With only 50 million mobile phones left next year, will Huawei really quit?

Huawei will definitely not quit, now the United States wants to sanction China, so take Huawei to cut, if the United States really starts with our commonly used APP, then many Apple users will choose domestic mobile phones, so the market is very large Huawei will not exit.

Huawei will not be out of the game. In response to the intensifying sanctions of the United States, the Chinese Academy of Sciences has officially announced its involvement in chip development, and I believe that with the strength of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the results will not be bad. And the United States knows that it cannot be forced too much to lead to China's complete self-sufficiency, so its policy may be relaxed to allow relevant companies to continue supplying.

In addition, there is already relevant chip production capacity in China, and Huawei has a big deal to withdraw from the high-end market.

No, Huawei will definitely take certain measures to solve the problem, and it should not quit directly.

Huawei is a very powerful company, and they are capable of facing the current situation.

I don't feel like I'm going to quit, and of course such a big company will find a way to continue to operate.

It has entered September, and there are still more than ten days before TSMC completely cuts off Huawei, and Huawei's real crisis is coming, analyst Guo Mingchi**, Huawei may collapse under pressure and withdraw from the smartphone market. Is the Huawei Mate40 really going to be a swan song?

According to Huawei's 2020 interim report, Huawei's consumer business revenue in the first half of the year was 255.8 billion yuan, accounting for Huawei's total revenue. The chip has a great impact on Huawei's mobile phone business and operator business.

A lot of people will say, is it really going to quit? In fact, it is not easy to make a conclusion now, the Kirin 9000 production to the present, and other aspects of procurement, there should be a certain stock.

Even if the embargo on chips and other key hardware and software will deal a heavy blow to Huawei's mobile phone and 5G business, causing it to stagnate or even seriously regress in three to five years, the national policy, the support of the domestic market, and the accumulation of Huawei's R&D capabilities are enough for Huawei to preserve its strength in other fields and quickly open new markets, and it can continue to invest resources to break through key technical barriers.

Personally, I believe that Huawei's revenue may drop sharply in the short and medium term, and the front line will shrink sharply, but it is far from a desperate situation, and it can still make a comeback after surviving the most difficult hurdles.

Final Summary:1Making mobile phones is not Huawei's side business, it is a major industry.

2.The mobile phone industry is a cash flow business, and Huawei cannot have unlimited chips, and the impact of the ban is great.

3.Huawei may adjust its focus.

4.There are too many variables in the future, so wait and see.

Although many netizens are reluctant to admit it, they have to accept the fact that Huawei mobile phones have really fallen to the bottom under multiple rounds of suppression.

According to ODMI data in 2021, Huawei's mobile phone sales were 35 million units, ranking 9th in the world, down more than 81% year-on-year. What can be said is that the situation will be more severe in 2022, because there will be less chip inventory, and shipments will only be less.

As shown in the figure above, this is the sales data of Huawei mobile phones in the past 11 years from 2011 to 2021, and it can be seen from the above figure that in 2012, the sales of Huawei mobile phones were about 32 million units.

Then in the following years, it climbed rapidly and maintained rapid growth, and by 2019, Huawei's mobile phone sales were 100 million units, and from 32 million to 100 million units, it took Huawei 7 years.

But from 100 million units in 2019 to 35 million units, it only took 2 years for Huawei to decline by 21% in 2020 and 81% in 2021, which is 10 years ago.

Some time ago, Yu Chengdong said that Huawei's mobile phones already have disruptive technology, and they can return as kings as long as they get the chips, and Yu Chengdong even said that this time is 2023.

But to be honest, it is actually a bit difficult for the king to return in 2023, because as far as the current situation is concerned, it is not certain whether the domestic ** chain can handle the pure domestic production of 14nm chips in 2023, even if it gets the pure domestic 14nm, it can also help Huawei, but it is only a 14nm chip.

But like Qualcomm, Apple, MediaTek, Samsung, etc., they will launch 3nm chips in 2023, and the gap between 14nm and 3nm is still huge, which will also lead to a gap in experience, performance, etc.

Therefore, for Huawei mobile phones, in fact, the current reality is very grim, because the vacated market has been snatched up by other brands, and it is not easy to get it back in a short time.

