The 2022 Spring Festival homecoming tide is no more, how sluggish is the scale of new home transacti

After the tide of returning to the hometown to buy a house has receded, new houses in many places cannot be sold, and the real estate market in the country is still very sluggish, only about half of what it was in previous years. Because many people are not particularly confident in housing prices and dare not buy real estate at this time, the real estate market will fall into a downturn. Housing stability is very important for a country's economic development.

The 2022 homecoming wave is gone, because many people don't plan to buy a house in their hometown, so this has caused the scale of new home transactions across the country to fall into a downturn. How sluggish is the scale of new home transactions? Here's what I think:

First, the new home transaction market is very sluggish, only about half of previous years.

Before 2022, in fact, the real estate market in various places is still very hot, and the transaction volume of new homes every year is very large. However, because the tide of returning to their hometowns after 2022 has receded, many people do not plan to buy new houses in their hometowns, so the new home transaction market has fallen into a very sluggish state, and the transaction volume may only be about half of that of previous years.

Second, because many people are not particularly confident in housing prices, everyone is afraid to buy a new house.

With the introduction of property tax and the steady development of the economy, in fact, many people are not particularly confident in the future housing prices and the future real estate market. It is this lack of confidence that makes people afraid to buy new homes, so one result is that the transaction volume of new homes is very low.

Third, the stability of housing prices is very important for the economic development of a country.

In fact, the stability of housing prices is very important for the economic development of a country, if housing prices have not been stable, then this will make people make a less optimistic judgment on the future economic situation. When the people are not very optimistic about the economic situation, economic development will definitely be greatly affected.

The scale of new housing transactions is particularly sluggish, because the state and the market have related regulations on housing prices, resulting in a gradual decline in the number of new housing transactions, and the real estate industry is not very prosperous, and there has been a continuous decline.

It is very low, because many people are reluctant to buy anymore, because many people have a lot of dissatisfaction with this, because the current ** has been declining, so many people are waiting.

The scale of new home transactions is very sluggish, with almost zero transactions in many places, and many places have also dropped a lot compared to previous years, and the whole market is slumping.

The scale of new housing transactions is relatively sluggish, because due to the current impact of the epidemic, people's enthusiasm for buying houses is not particularly high, and the trend of housing prices is not very stable.

In 2022, the tide of returning to the hometown to buy a home during the Spring Festival is no more, and the scale of new housing transactions has dropped by 50%, which is a phenomenon that the national investment concept adapts to the changes and progress of the times.

First, from the point of view of buying

The buyer comes from the local wealthy family and the wanderer who returned to his hometown to buy a home, but the essential difference between the two is that the local family has both the use and investment needs of the cash, even if the investment income can not be realized, you can still live in it, but the return to the hometown to buy a house, in addition to improving the pension environment for the elderly, but this price is expensive, and it is unlikely to be self-occupied, if rented, the rental yield of the third and fourth lines can be imagined.

Second, from the point of view of selling

The population export of third- and fourth-tier cities is serious, the siphon effect of the first and second tiers is obvious, and the population export means a sharp decline in local purchasing power.

Third, there is also a possibility of a psychology that is to return home

Let the villagers know how successful they are outside, but this is too costly, after all, it is not easy to make money, and this irrational impulse to buy a house has to be weighed repeatedly.

Fourth, third- and fourth-tier cities are not recommended to buy a house, because their economic development is limited and not as good as that of large cities.

If you just go back to your hometown to buy a house because the housing prices in first- and second-tier cities are too high, then no one will take over, and half of your life's wealth will be smashed here. Today's young people do not have to work hard in first- and second-tier cities. Because many people have limited ability to spend their life's wealth on a first- and second-tier house, China does not have such a standard way of living, which must not be a standard.

