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This is the Earth after half of the population has suddenly disappeared, where your wages have risen several times more than before, and you are the only person in your area who can fix cars, perform surgeries, or cook well. All of your peers and competitors have almost disappeared. Your skills are now in demand more than ever, and this has led to more money being earned.
In addition, high rents and mortgages like mountains have become a thing of the past forever. Because of the severe decline in the population, many houses are vacant. Now whether you want to live in **, the rent and housing prices are very cheap.
And not only that, but in addition to the many unexpected benefits that we humans will have, the planet itself will begin to change.
The first is the climate and the environment, fewer people means less pollution and emissions, and the earth will gradually start to repair itself during this time, and according to scientists.
It is speculated that if the population of the earth were reduced by 50%, the remaining humans would most likely live comfortably for the next 100 years. Of course, all of this is only possible if you are lucky enough to survive this cosmopolitan event. Population extinction crisis, considering that the total population of the world is about 7.7 billion people, and you only have a 50% chance of being one of the remaining 3.8 billion people.
Half of the population may be leaders, police, firefighters and power grid workers, and their disappearance will immediately have a serious impact on the world, and because of the professionalism of the industry, there will be no one to replace them in a short period of time, and large-scale power outages are inevitable. In addition, due to the decrease in the number of people who grow, produce and transport food, our food ** chain will also be seriously affected, and material scarcity will become a norm. But don't worry too much, because humans have had similar experiences before.
In the mid-14th century, there was a battle known as the Black Death.
The terrible virus swept across the continent, directly causing the deaths of almost 25 million people, which was about half of the continent's total population at the time. Although the virus brought endless despair to the people at the time, the event also brought some surprises, and the reason for the increase in people's living standards during that period of food scarcity was due to the fact that fewer people consumed food.
According to statistics, about 36 million people die of hunger every year, so once half of the population disappears, at least there is no need to worry about people dying from hunger. Of course, all of this is just a scientific hypothesis and a projection, even if half of the population suddenly disappears now, and in a few centuries or so, humanity may return to where it started, but one thing is for sure, the planet will indeed become healthier after half of humanity disappears. In addition, the core of the problem is not how many people we have, but how we should use and protect the earth's resources.
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The rapid decline in the population will lead to a significant reduction in the demand for human resources in all fields, and the number of mental and manual workers will also decrease, and economic development will be affected to some extent.
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It will lead to a significant failure to keep up with productivity, and at the same time, it will also have a great impact on the world's population resources, and will lead to the development speed of many industries not keeping up.
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First, we will be in the pain of losing loved ones, and secondly, the world will be in chaos, planes will crash without piloting, and flora and fauna will increase and occupy people's living areas.
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Labor shortage: A declining population may lead to a labor shortage, which will adversely affect economic development and social stability.
Population Ageing: With a declining population and longer life expectancy, the problem of population aging will become increasingly prominent. This will put enormous pressure on social welfare, health care and pensions.
Economic recession: A declining population can lead to a decrease in market demand, which in turn affects economic growth.
Shrinking markets: A declining population can lead to a shrinking market, affecting production and sales, which in turn affects economic growth.
Shifts in social structure: Population decline may lead to changes in social structures, such as changes in family structure, occupational structure, lifestyle, etc.
Ecological changes: Population decline may reduce human impact on the natural environment, but it may also lead to ecological imbalances and biodiversity reduction.
In short, the decline of human population may cause a series of economic, social and environmental impacts and challenges, which must be dealt with by effective measures.
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Negative population growth has the most serious problem for the average person: who will take care of the elderly.
Negative population growth will exacerbate the declining birthrate and eliminate the growth potential of the working-age labor force. At the same time, the elderly population will increase sharply, the young and middle-aged population will decrease sharply, the pensions received by in-service workers will decline, the total amount of pensions will increase slightly, and consumption will be large. That is, if the number of pensioners decreases sharply, and the number of elderly people receiving pensions increases sharply, the pension gap will become more prominent.
The most serious thing is that the service industry, including the pension, needs a large number of labor, and the population growth is negative, and the labor gap is even greater.
If you are bold, it will be difficult to find street sweepers in the future. Bottom line: Who will take care of the elderly?
On the one hand, in order to increase the enthusiasm of young people in childbearing, it is necessary to take practical measures, including comprehensively alleviating the cost pressures of marriage and childbearing, children's enrollment in kindergartens, and urban housing. Only in this way will young people dare to get married, dare to have children, and want to have children! At the same time, vigorously develop new technology industries, promote the development of humanoid robots, especially domestic robots, and alleviate the problem of labor shortage in the service industry.
We will continue to make efforts in childbirth support and family building, promote the simultaneous development of fertility policies and relevant economic and social policies, and do a good job in housing, education, medical care, employment, taxation, and social security suitable for families with children. Actively build a reasonable cost-sharing mechanism for childbirth and a policy support system conducive to childbirth, effectively reduce the burden of family childbirth and childcare, and stimulate fertility potential.
With the focus on "one old man and one tong stool to start the young", establish and improve the population service system covering the whole life cycle, and strengthen the function of grassroots children's elderly care services.
It is an obvious phenomenon that the change in the concept of fertility has led to a decline in the absolute number of births. In fact, the population of many developed countries and cities is already declining, and the concept of fertility in rural China is also changing. The global population decline should come sooner and faster.
