Will the epidemic ever end When will the epidemic be completely over?

On the matter of "the end of the pandemic", the White House.

Huang Zhihuan, a consulting expert and Tang Chair Professor of China Policy at the RAND Corporation, said that the new crown epidemic.

Instead of going away suddenly, the symptoms caused by the coronavirus may slowly become long-lasting and continue to evolve like a cold.

According to data provided by the WHO, the number of confirmed cases per day in the epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom since the winter of 2021 has been several times higher than the previous high peak. This means that the epidemic is far from over, and it is basically impossible for the epidemic to end in 2022.

Experts believe that the new crown vaccine should be administered as soon as possible.

The most effective way to deal with the epidemic is to enable countries around the world to achieve herd immunity as soon as possible. In addition, everyone should wear a mask and take precautions.

The epidemic will not end, the epidemic will continue to exist with human beings like the flu, but with the development of more targeted vaccines and first-class drugs, the harm and influence of the epidemic on human beings will be greatly reduced, and soon China will no longer need to be closed and controlled

The epidemic is only temporary and will end soon, and you must do a good job of protection during the epidemic and wear a mask when you go out.

Will the pandemic ever end? According to the research of relevant experts**, at the end of December 2023, the epidemic will basically end, and with the concerted efforts of the people of the whole country, the epidemic will definitely end.

On November 9, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the global number of new crown pneumonia deaths is now down by nearly 90% compared with nine months ago, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus expressed "optimism", but as variants of the virus continue to emerge, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged countries to remain vigilant.

2.In the latest issue of the journal Nature, experts from 112 countries and territories around the world published a consensus with recommendations for ending the coronavirus crisis, including effective communication, strengthening health systems, vaccination, promoting preventive behaviors, expanding the scope of the virus, and eliminating inequalities. One of the most important recommendations is:

This includes the adoption of whole-of-society and all-in-one anti-epidemic measures to obtain vaccine-based anti-epidemic measures that can be implemented for a long time.

Since the beginning of this year, China's local epidemic has come and gone, the epidemic situation in Jiangsu has improved some time ago, and the epidemic in Harbin and Xiamen has started again recently, which is really annoying. So, when will the 2021 epidemic be completely over? Will it be possible to return to normal in 2022?

The latest news from the experts is as follows:

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1. When will the epidemic in 2021 be completely over?

The epidemic in 2021 cannot be completely over, because the global epidemic is still relatively serious, although China's epidemic prevention and control is relatively good, but foreign countries do not take the epidemic seriously, and even do not wear masks when traveling. The new crown virus has mutated repeatedly, so the complete end time is unknown, and my country also increased prevention and control efforts because of the epidemic last winter, and this winter's epidemic is also possible, so everyone must not take off their masks and do a good job of daily protection. The following soil flow collates the experts' ** for the end time of the epidemic as follows:

1.**One.

Zhang Wenhong said: The epidemic has not ended so far, and the epidemic in the world may continue for one to two years, which means that the whole world may restart in the next three months or in three months.

2.**Two.

Zhang Boli said: This autumn and winter, we still have to take strict precautions, and the epidemic is sporadic in many places and local outbreaks cannot be completely avoided, so we need to be vigilant. The main reason is that a new round of the epidemic has begun to appear in many countries, some countries are in the third wave, and some countries are in the fourth wave.

3.**Three.

Hans, director of the European Department of the World Health Organization, said: Only when the global vaccination rate can reach 70%, the new crown pandemic can end, and it is not a comprehensive end, but there is no possibility of a large-scale epidemic, and there will still be the possibility of local small-scale outbreaks in some areas, just like the current domestic epidemic situation in China.

2. Can the epidemic return to normal in 2022?

Since the epidemic will last for 1-2 years before it ends, it will be difficult for the epidemic to return to normal in 2022, but it depends on the epidemic prevention and control arrangements. For example, in daily life, it is still necessary to wear masks, and foreign travel should be minimized as much as possible, and international travel should be minimized before the global epidemic is completely over, so as to reduce unnecessary burdens on the people and countries around you. How to prevent the epidemic?