Therefore, it is a question that needs to be carefully considered whether to use one's life wealth or even six wallets to buy a small house in the first and second tiers, or to go back to the hometown of the third and fourth tier cities to buy a house. Why do many experts recommend staring at buying a house in a big city, because there is still a chance to get rid of it in the future, and you really can't find a pick-up man in your hometown. Therefore, it is recommended to buy a house to understand more about the current economic development status of the city, buying a house in a city is like buying a **, it is important to understand the future development prospects of the city.

So, it's not that the seller doesn't work hard, but that the buyer is more rational.

Cities with greater pressure to adjust the market will still strengthen credit support for the first and second homes. For the market, the support policies around the country, fresh and fresh need time, it is expected that the short-term market adjustment trend will continue, part of the early stage can ah, adjust the foot early and demand support strong cities, with the implementation of the policy, the market is expected to gradually bottom out and rebound.

With the development of the economy, although the wages of migrant workers have increased, the town is simple, but the housing prices are becoming more and more expensive, people would rather rent a house than a travel god is willing to buy a house, the economic pressure is too great.

Hospitality. Under the influence of factors such as the orderly progress of epidemic prevention and control, compared with the previous two years, the number of people returning to their hometowns has increased significantly.

Buying a house during the Spring Festival has been a highlight of the Spring Festival real estate market for many years. Due to the impact of the epidemic this year, the local government has introduced local New Year's policies, and the situation of home ownership this year is not optimistic, and the transaction area of new houses in 47 cities tracked by the Bank of China at the end of 2022 has decreased compared with 2021 and 2019 respectively. Among them, the transaction area of new housing in first-tier cities increased significantly, and the transaction area of new housing decreased year-on-year.

Transaction volume in second-tier cities decreased by about 60% compared to the same period in 2021. One of the important factors is that residents in third- and fourth-tier cities have their homes cool. According to a 2021-2022 homeownership report released by an agency, of those who chose to return home in 2022, including those who bought homes in their hometowns and provincial capitals.

From the perspective of the intention to return to China in 2022, the main reason for choosing to return to China this year is the attraction of preferential policies such as talents and settlement, and the proportion has increased from last year; Among those who live in big cities and struggle, children's education has become an important reason for them to stick to education.

Local support policies will still take time to take effect. The short-term market correction trend is expected to continue. In some cities with early adjustment and strong demand support, the market is expected to gradually rebound from the bottom up with the improvement of the credit environment and the implementation of relevant support policies.

Some cities are still expecting a "sunny spring" in March. However, for most cities, the market correction time may be long, the market recovery ability is weak, and it is difficult for short-term home buyers to make significant improvements.

All localities will fully implement urban implementation policies, and cities with greater pressure on real estate market adjustment will continue to be strengthened.

Credit support for the first and second homes, such as adjusting the provident fund loan policy, increasing the loan amount, reducing the down payment ratio, and reducing the mortgage interest rate, so as to stabilize the expectations of home buyers and ensure the normal release of reasonable housing demand.

The era of returning to the hometown to buy a home has completely passed, which is a major blow to the property market, and returning to the hometown can be said to be the last chance for the property market. In the future, our real estate market, especially.

The housing market in second- and third-tier cities is more dependent on the support of ** and some active policies.

This incident has made the property market industry in the township rise. Driven by local real estate**. For some small cities, it will affect the property market industry, ** decline.

It has affected the sales of the property market, so that the sales situation this year is not very good, which has affected the development of the property market.

In the past Spring Festival, people who go home and return to their hometowns will set off a wave of resistance to return to their hometowns to buy homes, people who have worked hard outside for a year will take the money they earn from working hard outside for a year to buy a house in their hometown, but during the Spring Festival this year, the real estate industry is quite deserted, and the transaction data is also very bleak, and there are even reports that a real estate company in a certain place has laid off 60% of its employees, which also shows the desertion of returning to their hometowns.

First of all, in recent years, in order to curb the rapid growth of housing prices, the country has cooled down the hot housing market through a series of real estate and monetary policies, so it has reduced the investment enthusiasm of some investors, and the overall investment enthusiasm in the market is not high, and investors are in a wait-and-see state, which is an important reason for the ebb and flow of home ownership during the Spring Festival.

