Crazy gold suddenly shouted to stop, is the bull market over?

The bull market is over because the world has changed. It has also made some big changes in the industry, so the bull market is no longer there.

I've speculated**, ten years ago it was**, then it fell for a few years, and recently soared. The market is uncertain, and the bull and bear markets alternate.

Personally, I don't think there is, ** the front has risen too much, and there is a need for adjustment, so it has fallen.

Pay attention to the global political and economic situation, pay attention to changes in economic data and monetary policy, and view the gold price as a long-term investment.

The recent surge in gold prices is indeed amazing, but the trend of gold prices is very difficult, because it is affected by many different factors, such as geopolitical risks, economic data, monetary policy, and so on. If you want to grasp the trend of gold prices, it is recommended that you pay attention to the following aspects:

1. Pay attention to the global political and economic training situation. Geopolitical risk is one of the important factors affecting the volatility of gold prices, such as wars, wars, geopolitical crises, etc.

2. Pay attention to changes in economic data and monetary policy. These factors usually have a direct or indirect impact on the price of gold, such as inflation rate, interest rates, exchange rates, etc.

3. Treat the price of gold as a long-term investment. If you want to invest in the price of gold, it is recommended that you consider it as a long-term investment rather than a short-term operation. Over the long term, gold prices are often affected by inflation and currency depreciation**.

In conclusion, it is difficult to pinpoint the movement of gold prices**, but if you can pay attention to the global political and economic situation, pay attention to changes in economic data and monetary policy, and consider them as a long-term investment, you may have a better grasp of the movement of gold prices.

Compared with other Congchang assets, the volatility of the asset is smaller and more stable. In a portfolio, ** can play a role in balancing risk and effectively reducing volatility. ** is an item of enduring value.

**Widely recognized and accepted worldwide, so its value is not lost due to depreciation or inflation.

There are three main reasons for **** in the near future:

First, gold prices came under pressure as Cyprus** sold off central bank reserves to raise funds.

Second, several major institutions such as Commerzbank lowered the expected price in 2013, which also put strong pressure on gold prices, and the downward adjustment also led to a large increase in the world's largest ** ETF, which greatly suppressed gold prices.

Third, which is the essence of this gold price, due to the improvement of the US economic situation in the near term, the job market is also showing continuous improvement, and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke hinted at the possibility of exiting QE3 in two speeches last week, so this is the main reason for the downward pressure on gold prices.

I think the biggest reason is the relationship between the dollar and **, and of course this is also a personal opinion.

We all have to keep this in mind at all times.

If you study the Fed, you'll see that they really have a lot of subtle relationships between the dollar and the trend in a lot of the time.

** Rise and fall with the dollar.

As we all know, although it is no longer a currency, it is still the most important reserve asset of all countries today, and the reserves of developed countries such as the United States, Germany, France, and Italy are more than 60%, and the banks of developing countries such as China and South Korea have also begun to have a large number of them in various complex situations in recent years. Since the two are both important foreign exchange reserves, if the dollar is ****, everyone is likely to abandon the asset that needs to pay high custody fees but does not receive any interest and other income, and instead hold the dollar, **will**. Historically, after the 80s of the 20th century, the establishment of the Wall Street-dollar system re-established the hegemony of the dollar in the world.

The U.S. economy has also entered a long-term benign development of low inflation and high growth. The dollar has been constantly selling, and central banks have been selling, and it has been declining for 20 years.

If the American world, which underpins the credit of the dollar, disappoints the world, everyone will buy the only monetary metal that is independent of the credit of any country - **, **will**. At the beginning of August 2011, because of the raising of the debt ceiling, the United States suffered a historic downgrade of its sovereign credit rating, which had an impact on the US dollar, and the international gold price exceeded $1,700 ounces in response, and on August 18, it easily stood on the high ground of $1,800 ounces, and a few days later it reached a record high of $1,900 ounces. The deepening of the U.S. sovereign debt crisis has made **** soar all the way!

Since the Bretton Woods system established the relationship between the dollar and the dollar, the relationship between the dollar and the dollar can be said to be throughout.

Therefore, it is impossible to keep going up for a few years.

In the same way, the dollar cannot continue to fall tepidly in the short term.

**It's the same.**In the short term**, everyone must sing short together.

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There are a lot of fundamental data this month, but the main data that induces ****** is the Cyprus sell-off ** reserve debt repayment and the Federal Reserve considering the early end of the QE policy The initial **** short pressure increases, which eventually leads to the breakdown of the technical pattern.

Hello, glad for your question, here is my personal opinion:

1. It is reported that since August,** Breaking through the all-time high set in 2011 led to all short losses, one after another, and even some backhand longs。In addition, a large number of ** chased in, forming a **bubble soaring. In this context, many institutions have cashed out, forming a recent technical **.

On August 11, both spot and **** suffered a heavy sell-off, falling more than $100 an ounce in a single day. Among them, the London spot ** fell to $1,900 an ounce, and finally fell below the $2,000 mark for the first time in a week.

2. What made the ** of "singing all the way" suddenly stop the crazy pace? Can the suppressed **** recover?

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risenWind data shows that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has continued to rise in recent days, and the recovery of the yield on the US Treasury note has been reversedThe ** of the hedging attribute has a greater suppressive effect。Accommodative monetary policy means that investors will treat gold as an asset when real yields fall, and vice versa. In this case,The opportunity cost of holding** (a non-yielding asset) is lower because the investor does not give up the cost of interest earned on the yielding asset.

2) **** At the same time, it was reported that last Friday, August 7, the world's largest **ETF SPDR Gold Shares owned by State Street suffered an outflow of 100 million US dollars, the largest withdrawal since March. Multiple factors will support the long-term rise, but in the short term, we need to be wary of the risk that the market stability will be reduced due to the increase in the proportion of trading funds.

3) In terms of vaccines, there are currently 6 vaccines with rapid research and development progress, which have entered the second or third stage. The global goal is to develop an effective vaccine by early 2021The researchers announced that if the third phase of the trial is successful, the vaccine could be put into emergency use as early as September. If the vaccine is successfully developed according to optimistic estimatesIt is self-evident that the economic recovery has weighed on gold prices.

To sum up, I don't think that the bull market is over, and the current bull market is a normal phenomenon after a big rally.

It's not the end of the bull market. From the perspective of the international economic situation, the global economic downturn caused by the new crown epidemic has affected all walks of life to varying degrees. Under the influence of risk aversion, international capital will gradually increase its holdings of **, so the ** of a single day does not affect the overall positive trend.

That's right, the current stage of the **bull market is almost over, a lot of capital has begun to sell**, and those who bought before** want to cry without tears.

I can't make a conclusion yet, but the **** in the near future must have fallen sharply.

Now the international situation is also relatively tense, and many people are selling ** to cash out.

There are also some criminals who deliberately throw short to do low** and "cut leeks".

There is no end, the single-day ** is just the appearance, from a macro point of view, the **** is still high, and the bull market is not over.

Spot ****** fell to a nine-and-a-half-month low, falling more than $20 in a single day. Medium and long-term gold prices still have investment value, and the near future may be a good opportunity.

Real interest rates remain negative in the bull market, and while the economy has picked up and the Fed has said that rate hikes are coming soon, as long as real rates remain negative, they remain bullish.