U.S. monetary policy may affect the global renminbi whether it should appreciate or not

The United States should not just talk about the exchange rate of the renminbi.

Although the exchange rate is an economic issue, in fact, remittances are the political means of each country.

The unemployment rate in the United States is extremely high.

The United States has attributed the high unemployment rate to the fact that the renminbi exchange rate is undervalued.

According to the United States, the renminbi is undervalued, and Chinese goods are cheap.

Americans buy things made in China, not things made in the United States.

Causing U.S. factories to lose money Factory losses have led to an increase in unemployment in the United States.

The above is my own non-copy to say in vain

How to say this question, appreciation is the inevitable trend of the RMB, but it is not in the current international form of rapid appreciation, now appreciation has many drawbacks, first of all, China's large foreign exchange reserves will evaporate, and secondly, once the RMB appreciates, it will lead to the collapse of a large number of foreign trade enterprises, which will have a relatively large impact on Chinese entities, once the Chinese economy is greatly impacted, then China will have a lot of potential drag on the global economic recovery, which may lead to a large number of unpredictable disasters in the later stage. Therefore, I personally believe that it is not the time for RMB appreciation, but now the appreciation pressure is high, and it is also a headache.

No, if the yuan rises, the US national debt will be gone! If you are Chinese, give me points!

The United States now wants the renminbi to appreciate. Here's why:

First, the appreciation of the renminbi will lead to an increase in the labor cost of China's manufacturing industry, the weakening of the international advantage of domestic goods, and China's already severe export situation is bound to make it worse, which will cause more migrant workers to lose their jobs. The products of developed countries such as the United States, which are relatively more competitive in terms of product quality and service, will reduce the gap between labor costs and China, and make China's products subject to huge competitive pressure. The U.S. can alleviate employment pressures, but even a real depreciation of the renminbi won't necessarily solve the problems Americans think they are.

Second, the appreciation of the renminbi will lead to a relative depreciation of the US dollar, and China's $2 trillion in foreign exchange will depreciate accordingly, and the blood and sweat of China's 200 million migrant workers over the years will be used to pay for the US financial crisis.

The trend of RMB appreciation is unstoppable, but now is not the time, but a gradual process, otherwise it will regain the consequences of Japan's long-term economic downturn caused by the sharp appreciation of the yen forced by the United States, but China is different from Japan, China is not a vassal of the United States.

If you want the renminbi to appreciate, we export labor-intensive products with cheap labor, and there is no longer a competitive advantage, and the export company is blocked, so as to increase employment for the United States in disguise, and there is an influx of hot money to disrupt China's financial market, for example, an American takes 100,000 US dollars to exchange 800,000 yuan to buy real estate or do business in China, and then the RMB appreciates, he can exchange 600,000 yuan for 100,000 US dollars, so that he earns an exchange rate of 200,000 yuan, and foreign exchange reserves are facing a huge shrinkage, In the past, 8 RMB goods were exchanged for 1 US dollar, but now 1 US dollar can only buy 6 RMB goods, and 2 yuan of goods have evaporated directly.

The explanation of the impact on the 1st floor is more detailed, but ignores a point.

Too many exports are also bad for our economy, the most important one:

1. The bank's foreign exchange account is too high, which exacerbates inflation, and 2. A large amount of foreign exchange cannot be consumed, so it can only be invested in foreign value-added and hedging, and the cost of hedging and avoiding risks is huge.

These two articles alone hedge the benefits to employment, and in addition, the frequent excessive exports have led to the most advanced friction between China and many countries, which has damaged China's international image.

To China:

To put it simply: 1. The renminbi is not freely convertible under the capital account, that is to say, the mechanism that determines the exchange rate is not the market, and there is no point in changing it.

2. The appreciation of the RMB will bring greater pressure to China's deflation 3. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will lead to a decrease in the attractiveness of foreign investment and reduce foreign direct investment in China;

4. It has caused great harm to China's foreign trade exports.

5. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the profit margin of Chinese enterprises and increase the pressure on employment 6. The fiscal deficit will increase due to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and at the same time affect the stability of monetary policy for the United States

Reducing imports, increasing exports, increasing jobs...