In addition, most of the Spring Festival homecoming homes occurred in third- and fourth-tier cities, because there is a big gap between the medical resources, educational resources and infrastructure of third- and fourth-tier cities and first-tier cities, so the housing market in third- and fourth-tier cities has been tepid in recent years, and investors' investment enthusiasm is not high, so most of the capital has poured into big cities.

In addition, in recent years, due to various reasons, developers often run high and carry the road, thunderstorms, capital chain breakage, etc., especially some time ago Evergrande had a financial crisis, so that people have a certain worry about real estate companies, most buyers choose to wait and see, looking forward to Chang Nianxiang's follow-up policy before making a choice. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic in recent years, various industries are not very prosperous, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and people will choose to keep some hot money in their hands instead of investing.

Moreover, due to the downward pressure of the economy, the state has introduced policies that do not allow the real estate industry to reduce prices sharply to prevent panic, etc., so real estate companies have not taken too many preferential policies and price reduction measures to attract consumers. This is also a major reason for the ebb of the tide of returning to the hometown during the Spring Festival this year.

Because now after the epidemic is staring at Hexian, the income of the Dakaiyou family has decreased, and a certain economic foundation is needed to return to their hometown to start a business, so this entrepreneurial boom has gradually subsided. Now it's more about going out and looking for employment opportunities.

It may be because of the epidemic, because many people are reluctant to leave their hometowns and want to develop in their hometowns.

I think this is happening because of the impact of the pandemic and related policies.

The Spring Festival is a festival when many people have a longer rest time of the year, so many people will choose to return to their hometowns to buy homes during the Spring Festival, especially for migrant workers who have been adrift for a long time. I believe that only the holiday during the Spring Festival is relatively long, which can give you enough time to inspect the property you like, so that you can clearly understand the information of the property, and then buy rationally. Generally speaking, developers will give certain discounts to buyers who return to their hometowns during the Spring Festival, because at the end of the year, most developers have a large demand for funds, so they will introduce some preferential policies for price for volume at this time, and many real estate projects will release greater discounts during this period.

For home buyers, it is good to buy Chang Sakura house at this time.

According to CRIC statistics, in January, 29 key cities added 10.8 million square meters of new houses, a year-on-year decrease of 43% and 58% respectively, mainly due to the high base at the end of the year and the frequent occurrence of the new crown epidemic in various parts of the country, which directly led to a decline in transaction volume. For example, in the first-tier city market**, especially Shanghai, the area of new commercial housing in the first-tier city fell by 48% month-on-month in January. Corresponding to the weakening of the ** volume is the lack of optimism in the transaction data.

In January, according to CRIC statistics, the overall transaction volume of 29 key cities was 14.29 million square meters, down 37% month-on-month and 46% year-on-year. In addition to the decline in **, after the normalization of mortgages, the release of the backlog of demand in the early stage has risen rapidly, and the subsequent release of demand has been hindered.

The house is bought to live in, and now real estate has become the biggest stumbling block to social development and progress, even if it is an elite young man, in the case of his parents are very rich, an annual salary of 400,000 yuan to buy a suite in Beijing and Shanghai, in addition to expenses, it will take 15 years, and the house will wear out the fighting spirit and life ideals, how to serve the country? What about personal innovation and creativity? Although it is not absolute, it is rare to be able to afford a house on your own.

Moreover, the population of third- and fourth-tier cities is decreasing, and those who have money go to first-tier cities for development, and there are many high vacancy rates and price reductions in third- and fourth-tier cities, and many people are waiting.

The fundamental reason behind it is that under the high-pressure regulation in the past two years, the demand for investment housing has gradually shrunk, and the rigid demand is insufficient, and it is impossible to digest the local surplus. Yuan Shuai believes that in the past two years, the main purpose of buyers who have returned to their hometowns to buy homes is to consider that there is room for growth in housing prices in the future, hoping to enjoy the dividend of real estate appreciation.