1.Vaccination.

It is necessary to strengthen the vaccination of vaccines, although the protective effect of vaccines against viral infection has decreased, but it is still very effective in preventing the transition to severe disease and mortality, and the effective rate can reach 80%-90%.

The third booster shot has already begun to be promoted, which further shows that the epidemic has become normal, that is, everyone is now waiting for the virus to become a common cold, gradually becoming preventable and controllable, but it is impossible to disappear completely.

For example, the flu has never gone away.

Fifty years from now, there may be a breakthrough in medical progress, starting with baby genes, I remember the last time there was news about this in China, I can't remember.

The time interval for the complete end should be between 2025 and 2030, because now the mutation of the virus is indeed starting to flatten out, I think the peak has passed, and the next thing is a war of attrition, and it will be almost as soon as the special medicine comes out.

The mortality rate of the new crown pneumonia is 1%, which may not seem like a high number, but it is very serious when the base is large. In less than a year, the global death toll from COVID is more than 2 million. ”

Zhong Nanshan said that at present, the countries with the highest incidence rate are the United States, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, Europe, and the United Kingdom.

Judging from the trend, the United States and Russia are still at a high level, and the others are starting to decline somewhat, because each country has adopted relatively strong measures.

Zhong Nanshan said that more countries are now starting to vaccinate. The vaccine, whether it is high or low, is definitely effective. At present, there are two official vaccines in China, and several more are under clinical phase 3 observation.

There is a process of getting vaccinated and developing antibodies, and as more people get vaccinated, the disease improves.

Hello, according to historical experience, the epidemic is expected to end in 1-3 years. In the face of the new crown virus in 2020, it is inevitable that the vast majority of countries will move towards "herd immunity", because the new crown is an RNA virus, and its mutation rate is 1 million times that of DNA viruses such as hepatitis B and smallpox, and the final result of the epidemic is the common evolution and rebirth of humans and viruses.

If we talk about the local epidemic in China, it can only be said that it is basically over, after all, the risk of importation has always existed, and in this case, it is impossible to conclude that the second infection will not break out. If you look at it from a global perspective, the epidemic is likely to last until the end of this year, and Zhang Wenhong has previously said that the epidemic is very dangerous, and it may break out in the autumn and winter in the future. For us, the end of the pandemic is the final victory.

It's hard to say when the new crown epidemic will be completely over in the last two years, but judging from the situation in our country, the country is still relatively safe, but the poor control abroad will always have an impact on the epidemic in our country, but it can also be seen that it is impossible to completely end it within three or two years.

No one knows about this, mainly because the current population flow is relatively high, you are like domestic and foreign, the epidemic abroad is more serious, and then he will also spread, so it is very unfavorable for the spread of the epidemic...

Mainly because there is no specific drug for the virus, there is no special drug for the virus, and now antibiotics can be used for bacteria and fungi, but they are completely useless for the virus. . .

Now the epidemic situation in China has stabilized a lot, only occasionally there are still infected people in some cities, but they are generally relatively safe, and now it is not so peaceful abroad, there are often a lot of infected people reported abroad, and now there are new viruses appearing, I think it will take several years for this epidemic to end.

Generally, the signal of the end of the epidemic is that there is zero increase in confirmed patients, and the zero growth will be maintained for 28 days, during which there will be concerns about imported cases, so it will take at least some time for the epidemic to end. It can be said that the people of the whole country understand the horror of the virus, but at the same time, it also makes us pay attention to the research of basic science and biotechnology.

Through our understanding of the news of the epidemic, we can know that our country has zero tolerance for the new crown pneumonia, and except for our country, other countries are very negative to deal with this epidemic, and there are no strong measures, so there is no optimistic idea about the end of the epidemic.

According to some experts such as Zhong Nanshan, the epidemic may continue for a long time. Because the current new coronavirus-style spread is very fast, and mutant viruses are always emerging, only by thoroughly researching effective ways to combat it can we end the epidemic.