It can be seen that there is also some pressure on the RMB to exchange for the US dollar after the depreciation, but the medium and long-term trend is still stable. If there is no necessary demand, it is not recommended to exchange a large amount of dollars during this time period, and you must learn to avoid risks, so as to minimize losses. With the improvement of living standards, prices are also constantly **, but the RMB is depreciating, which has also led to the impact on the lives of many people, before 100 yuan can buy a lot of things, of course, after the depreciation of 100 yuan can buy fewer things.

In fact, in real life, many ordinary people will not often buy foreign goods, compared with the US dollar, the ratio of the RMB is somewhat reduced, but compared with other currencies, the RMB has not depreciated, in this case it will not have much impact on ordinary people. In real life, many people prefer to use iPhone, but the ** of iPhone has not been affected by the exchange rate and has not changed. <>

When families with cars refuel, if they choose to import, the depreciation of the RMB will lead to an increase in oil prices, which will not have a particularly big impact on the family, but there will be some economic burdens. In fact, being able to use imports** also shows that the family situation is relatively wealthy, and a small ** will not affect daily life. If you prefer investment and financial management, it will be more appropriate to buy, the value in the market is relatively high, and there will be no sharp fall, and the risk is relatively small.

In the state of stable income, if you want to go abroad for cooperation, you should also pay attention to the rational distribution of assets, and the risk of exchanging RMB into US dollars is relatively low, as long as there are financial institutions, the gap in the exchange rate can be ignored. The use of financial instruments in banks can also improve one's ability to control risks.

At present, China has more than one trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves, as well as a managed floating exchange rate system, and the market believes that China is capable of dealing with foreign exchange speculation shocks and maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate if necessary. In the second half of this year, the market expects that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again to control inflation, and as interest rate differentials between China and the United States narrow, profit-seeking short-term capital will flow to the dollar. From the perspective of interest rate changes, the short-term RMB does have depreciation pressure against the US dollar, but it does not change the medium- and long-term stability trend.

That should be to choose to improve its own economy or to advocate that the United States pay attention to peace and not provoke war.

We can find ways to make more money, as long as the money is in our hands, we are not afraid of depreciation or not, anyway, it will appreciate in the future.

This involves some concepts in economics, and under normal circumstances, the International Monetary Organization will have a macro control!

When it comes to this question, you may have some misunderstandings.

The Americans do not always ask the Chinese to appreciate the RMB quickly, the United States only asks China not to intervene too much in the pricing of the RMB exchange rate, and market forces should determine the trend of the RMB exchange rate. Since the renminbi exchange rate has been undervalued before, if the exchange rate trend is determined by market fundamentals, the renminbi needs to continue to appreciate, so it gives the impression that the United States has been asking for the renminbi to appreciate. This is actually not in line with the real time, and the dirty water that is poured on the Americans from time to time.

Of course, the United States hopes that the marketization of the RMB exchange rate is in the interests of the United States and at the same time in the interests of China, but most Chinese do not think so.

As for whether it is possible to make a currency appreciate and depreciate by intervening, of course it can. However, for most of the major currencies that are fully convertible, because they are freely convertible in the world, the circulation is large, and the degree of marketization is high, it is difficult for the country to intervene in it, if it is necessary to intervene, most of them take indirect means, such as the adjustment of monetary policy to affect the exchange rate trend, but direct intervention is very rare, before the yen, the Swiss franc has, but its intervention is very transparent, before the intervention issued many warnings to the market, belongs to limited direct intervention.

On the other hand, the exchange rate of the Chinese people's yuan has been in the intervention of the central bank, because the yuan is not completely convertible, so its exchange rate formation mainly relies on the domestic closed market foreign exchange to the RMB to generate the market exchange rate, but in the process of trading, the central bank directly enters the market to buy and sell, and controls the exchange rate through the adjustment of the number of transactions. Before the central bank's intervention basically did not change the direction of the market, that is, the appreciation and depreciation of the RMB is still determined by market supply and demand, the central bank only plays the role of an exchange rate stabilizer, but since the beginning of this year, the central bank has gone against the market, when the market is still expected to appreciate sharply, the central bank through a large number of ** US dollars in the market to pull up the US dollar to the RMB exchange rate, resulting in a sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which can be seen that the central bank of China can dominate the trend of the RMB exchange rate, and it is precisely because of the excessive intervention of the central bank of China, the United States** This year, objections were raised, demanding that the renminbi exchange rate should be determined by the market, rather than artificially intervening by the People's Bank of China to depreciate it.