What is the Malacca dilemma ?

Malacca: The Strait of DesireMalacca is located in the northern part of the Indian Ocean, between the Malay Peninsula and the island of Sumatra in Indonesia, is a long and narrow waterway connecting the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea, therefore, it and the Sunda Strait and the Makassar Strait in the south have become an important channel to communicate the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, and it is also a maritime hub between Asia, Africa, Europe and Oceania. Due to its important strategic position and economic value, after World War II, the Strait of Malacca was jointly administered by the coastal countries of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, and more than 50,000 ships passed through the strait every year, making the Strait of Malacca one of the busiest straits in the world.

The rhetoric of the U.S. garrison immediately broke the calm in the strait, and was supported by Singapore. One is a superpower that claims to have "global interests", the other is one of the countries that owns the strait, and under the banner of "anti-terrorism", it seems that the US military will soon take over the defense of Malacca. The first to shatter the dreams of the US military were the other two owners of the strait——— Malaysia and Indonesia.

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was supposed to hold high-level discussions with some Asian countries in Singapore on 4 and 5 June on countermeasures on the situation in the Strait of Malacca. Just before Rashi's departure, Malaysia's Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Najib Razak made a clear response, rejecting the U.S. anti-terrorism patrol in the Strait of Malacca, saying that such a proposal was actually a denial of Malaysia's ability to protect the security of the Strait of Malacca. Indonesia also issued a statement expressing its opposition to the US plan to station troops in the Strait of Malacca, the sovereignty of which belongs to Indonesia and Malaysia, and foreign forces are not allowed to send troops.

In the face of clear opposition from Malaysia and Indonesia, Singapore, which had supported the presence of US troops, has also retreated. After the U.S. military's move to throw stones to ask for directions was resisted, there was also a change in attitude. Admiral Fargo, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, who had made a public statement about stationing troops, openly denied his claims.

He said the U.S. had no intention of sending more ** and troops to the Strait of Malacca. On 3 June, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told ** on his way to Singapore that the statement that the United States plans to intervene in the defense of the strait despite the opposition of the countries near the strait is incorrect and that "this is a consistent mispositive act." "As long as Malaysia and Indonesia oppose it, it will be difficult for the US military's plan to be realized.

Zhang Xizhen, a professor at Peking University's School of International Studies, told this newspaper, "Although Singapore is strategic, it is very small, and the vast majority of the Strait of Malacca is owned by Malaysia and Indonesia. He analyzed that Southeast Asian countries have been trying their best to maintain the strategic balance in the region, hoping to maintain balanced diplomacy with major powers and avoid allowing any major power to have an overwhelming advantage. As for the important strategic significance of the Strait of Malacca, Southeast Asian countries will not be unaware of it, and if the United States is allowed to enter, it will inevitably cause tension among other surrounding powers, and the strategic balance in the region will inevitably be broken.

The Malacca dilemma, also known as the Malacca dilemma: three times as many oil tankers pass through the Strait of Malacca into the South China Sea as they do through the Suez Canal and five times as many as they do through the Panama Canal. As a result, contingencies can easily lead to short-term transport disruptions in these straits, which in turn can lead to short-term global or local** disruptions.

Malacca dilemma: Whoever controls the Strait of Malacca will choke China's energy corridors. This is the dilemma!

China has become a net importer of oil since 1993, and at present, the shipping security problem in the Strait ---of Malacca, the main channel for China's oil imports, is becoming increasingly serious, and the import problem is prominent"The Malacca dilemma"。In order to solve this dilemma, Chinese scholars and relevant departments have conducted research in recent years on alternative oil transportation channels that avoid the Strait of Malacca, and the specific plans include participating in the construction of the Kra Isthmus Canal and the construction of an oil pipeline through the Kra Isthmus, the construction of the Trans-Asian Oil Land Bridge, and the construction of oil pipelines from Chittagong to Kunming in Yunnan, or from the port of Karachi in Pakistan to Xinjiang, or from Sittwe in Myanmar to Kunming in Yunnan Province. However, the pros and cons of these two options are still being discussed.

Pros and cons of the Kra Isthmus scheme in Thailand.

The Kra Canal has been around for a long time, and it was the most striking of all the alternatives to the Strait of Malacca before the China-Myanmar oil pipeline was proposed.

1. Advantages of the Kra Canal Project.

The proposed Kra Canal runs through the Kra Isthmus in southern Thailand and is about 100 kilometers long. The advantages of the Kra Canal scheme are obvious.

First of all, the economic significance of the programme is significant. With the completion of the Kra Canal, ships will be able to enter the Gulf of Thailand from the Andaman Sea, shortening the distance between the Pacific and Indian Oceans by at least about 1,200 kilometres, saving two to five days for large ships, or nearly US$300,000 per voyage. Since the canal can not only transport oil, but also other goods, the opening of the Kra Canal is not only the most thorough solution to the "Malacca dilemma", but also will change the Eurasian route.

The canal shortens China's voyage to Europe and Africa and improves safety, so its economic significance will be more prominent.

Secondly, the construction of the Kra Canal is also of great geopolitical importance. At present, China, Japan and South Korea in East Asia are all major oil importers, especially Japan, which does not hesitate to spend huge sums of money to compete with China for Russian oil in order to obtain stable oil. Coupled with the problems left over from history between China and Japan, South Korea and Japan, the current process of East Asian integration is at a stage where it is difficult to push forward.

However, Japan's enthusiasm for digging the Kra Canal is the highest, and if China responds positively to Japan, it will not only greatly reduce China's economic costs and risks in digging the Kra Canal, but will also bring the big East Asian countries closer together through energy cooperation, and greatly promote the process of East Asian integration. In addition, energy cooperation with Japan and South Korea, two US allies in the East Asian region, can, to a certain extent, enable the United States to use oil security issues to contain China.

Thirdly, the feasibility study of the Kra Canal project has been largely completed, and the project can be started as soon as the countries concerned make decisions and invest funds. The China-Myanmar oil pipeline plan is still in the macro research stage, and needs to be investigated and demonstrated in more depth and detail by experts in geology and engineering.

Tourism and manufacturing are the two pillars of Malacca's economy. The slogan of Malacca is:"Sightseeing in Malacca is like sightseeing in Malaysia"It has a rich cultural heritage and many historical monuments. Apart from tourism, Malacca is also a manufacturing hub.