Pay attention to family style, build a culture of marriage and childbearing, carry forward the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation, respect the social value of childbirth, encourage couples to share the responsibility of childcare, and tell the Chinese story of love in the new era, a harmonious family, and a happy life. A very effective way to imperceptibly.
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Around the world, from East Asia to Europe, from the United States to Brazil, negative population growth is not uncommon – "like a tsunami already visible on the horizon, it will rush before our eyes in the blink of an eye".
According to the 2022 World Population Prospects data released by the United Nations, in 2021, 38 countries were in the midst of endogenous negative population growth, mainly due to long-term low fertility rates, mainly in Europe, Asia and North America.
Signs of global population decline began as early as Europe. Tao Tao, an associate professor at the School of Sociology and Population at Chinese University, pointed out that Germany was the first country to experience negative population growth since 1950, and it has been negative since the early 70s of the last century. Hungary has experienced the longest period of negative population growth, from 1980 to 2021, with the total population shrinking by nearly 10% in more than 40 years.
Russia's negative population growth began in 1994 and lasted until 2007, and after returning to positive population growth in 2008 and 2019, it started a new round of negative population growth in 2020.
In Asia, Japan's total population has been declining by about 3% since 2010. South Korea's population growth began to decline in early 2020, and some demographers even predicted that it could become "the first country in the world to disappear".
In the face of negative population growth, encouraging childbearing has become a basic coping strategy for all countries and regions, including providing health care services for women and families, implementing maternity leave systems, adopting flexible working systems, and building childcare institutions. In addition, Sweden and South Korea have also reduced the cost of childbirth through subsidies and subsidies, rent and tax reductions, and exemptions from children's college tuition.
However, it is a frustrating fact that no country in the world has yet fallen into a low fertility rate that has succeeded in reversing the decline in the number of births. In the face of negative population growth, encouraging childbearing has become a basic coping strategy for all countries and regions, including providing health care services for women and families, implementing maternity leave systems, adopting flexible working systems, and building childcare institutions. In addition, Sweden and South Korea have also reduced the cost of childbirth through subsidies and subsidies, rent and tax reductions, and exemptions from children's college tuition.
However, it is a frustrating fact that no country in the world has yet experienced a low fertility rate that has succeeded in reversing the decline in the number of births.
For this reason, the absorption of immigrants has also become one of the important means to promote population growth. Tao Tao introduced that on the one hand, some countries have adopted policies to encourage immigration, especially to encourage high-quality and high-tech immigrants to move in. On the other hand, countries are also guaranteeing the social inclusion of non-nationals by strengthening social services, providing language training, and improving laws and regulations.
In addition, in order to cope with the risk of labor force reduction and consumption reduction, increasing the labor force participation rate of the elderly and women, and promoting industrial upgrading and technological progress have also become the focus of national policies to adapt to the consequences of negative population growth.
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The main reasons for the long-term slow population growth are as follows: First, the population base is huge, second, the population is growing too fast, and third, the fertility rate is declining too fast. Among them, the large population base is the main reason for the slow population growth.
The size of the aging population is too large. According to the data of the Sixth National Population Census, the population aged 65 and above in China in 2020 was 190.64 million, accounting for. Compared with 2010, the number of people increased by 8.96 million, an increase of one percentage point.
The aging process of the Chinese population is accelerating, and the proportion of population aging is increasing.
At present, China's population development trend is in a critical period of transformation from quantitative to qualitative, the education level of the population is gradually increasing, the proportion of the elderly population is rising, urbanization is accelerating, the fertility policy is adjusted and improved, and the aging degree of the population is deepening.
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The continued decline of our population is a complex issue involving a variety of factors. Next, I will address this question from the economic, social, and policy aspects.
First, the economic aspect.
High housing prices: High housing prices are a key factor in the reluctance of young couples with children to have children, partly because they need to buy a large area of housing to have children, and partly because the burden on the family after childbirth is heavier, and the high mortgage pressure can discourage them.
Difficulty in paying for children's education: The cost of education is becoming more expensive and the quality of education is declining, making it unaffordable for families with children, let alone providing good educational conditions.
High labor costs: With the development of the economy, labor costs are also increasing, which makes enterprises willing to invest in automation, intelligence and other technologies, rather than hiring more labor. This makes it more difficult for young people to find employment, and it also exacerbates the decline in fertility rates.
Second, the social aspect.
Changing conception of childbearing: With the progress of society, people's concept of childbearing has gradually changed, and more and more families regard childbearing as a choice rather than a necessity, which also makes the fertility rate show a downward trend.
Changing concept of marriage: Modern people's concept of marriage tends to be based on free love, rather than traditional arranged marriage. This has also led to a gradual delay in the age at which young people get married, and many people choose to be single, thus affecting fertility rates.
Changes in family structure: Due to the acceleration of economic development and urbanization, many families are becoming smaller. Many young couples prefer to have only children or not to have children. This has also led to a decline in fertility rates.
Third, policy aspects.
Family planning policy: The implementation of family planning policies has left many families with only one child. This has also led to a decline in fertility rates.
Education policy: Changes in education policy can also have an impact on fertility. With the slowdown in education, many young people no longer see their children as "pension security", but set their sights on the wider world.
To sum up, the continuous decline of China's population is a complex problem, and it cannot be analyzed only from the perspective of burning the head. Economic, social, and policy aspects all have a certain impact on the decline of fertility. Therefore, we need to find solutions on many fronts to maintain the healthy development of the population.
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