The Fed ushered in the first major interest rate cut in a decade, will there be a big bubble after t

I think there may be an economic bubble, after all, as far as this matter itself is concerned, the monetary policy meeting of the US Reserve has been in the spotlight, and the results released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on August 1, 2019 show that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points after the FOMC meeting, and the target range of the federal ** interest rate was lowered by 2% to 2.25%.

I think the impact of such a big cut is more than we thought, and it is the first rate cut since the "harsh winter" of the December 2008 financial crisis, which cut interest rates to zero in a decade. In other words, the interest rate cut itself is more likely to be a blizzard before the "severe cold".

Based on the evidence, I agree with the view that when the Fed cuts rates, there may even be a possibility of a new rate hike, but after that there will be a bigger bubble. Because I think that after this rate cut, the expansion of the economy will continue for a certain period of time, but after that, a relatively large bubble will be formed, so that it will turn into a financial crisis.

But this time, it seems that the US economy is not in a significant recession. Therefore, this rate cut may also be a so-called "routine" to prevent economic growth from weakening or slowing down, and in fact, there have been examples of interest rate cuts in the United States in the past when there is no recession, such as in 1995 and 1998. This is more like the 1998 interest rate cut, which experienced three consecutive rate cuts, and the US recession only appeared in 2001, so it can be seen that this kind of interest rate cut can effectively postpone the US recession cycle by two to three years, but it is still a palliative approach after all.

It's hard to say, after all, this rate cut is indeed a big move. The impact is not yet known, and it may be possible that a big bubble will be created.

I don't think the probability of a big bubble is very high, although the Fed is in the stage of cutting interest rates, but it is also very stable and declining.

I think it's hard to say, because if he doesn't do a big in, big out, then this will become a bubble, and now I don't know if the United States still has the ability to do big in, big out.

I think there will be a big bubble because the monetary policy in the United States is already having a very big impact on society.

This kind of behavior is very easy to cause economic bubbles, but the random impact depends on the subsequent development, and it is not certain.

From 2017 to 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and the global hot money ebbed and flowed back to the United States, causing the collapse of the currencies of some countries with a single economic structure. So it's hard to say this time.

I think it's possible, after all, he cut interest rates so much this time, it may create a bubble economy.

Not necessarily, the sharp interest rate cut this time is a policy made because the economic form is not good, that is, to prevent a bubble economy.

Personally, I don't think so, we can see that the beauty field has been along, as long as it is stable, there will be no big bubble.

I don't think it will be for our country, except for citizens who have bought U.S. stocks, and other people who are less involved in the United States should have no impact.

Actually, it seems to me that there may still be some small bubbles, but I don't know much about the specifics.

First, the Federal Reserve will increase its cautious interest rate and increase bank deposits, so the amount of money used for consumption in the market will naturally decrease, which will indirectly lead to a decrease in China's export sales;

Second, after the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar appreciates, and the currencies of other countries in the money market, including the RMB, will also welcome a short-term depreciation, which may lead to an increase in capital outflows from China;

Third, if the dollar appreciates, other commodities denominated in US dollars will naturally follow suit, for example, foreign oil will also follow, and the adjustment of PetroChina will lead to a reaction force and can only be lowered;

Fourth, if the long-term focus is on Chang, the Fed will enter an interest rate cut cycle after a certain cycle after raising interest rates, then the RMB will be ** against the US dollar, and foreign currencies such as RMB will **.

The main thing is our central bank.

It pursues an independent monetary policy.

In this way, it will be more conducive to the stable development of the domestic economy. China's central bank chose to cut interest rates mainly due to the following three factors: First, affected by the epidemic, domestic people now like to deposit money in the bank and are unwilling to spend, and the deposits of Chinese residents have exceeded 100 trillion.

Therefore, the central bank hopes to encourage everyone to spend money by cutting interest rates, so that they can stimulate economic growth through consumption.

Third, reduce the real economy.

The financing cost allows small and medium-sized enterprises to get a better development of the shortage. In order to reduce the financing cost of small and medium-sized enterprises, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can successfully pass this difficult period, and in order to maintain the steady development of China's economy, it is also a top priority for China's central bank to reduce the financing cost of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Finally, in order to protect the stability of the property market and avoid big ups and downs. Because of the Federal Reserve.

Continue to raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet.

The appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the RMB will cause a large number of floating funds to sell off domestic RMB assets and choose to outflow. Of course, due to China's relatively strict foreign exchange control, it is not easy for foreign capital to flow out, but China's central bank has injected a large amount of liquidity into the domestic financial market by cutting interest rates and reducing mortgage interest rates.

All this is conducive to the stability of the domestic financial market in the short and medium term.

The impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on China: RMB depreciation, impairment of foreign exchange reserves, raising the cost of Chinese investment, domestic asset bubbles, and price sparrows**.

1. RMB depreciation: The Fed's interest rate cut may lead to the return of US dollar assets, causing US investors to cash out US dollar assets for other currencies, which may also lead to the depreciation of the RMB. In this case, China's exports may be affected.

2. Impairment of foreign exchange reserves: If the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds falls, it may crack China's foreign exchange reserves, because China has invested a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds.

3. Raising the cost of Chinese investment: The Fed's interest rate cut may lead to stronger global liquidity and lower the burden on the capital market, thereby increasing the cost of Chinese investment.

4. Domestic asset bubbles: In the second half of the year, the domestic economy will still maintain 6% to the range. Second, the current global economic downturn, the domestic asset bubble is easy to be squeezed out, as an ordinary investor should not invest blindly, if you don't get it right, you will lose a lot, it is better to hold cash, save strength, wait for the bubble to go clean before choosing to shoot, it will be more blind and safe.

