously disproportionate to other vegetables. In other words, there was so little new garlic at the beginning of the year, which was completely caused by hoarding. At the same time, it also indicates that there will be a big drop in garlic in the fourth quarter and next year under the current lack of strong **.

The same goes for ginger.

Next year** should not be too expensive, first of all, it is equal to the garlic seed is cheap, this year's overall ** is OK, especially before the fourth quarter, so next year will not be less planted, so next year's overall ** should be very general, no need to expect to soar at all. It's all going to be normal.

Farmers have made an overall profit, garlic hoarders have made money in the second and third quarters, and they will definitely lose money in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.

If garlic** drops significantly in one day, then the local price bureau department will be busy......

Generally speaking, there is a process for both going up and down. It's just that the process is now significantly shortened.

May prices be kept within a certain range, not too fast**. Now that we have an income of a little more than 2,000, we really calculate it in life, and we can only avoid forcing ourselves to eat, and we can't consider anything else, and we can't think about ......

Why is garlic's ** high, is it hype or a product problem? This question cannot be answered at once. The high price of garlic is mainly caused by the following reasons.

Clause. 1. As a seasoning side dish, garlic also has certain medicinal value. Garlic itself has the effect of anti-inflammatory, sterilization, eating has certain benefits, especially in the case of hot weather in summer, more and more people eat garlic, folk earthwork, eating burned garlic can cure diarrhea, etc., which has caused the supply of garlic to exceed demand.

Clause. Second, the cultivation of garlic is relatively troublesome, the yield is not high, and some of it needs to be exported. Our family has grown garlic ourselves, and most of it is for our own consumption. Garlic is a fruit that grows in the soil, so it needs to be dug out manually, the machine operation is not very convenient, and it may hurt the fruit, so the planting of garlic is relatively troublesome, and the yield is not very high, an acre of land is a few hundred catties, but also according to the weather conditions.

The high-quality garlic produced in some places is also exported, for example, many garlic in Zhongmu County are exported to foreign countries, so this has also caused the high quality of garlic.

Clause. 3. Hype. There's nothing you can't hype up in China. I remember in 2010, Wuhan even hyped up salt.

With the development of network technology, online hype is much simpler, and even what beans you play (hype mung beans), garlic you ruthless (garlic), salt prince (salt), etc., are some Internet hype, Internet hype can rise for a while, but the key is to look at the market.