On the one hand, there is a cycle for replacement, users choose other brands, and then buy Huawei mobile phones have to wait for the mobile phone in their hands to be eliminated, and now the average life of mobile phones is more than 2 years.

On the other hand, other brands will not let it go, and will do everything they can to stabilize the market and increase the resistance to the development of Huawei's mobile phones.

To really reach the level of exit, it is not because of the fact that there is a lot of economic capital in the world, Huawei has not been listed for so many years, and there is no risk at all, what to do is that the liquidity of the entity enterprise itself must be a lot, on the other hand, high-end chips may have to rely on foreign countriesHowever, some low-end chips are driven by enough economic interests, and we can also build them with enough money.

It must be alarmist, Huawei has not been able to exit in the face of this comprehensive technical blockade, and it will not exit next year, and the Hongmeng system has been installed, and chip manufacturing is also accelerating, I believe Huawei can withstand the pressure and complete the counterattack.

Huawei can only release 50 million mobile phones next year, is Huawei going to quit. No, I think that's alarmist. Huawei didn't quit so easily, I don't believe the news.

It is by no means alarmist, chips rely heavily on lithography machines, and there are only a few in total, all of which are inextricably linked to the United States. With the further increase of restrictions on Huawei in the United States and the impact of the epidemic, it is more likely that Huawei mobile phones will decline this year.

It is alarmist, Huawei, as a platform independently created by China, has put forward new insights in the field of mobile phone chips, won glory for the Chinese people, and abandoned the cooperation with the original foreign chip manufacturers. The courage of the strong man among him to break his wrist is enough to prove that the future is promising, there will be more mobile phones for research and development, and the temporary trough is only temporary.

Not alarmist, but don't worry too much either. In recent years, the domestic chip industry has made great moves, but the minefields are one after another, and many projects have been dismissed. In addition, TSMC and other foundry companies have given up cooperation with Huawei under pressure from the United States, resulting in a large gap in Huawei's high-end chips, which has seriously affected the production plan.

However, as American companies complain, the imposition of technological sanctions on China is only forcing China to become independent. Now, the Chinese Academy of Sciences is officially involved in chip research and development, and it is expected to overcome technical problems such as lithography machines in the future.

From this news, we can see that Huawei's mobile phone production will inevitably be reduced in 2021, which also means that Huawei mobile phones will be hard to find in 2021, and it also means that the high-end market of domestic mobile phones will be occupied by Apple and Samsung again.

If you want to produce a mobile phone, you must have parts, and Huawei's orders for mobile phone parts have dropped by more than 60%, which means that the output of Huawei's mobile phones will also be reduced by almost 60%. Shake the brother round <>

In this case, the situation that Huawei mobile phones are hard to find is difficult to improve in 2021, and we can no longer buy the Mate series of 3499 yuan after the price reduction, even if you buy it at the original price, it is difficult to buy, and if you want to buy Huawei Mate 40 series, have you grabbed it?

More importantly, Huawei's exit, the domestic high-end market will be occupied by Apple and Samsung again. Maybe you still don't believe this when you say it some time ago. But after looking at the design of the Xiaomi Mi 11 Ultra's large matrix + useless ultra-small secondary screen, as well as the camera design of the OPPO Find X3 Pro, in addition to enthusiasts, friends who have no requirements for the appearance of such a mobile phone may buy it.

As an ordinary user, would you really buy a phone like that? It is estimated that it was dissuaded by a glance at the design.

Looking at the current mobile phone market, the iPhone 11 can be sold to a price increase, and even the iPhone 12 mini, which is exclusive to the small screen party, is also increasing in price, Suke bought one on February 18 and spent 4900 yuan, and in December 2020, the ** of this mobile phone was 4600 yuan. And the mainstream iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Pro, iPhone 12 Pro Max sales are also very scary.

Even the Samsung Galaxy S21 series has better sales this year than in previous years, on the one hand, it is a blow to Samsung, and on the other hand, it is Huawei's hard-to-find situation, giving up the high-end market. <>

It is expected that Huawei's annual output will only be 50 million next year, which is not groundless, but there is no need to be too nervous. At present, the U.S. restrictions on Huawei have escalated, and the U.S. restrictions on Huawei are becoming more and more serious, and it no longer provides chips to Huawei. South Korea, a senior U.S. adjunct, has also taken action.