Hello, the current situation of the epidemic is still not optimistic, which means that if it wants to end completely, it may take two or three years to completely end it around the world.

As long as foreign countries are not cleared and not valued, it will never end. We're trying to clear zero, but they're trying to make themselves freer, so together, this will be over in a long time.

The epidemic situation in our country is now generally under control. However, the epidemic in many countries around the world is still not effectively controlled. So we don't see the day when the pandemic will be completely over.

This is still difficult to say, because the epidemic abroad has not been well controlled, with the mutation of the virus, the protective effect of the vaccine has also declined, and the medical community still needs to continue research, but we must believe that the epidemic will definitely end.

It may be a protracted war, it will last for decades, and it may alleviate the situation, but it cannot be completely eliminated, because although it is well controlled at home, the epidemic abroad is continuous, and as long as the epidemic abroad is still there, the epidemic will not be completely over.

The epidemic is not so easy to end easily, and now the new crown pneumonia has been mutating, which makes it very difficult for medical personnel to deal with this virus, all we can do is to wear masks, do not go to crowded places at will, follow the organizational arrangements, and follow the advice of medical staff.

As long as we work together and abide by the country's policies and disciplines, the epidemic will end soon, because the end of the epidemic is the happiest and happiest day for our people.

It's hard to say the exact time for this question. Domestic experts say that the epidemic may exist for a long time and can be eased, and it is impossible to end it completely. As long as there are human beings, there will be viruses, there will be epidemics. In my opinion, he is right.

How long will it take for the pandemic to end? To expect an end, we first need to understand what factors will help bring the epidemic under control and eventually to its end.

Judging from the development trend of the epidemic in the past 15 months, the impact of seasonal climatic factors on the spread of the epidemic is relatively limited, and it is non-drug public health that has a direct impact on the epidemic.

Measures, most notably, are the use of containment of social distancing or the alleviation of social distancing. China, after the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan and the epidemic spread throughout the country, quickly adopted extremely strict containment and epidemic prevention measures, and extinguished the domestic pandemic in just over 2 months. Although there have been local outbreaks and epidemics in many places since then, the epidemic has been under control as a whole.

On the other hand, almost all other regions of the world have been guided by the epidemiological theory of the default pandemic, that is, the out-of-control epidemic, and have been adopting rubber band epidemic prevention strategies according to the epidemic situation. Now that the epidemic has eased, the epidemic prevention measures cannot be relaxed.

As a result, almost all regions of the world have already experienced 2 waves of the pandemic.

Currently, Brazil, Peru in South America are included.

France, Spain, Italy, the Czech Republic in Europe.

and other countries have entered the peak of the third wave of the pandemic.

In terms of global trends, it is uncertain whether the pandemic will enter a full-blown third wave peak.

However, as mentioned above, the impact of seasonal weather factors on the epidemic is relatively limited, and the epidemic prevention measures of various countries will remain as rubber bands as ever.

This means that, globally, it is absolutely impossible to expect to end the pandemic with containment measures.

Achieving "herd immunity" through widespread natural infection to end the pandemic?

As early as the outbreak of the epidemic, the author wrote an article arguing that the realization of "herd immunity" was the new crown epidemic.

The only endpoint of the pandemic. Although, due to the general lack of correct understanding of the concept of "herd immunity" in China at that time, it was also attacked and even abused.

Now, this view seems to have been universally accepted.

However, in view of the coronavirus.

and the uncertainty of the strength of acquired immune protection, and practice has also proved that it is not feasible to achieve "herd immunity" to control or even eliminate the epidemic through widespread infection of the population.

For example, research from Brazil shows that back in January, Amazon.

The rate of coronavirus infection among the regional population has exceeded the widely expected herd immunity of 75%, and it has not stopped the continued spread of the virus in the local area.

So far, the entire population of Brazil has a high rate of virus infection, which seems to "no problem" that Brazil is entering the peak of the third wave of the pandemic on an unprecedented scale. Therefore, it is not only not feasible to hope to end the epidemic by achieving herd immunity through universal infection, but the cost of human life is even more unacceptable to modern civilization.