Is corn expected to rise or fall in 2021?

At present, it is about to enter the second half of March, April is just around the corner, I personally think that the space for corn to continue to be the first is relatively limited, the end of March, the beginning of April may be the turning point of the corn **, there is a gradual warming trend.

Such an optimistic view is mainly due to the change of time and the change of **, and there have been new changes to the "five major negatives":

First, the corn period has recently bottomed out**, on March 16, the main corn contract of the Dalian Exchange was 2105, and closed at 2716 yuan tons, closing up, showing signs of warming.

Second, with the sales of ground grain for more than a week, the pressure has been significantly reduced.

Third, the number of corn imports to the port has increased, you can calculate, if this year's import volume is about 20 million tons, then the number of arrivals each month will be between 100 2 million tons, this figure is insignificant compared with last year's 4 million tons of corn in temporary storage every week.

Fourth, most of the first-class merchants who are eager to sell are the corn purchased at a low price before December last year, and the purchase of about 1 yuan and 3 cents in the later period is now unprofitable, so this part of the corn is relatively stable.

Comprehensive analysis, these negative factors may still have a lingering momentum, the impact on the market composition is weakening, it is estimated that after more than 2 weeks, less than 1 week of digestion, the probability of the market warming is larger, April ** bullish, but the possibility of a big rise is not large.

After the new corn is put on the market, it will fall.

Summary. Hello, dear, corn will not be ** in 2023, corn ** will not ** Reason analysis: 1 The cost of corn planting is increasing every year.

2. There will be no significant increase in corn acreage in 2023. 3. Corn demand will remain high in 2023. These factors will make the ** of corn still maintain a certain ** in 2023, but there are ups and downs, and in general, it is a trend.

Hello, dear, corn will not be ** in 2023, corn ** will not ** Reason analysis: 1 The cost of corn planting is increasing every year. 2. There will be no significant increase in corn acreage in 2023.

3. Corn demand will remain high in 2023. These factors will make the ** of corn in 2023 still maintain a certain loss**, but there are ups and downs, and the total rent is a trend.

Will the price of corn rise to yuan before the Spring Festival this year?

Corn is uneven all over the country, the corn grains on the basic sail rock are kept in yuan to yuan, from the recent judgment of the difference in corn harvest and the state of the ****, this year's corn to the countryside to purchase the possibility of reaching the yuan, basically will not be realized, conservative optimistic estimate of corn before the year, farmers can sell yuan.

Of course, it is not that it is completely endless, if there are special positive factors, corn can rise to the yuan before the year, then the channel is open, the yuan is not a problem, as an authentic farmer and draft, the family planted more than ten acres of corn, and all the particles returned to the warehouse, I also think very much about corn can rise sharply, after all, this year's planting costs have increased again, urea fertilizer trembling, pesticide artificial **, corn money is a good thing for our people.

Corn 2023 Annual Meeting**:

According to the U.S. corn (2817, ,** estimate released by the American Grain Association, with the further reduction of the U.S. corn plate, the cost of China's imported U.S. corn to Hong Kong is expected to further decline in the future. In addition, with the improvement of logistics factors in various parts of the country, the progress of grain sales in the farmers' links will be accelerated, which will lead to the emergence of corn.

Since the beginning of November, domestic corn ** has shown a trend of rising and falling, mainly affected by domestic logistics factors in the short term. In the later period, with the improvement of domestic logistics problems and the reappearance of imported corn profits, the main body of domestic terminal grain may increase the procurement of imported corn to make up for the gap between domestic corn production and demand. Considering the month-on-month improvement in the corn market, we believe that the corn market is driven.

U.S. corn plate **, imported corn ** center of gravity shifted down:

Referring to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the amount of corn imported by China in 2021 and 2022 will be about 21.89 million tons, of which the corn import volume of the United States will be about 13.95 million tons of Liling, and the corn import volume of Ukraine will be about 5.92 million tons. It can be seen that the United States is still the main country that imports corn in China, and the level of corn in the United States directly affects the cost of imported corn in China.

Due to the obvious advantages of South American corn and Ukrainian corn compared with American corn, the main corn selling countries in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia have purchased a large number of South American corn, while reducing the purchase of American corn.

According to the data released by the United States Department of Agriculture, as of November 24, the cumulative sales of U.S. corn in 2022 and 2023 were 18.35 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17 million tons; The cumulative shipment volume was 12.57 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2 million tons. Judging from the sales data alone, the sales progress of U.S. corn in 2022 and 2023 is significantly slower than that of the same period last year.

In its November corn supply and demand report, the USDA estimated that the export volume of corn in 2022 and 2023 will be about 54.61 million tons, and the average weekly export volume is estimated to be about 10,000 tons, which is much higher than the previous few years. According to the current data, the sales pressure of U.S. corn this year is still large, so there is room for downward adjustment.

With the decline of U.S. corn, the cost center of gravity of China's imported U.S. corn will also move downward, which will inhibit the space of domestic corn.

This year, the progress of corn grain sales in many places has been slow compared with last year, on the one hand, it shows that the price of corn before the Spring Festival is related to the decrease in the market; On the other hand, after the Spring Festival, there are more grassroots jade ears and rice, and there may be a situation where it does not rise but falls. Especially in March and April, as the temperature gradually warms up, the risk of corn mildew increases, and the enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain increases. It is expected that the corn market in March may not show a large increase, or maintain a dominant trend.

The corn market in 2022 will basically run at a high level, however, before March, the market is not expected to have a large ****, and even ** probability. When the follow-up market is in the "gap period", the enterprise "grabs the grain" appears, and there is still room for corn, which may last until August and September.

The status quo of corn in the same period last year in the Northeast is more than about 2,400 yuan per catty, this year's mainstream corn in the Northeast is still floating at 2,400 yuan per ton, and the highest is not more than 2,600 yuan per ton of the enterprise wide shed industry, taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, the current new corn is more than 2,400 yuan per ton, equivalent to yuan per catty, which is basically about 400 yuan per ton compared with the same period last year. According to the usual outlook for the corn market, there will be a wave of price increases after the year, and the new corn ** will also take the opportunity to raise it, but this year's Northeast corn is really difficult. It can basically be determined that at the end of February and early March 2022, it will be difficult for the Northeast corn and even domestic corn markets to rise sharply in the same period last year, and enterprises will grab grain.

To put it simply, the 2022 Northeast Corn ** will basically not exceed last year! Before the Spring Festival, the overall performance of the new season corn is strong, after the long holiday, the corn market is "low-key" open, the same period last year in the "national rush to source grain" is difficult to reproduce, downstream procurement support is quite limited, it is expected that the corn market will show a phased decline in a short period of time. In the short term, the possibility of Northeast corn rising sharply is almost zero!

But if you've done market research, you should know that corn ** a month ago was.