Yuan Shikai commanded the First Sino Japanese War, will the war be lost?

Yes, whoever commands will lose, only some pretending to be experts have to be Se, in hindsight, really let them command, they have already urinated.

Who knows, you assume that the past and the future, at this point in time, are false propositions.

1.Lack of foresight: At the critical juncture when Japan was losing the country and the danger of war was looming, the Qing Dynasty instead relaxed its national defense construction, cut the military budget on the grounds of financial constraints, stopped purchasing ** from 1888, and stopped allocating funds for the navy's equipment and medicine in 1891.

2.Strategic reasons: Before provoking this war, Japan's wartime base camp formulated a plan for the overall planning of the navy and army""General Operational Policy".

Its strategic goal was to engage in a decisive battle with the Qing army on the Zhili Plain in China, defeat the Qing army, and force the Qing to submit. On the Chinese side, there was no clear strategic policy and operational plan before the war. In terms of strategic planning, Japan has already taken the lead.

3.Equipment disadvantage: In the Battle of the Yellow Sea, where both sides did not hold the right to control the sea, the Qing army met the Japanese army with inferior forces (two ships of more than 3,000 tons, 10 ships of less than 3,000 tons, 8 ships of more than 3,000 tons, and 4 ships of less than 3,000 tons).

Limited by the technical conditions at the time of manufacture, the effective firing distance of Beiyang is no more than 3,000 meters, while the effective firing range of Japan's Yoshino, which is equipped with a new rangefinder, can reach 5,000 meters. The Japanese army was also armed with new rapid-fire guns.

4.Partisan strife: In the late Qing Dynasty, the relationship between the Qing faction, led by Emperor Guangxu's mentor Weng Tongyi, and the Westernist faction led by Li Hongzhang deteriorated.

In order to limit Li Hongzhang's rights during the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing faction asked Emperor Guangxu of Chaqiao to transfer Li Bingheng, who had contradictions with Li Hongzhang, to serve as the governor of Shandong. Li Bingheng, a native of Liaoning, is a close friend of Weng Tongyi, and also belongs to the Qing Dynasty rumor, during the First Sino-Japanese War, he opposed Li Hongzhang everywhere, and all kinds of strange excuses did not send reinforcements, so that Liugong Island became an isolated island, and after experiencing tragic resistance, it finally fell.

For many reasons, the Qing ** imperial class hoped to weaken Li Hongzhang's Beiyang power by the hands of the Japanese, at that time Japan was tantamount to a war with Li Hongzhang, the Beiyang Naval Division had not added new ships from its formation to the war, and had been complacent, while Japan had been preparing for invasion and added many new ships, especially the Yoshino ship, a fast cruiser with a high rate of fire, the number of Japanese naval artillery projections was 5-6 times that of the Beiyang Naval Division, and the Beiyang Naval Division and the movements of the Qing army in Korea were under the control of Japanese intelligence. Britain and other Western countries hope to open the door to the Qing Dynasty again to reap the benefits.

There is no military spending, there is no **, there are no shells.

The reasons are manifold.

1. At the critical juncture when Japan was pouring all its strength to expand its armaments and the danger of war was imminent, the Qing Dynasty instead relaxed its national defense construction, cut its military budget on the grounds of financial constraints, and stopped purchasing ** from 1888 and stopped allocating funds for equipment and ammunition for the navy in 1891.

2. Before the war, there was no clear strategic policy and battle plan. Due to differences of opinion between the ruling groups and their mutual constraints, the ruling clique has not formed a special operational command organ in advance, still less has it had strategic guidance for the overall situation. He pinned his hopes on the "mediation" of Russia, Britain and other countries.

3. In the Battle of the Yellow Sea in which the two sides fought for sea supremacy, the Qing army met the Japanese army with inferior forces (two ships of more than 3,000 tons and 10 ships of less than 3,000 tons, 8 ships of more than 3,000 tons and 4 ships of less than 3,000 tons). Moreover, limited by the technical conditions at the time of manufacture, the effective firing distance of Beiyang is no more than 3,000 meters, while the effective firing range of Japan's Yoshino, which is equipped with a new rangefinder, can reach 5,000 meters. The Japanese army was also armed with new rapid-fire guns.

In addition, the ships of the Beiyang Naval Division are relatively old, equipped with insufficient steam engine horsepower, and the maintenance situation is not good, so the average speed of the fleet is only one knot, while the capital ships of the Japanese fleet are relatively new, and the use of convenient and mobile columns is more suitable for exerting firepower, and the speed is also relatively fast, so the Japanese fleet's maneuverability in actual combat is also stronger than that of the Beiyang Naval Division. The Beiyang Navy Division fell into the predicament of not being able to fight and not being able to leave.

4. The relationship between the Qing faction led by Emperor Guangxu's mentor Weng Tongyi and the Westernization faction led by Li Hongzhang deteriorated day by day. In order to attack the Beiyang military clique, the Qing faction of the imperial party did not hesitate to attack Li Hongzhang and his subordinate Beiyang generals by exaggerating the facts, even spreading rumors and slander, and framing him. Such as:

During the First Sino-Japanese War, Li Bingheng, the governor of Shandong, [Qingliu and Weng Tongyi's best friend], opposed Li Hongzhang everywhere, and did not send reinforcements under various strange excuses, so that Liugong Island became an isolated island, and after experiencing tragic resistance, it finally fell.

One Li Hongzhang's Beiyang against the whole of Japan, how can it be undefeated!

In fact, at that time, China's troops, morale, and generals were slightly superior to Japan, and it can only be said that the country was not fully prepared at that time, and felt that it was just a small Japan, and did not regard Japan as an opponent of equal strength. The third is that the Beiyang Army was besieged for more than ten days, and in the end there was no army to help, Li Hongzhang said that he would hold on, and in the end Li Hongzhang himself was unable to go over to rescue him, and the Chinese navy was gone, and the fourth was that after Guangxu defeated the war, he just wanted to surrender, and demanded that Li Hongzhang finally cede the land, and also telegraphed to Li Hongzhang who was negotiating in the past, which was deciphered by the Japanese, and in the end there was no way, the degree of compensation was too great, and the national strength was too damaged, so that the gap between China and Japan widened again, and also let other foreign countries see that China can be bullied. Everyone came to fight China, and since then China has entered a position of being slaughtered by others.

At that time, there were no shells on the Chinese warships, and the shells were filled with sand, not to mention that the corruption of the Qing Dynasty was hopeless, and it is said that a large part of the military funds at that time were used to repair the garden, and if there was no such thing as corruption, it was still possible, and the total tonnage of Chinese ships at that time was higher than that of Japan.

There are many reasons, the backward equipment is one thing, for example, many shells at that time were dud or could not be stuffed into the barrel; There are also problems in strategy, and the logistics can't keep up, for example, Li Hongzhang's nephew still brings food and takes cards; The political backing is not strong, and the support for the war ahead is not enough.