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I wonder if you're a genius?? Coming in, the economy is slowly improving.
The reason for the bad economy is mainly because of the second-generation crisis in the United States. This led to a global financial crisis. 2007 The 2009 global financial crisis, also known as the world financial crisis, subprime mortgage crisis, credit crisis, and also known as the financial tsunami and the Wall Street tsunami since 2008, is a financial crisis that began to emerge on August 9, 2007.
Since the outbreak of the subprime home credit crisis, investors have begun to lose confidence in the value of mortgages**, triggering a liquidity crisis. Even the repeated injection of huge sums of money into the financial markets by the banks of many countries** could not prevent the outbreak of this financial crisis. It wasn't until September 9, 2008 that the financial crisis began to spiral out of control, leading to the collapse or takeover of a number of fairly large financial institutions.
Direction: It's hard for me to answer with you here. It is impossible to know the direction of the economy. We can only **. As a result, one is better and the other is worse.
If I'm talking to you about the trend, I'm not conveying a subjective opinion to you.
** Words: There are professors in the United States who have done an analysis. You can take a look.
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Can't help you much!
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1. The financial crisis of filial piety in the United States: From 2007 to 2008, the global financial crisis broke out, mainly due to the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States, the uncontrolled investment of financial institutions, and the lack of intervention and supervision. The impact of the financial crisis is far-reaching, but it is almost impossible to find a breakthrough, and the United States is the most obvious victim.
2. European debt crisis: After the outbreak of the US financial crisis in 2008, it soon spread to European countries, and the European debt crisis also reappeared. With the turbulence of the global financial situation, some countries in Europe that are lagging behind in development have fallen into a serious debt crisis.
Despite the many measures taken by various countries, they have not been able to effectively prevent the development of the European debt crisis, and have deepened the consequences of the crisis.
3. Brexit: In 2016, the results of the world-renowned Brexit referendum came out, and the vast majority of the British people (most of whom are the British middle class) expressed their position and demanded to leave the European Union, that is, Brexit. Although the Brexit route was finally achieved through the UK's first multilateral negotiations and compromises, uniting as one to win a decisive political opponent is still a thorny problem that cannot be solved by clever conspirators.
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Since the global financial crisis, economists have used many letters to describe economic trends. The author has seen from Chinese and foreign ** that people often use four English letters, namely v, u, l and w. Financial crisis trends are like doing a multiple-choice question with the English alphabet.
When the financial crisis first emerged, economists mostly used V to describe the trend of the financial crisis, believing that although the economy had a downturn, it would not be serious and not too long, and it would recover after bottoming out. At the time, some experts predicted that the economic crisis would be a thing of the past by the end of 2009. Before the summer of 2008, Wall Street financial institutions and most experts believed that the financial crisis was a V-shaped recession.
Even after September, even after the United States decided to give a helping hand to the "two houses", McCain, one of the candidates in the United States, optimistically asserted that the fundamentals of the US economy were healthy. As soon as this statement came out, everyone was shocked, and Obama criticized McCain for being high above and out of reality. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, McCain became further and further away from the throne of the United States.
The harsh economic reality soon ruthlessly negated the V-shaped trend of the recession.
Since then, most experts have begun to prefer to use the English letters u and l, and more and more often use l. The U-shaped meaning is that the economic crisis goes down quickly, and it will go through a long detour before it rises; The L-shape means that after the economic growth rate slows down, it is not known when the upward momentum will be regained, and the economic outlook is grim. Of course, there are also economists who use w to paint a portrait of the trend of the financial crisis.
RGE Monitor is an economic consulting and research institute in New York, USA. Noriel Roubini, the president of the institute and a professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, said that six months ago, he thought the probability of an L-shaped recession was only about 10 percent, but now it has risen to more than 30 percent. He also said that in 2009, the world economy will grow in the world, and the developed countries will all fall into negative growth, while the emerging economies will experience a "hard landing".
The current performance of financial markets also seems to confirm that the world economy is moving in an L-shaped curve, with two of the three major stock indexes in New York hitting new lows.
It takes a process for the financial crisis to go from its occurrence to its spread to being recognized by the world. In the face of complex economic phenomena, it is difficult for even specially trained economists to "know the autumn from a leaf".
The trend of the financial crisis has changed from V to U and even L, sending a bad news: the crisis is getting worse, people's incomes will be reduced, and life will be more difficult. Needless to say, these are all true.
But there are always two sides to the story. While reflecting the economic difficulties, the changes in the trend of the financial crisis also reflect people's deeper understanding and more tangible feelings about the severity of the financial crisis. A correct understanding of difficulties is often the first step in solving difficulties.
Only when the disease is identified can the right medicine be prescribed. In this sense, only by recognizing the severity of the financial crisis will countries around the world be able to face it more courageously, take stronger anti-recession measures, and tide over the difficulties together.
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It's hard to say.
But I believe that there will be no major problems in our economy.
It may be at least a year or two before the financial crisis really ends (optimistic estimates).
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