South Korean media said that some South Korean ** companies will also restrict Huawei's ** chips. Huawei's current Kirin 900 chip 5nm specification reserves are only 8.8 million, plus the reserves of other specifications of chips, some experts initially ** Huawei can only produce 50 million smartphones next year.

But this is also an estimate at the moment, and it is not entirely credible. Moreover, the current economic globalization is not only the impact of chips, and any problem in any link will affect the production capacity of mobile phones.

As an excellent national enterprise in China, Huawei is also constantly developing core technologies independently, and 5G base stations are led by Huawei in the global development, striving to achieve China's intelligent manufacturing, in order to independently produce electronic products, and even provide assistance for the development of the global information technology industry. Huawei is also independently developing chips, and has already put into the market finished products, although the performance, stability, and running speed may not be as good as imports, thus limiting the development of higher-end mobile phone business, but some low-end mobile phone production capacity will not be affected. We have to give national enterprises some time to develop, and accompany national enterprises to get through this trough together, not to mention that the current situation of economic globalization is unstoppable, no one will get along with interests, this country does not do business, and there will be other countries to provide chips.

In the past few months of chip reserves, it is believed that Huawei's technicians will also work day and night in order to develop Chinese chips that can compete with chips from other countries as soon as possible.

Huawei is also a national enterprise, and when it is really difficult, I believe that the state will provide help, introduce relevant policies to support, and encourage the independent development of national enterprises. As a member of the Chinese nation, we must also support the development of national enterprises, help them tide over difficulties, enhance China's comprehensive national strength, and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. I wish us the "freedom of chips" as soon as possible!

It may be true, because Huawei may still have to study the development of chips, so the mobile phone will not be produced so much, but the specific will not be known until next year.

It's fake, since the United States began to suppress Huawei in 2019, Huawei has been conscious of the follow-up risk ** and resource coordination, and at present, it is not very reliable information that it will only sell 50 million mobile phones next year.

Fake. Despite the chip crisis, Huawei's engineers and technical departments are working hard to overcome this difficulty and ensure the production of mobile phones.

First of all, this is an online rumor, not necessarily true, and secondly, this is next year, even if Huawei's mobile phone chips are cut off now, it does not mean that there will be no other way in the future, so there is no need to believe this statement.

Fake. Huawei official ** has not made such a statement, so it is fake.

Huawei's low-end share is mainly eaten by domestic counterparts (such as Xiaomi, OPPO, etc.), while the high-end field is still the world of Apple and Samsung.

Most of them were picked up by Samsung and Apple, and Xiaomi, OPPO and Vivo did not have a large share. But these three domestic brands have also broadened overseas markets as a result.

In 2020, Huawei's mobile phone sales will drop sharply, and the "lost" share of Huawei's mobile phones will be carved up by other brands of mobile phones, such as Xiaomi, Apple, OPPO and other brands, which is also a big loss for Huawei.

For the current Huawei, although it has encountered bottlenecks, the root cause is not sales, but technical shackles that have led to development obstacles, so the excellent results of achieving mobile phone sales exceeding 100 million in five months cannot become a decisive factor in overcoming technical difficultiesAfter all, Huawei, as a well-known domestic brand, is enough to be widely recognized by consumers in terms of software technology and hardware performance, after all, the sales of Huawei mobile phones have always been not inferior.

If you want to get through the technical difficulties, you need to have the independent research and development ability of chips, but so far domestic companies do not have this ability, the key is that it is impossible to change the status quo in a short period of timeIn such an objective background, Huawei's long-term development will be affected by many uncertain factors, so it will not be able to make great progress and development under the same conditions, which is also well known to Huawei's senior management.

The bottleneck of technical constraints is insurmountable for any enterprise, even if it is an international brand like Huawei, it will also be subject to others because of technical constraints, but as long as the general environment is improved and the existing development trend is maintained, then Huawei's superiority as a domestic brand should not be underestimated, after all, this is the core element related to whether the domestic mobile phone brand can maintain strong competitiveness in the international market.

Although Huawei is still at a critical juncture, it has accumulated rich experience in dealing with the turmoil that has occurred, and as long as it can use this as a reference to formulate corresponding strategies, it can still flexibly respond to similar crises even if they occur againOn this basis, the development trend will naturally show a gratifying situation, and I believe that this is also very encouraging for other domestic brands.