5. Prices: The Federal Reserve has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, and for ordinary Chinese people, the global economy is in a recession and the downward pressure on the domestic economy is greater, which will lead to the two possibilities of prices and unemployment. For investors, the economic downturn, China is currently in a bubble squeeze cycle, and the investment risk of the property market will be great.

What is the impact of the Fed's hint on the global economy of interest rate cuts?

The Fed's interest rate cut means money.

In order to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, China must also maintain a monetary easing policy, so that the amount of RMB will also increase, which will inevitably cause inflation, that is, the money is worthless, or the money is wool, and the people's lives are becoming more and more difficult under the condition that the wages of workers do not increase.

The Fed's interest rate cut can be seen as lowering the level of interest rates and then injecting a large amount of liquidity into the capital market, which is an important signal of monetary policy easing.

The Federal Reserve is the national ** bank of the United States, and the "interest rate" it cuts is the federal benchmark interest rate, which is the Fed's rediscount rate to commercial banks. The Fed's interest rate cut can be seen as lowering the level of interest rates and then injecting a lot of liquidity into the market, which is an important signal of monetary policy easing.

The Fed's rate cut means that the U.S. is not as strong as it used to be.

The crisis is everywhere, the Fed is sure to cut interest rates, and the United States may shut down?

It means that the money is worthless, don't deposit it in the bank.

It means that it is necessary to make a political issue.

Stimulate the vitality of micro subjects, increase household consumption expenditure through wealth effect, and promote exports.

Of course, in Liang.

In a good economic environment, there are also potential worries. For example, the manufacturing PMI new orders index fell below the 50% boom and bust line, and new non-farm payrolls also began to decline. If these trends continue, GDP growth is bound to slow down.

A country's interest rate cut will suppress the local currency exchange rate to raise ** conditions, but the US dollar has its own peculiarities. The main reason is that the inflation outlook in the United States is still optimistic, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, ** disputes, central banks in Europe and Japan will have further pressure to cut interest rates, and the "policy difference" between the Federal Reserve and the central banks of Europe and Japan will support the dollar, and the Fed's interest rate cut does not mean that the dollar trend is weakening.

The outlook for the U.S. economy deteriorated, and the Federal Reserve began a new easing cycle. The Fed's policy direction is the key to market expectations, the United States is experiencing the longest recovery cycle after the war, investors have strong expectations for the U.S. economy to enter the tail of the cycle, and the superimposed friction has clouded the U.S. economic outlook, at this node, the Fed's interest rate cut undoubtedly released to the market a signal that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in the next 12 months.

The U.S. economy is highly virtualized, and the market plays a crucial role in policy transmission and policy effects, so that the market can believe that the Fed has sufficient ability to maintain the achievement of economic and price goals, and the market is highly concerned about whether the Fed's policy is timely and appropriate, and whether the policy space is sufficient.

Considering the spillover effect of the Fed's policy, the Fed's interest rate cut will reduce the exchange rate depreciation and capital outflow pressure of some emerging markets, and the loose monetary policy space of emerging markets has increased, which is good for emerging market risk assets to a certain extent.

1. The appreciation of the RMB is expected to increase. Interest rate cuts are a tool used in a country's central bank's monetary policy, and interest rate cuts will lead to more cash flowing in the market, which means that there will be a currency depreciation. The depreciation of the US dollar is relative to the appreciation of the RMB, and after the appreciation, everyone's cost of living will be reduced, of course, this is mainly reflected in the import and export of goods.

2. It is good for **. The U.S. has cut interest rates, which means that the interest rate differential between the RMB and the US dollar has narrowed, resulting in the continuous entry of capital into the Chinese market to win more profits.

What do you mean by the Fed's interest rate cut this time?

The crisis is everywhere, the Fed is sure to cut interest rates, and the United States may shut down?

The international situation is surging, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, I think, it is possible that the price of oil in the Middle East will be reduced, which will affect international oil prices, and the cost of oil will be reduced, and oil prices will fall again.

The Fed's interest rate cut means that many people will not keep their money in the bank now, and they may store their money in other channels in the middle, and there is a lot of room for development.

If the Fed cuts interest rates, the cost of using the dollar will be reduced, the income from the funds deposited will be reduced, and the outflow of funds from the banks will also lead to a decrease in the import capacity of the United States.

The Fed's interest rate cut will boost assets**, which in turn will boost household consumption spending through the wealth effect, promote a positive economic cycle of employment, and depress the dollar exchange rate to boost exports.

The Fed's rate cut means more borrowers. Nowadays, the economic situation in the world is turbulent, and many anti-globalization trends are rising, so economic exchange activities are also turbulent, and everyone should be cautious in investing.

The Fed's interest rate cut means that the liquidity of the economic market will be strengthened, which is good for **. For our country, there is more room for maneuver in the economy, and interest rates may also be cut.

The Fed's interest rate hikes and cuts are when the Fed raises or lowers the federal interest rate, which is simply to raise interest rates in the United States.

The Fed's interest rate hike allows customers to get higher interest rates on deposits when they deposit their money in banks, and conversely, the cost of borrowing money from banks will also increase, resulting in companies borrowing money from banks and having to pay back more money. In the end, there will be an increase in bank deposits and a decrease in loans, so as to achieve the goal of returning funds to the United States.

The Fed's interest rate cut refers to the way banks use interest rate adjustments to change the way they finance their cash flows. When banks cut interest rates, the return on depositing funds in the bank decreases, so the interest rate cut will cause funds to flow out of the bank, and deposits will become investments or consumption, and as a result, the liquidity of funds will increase.

The main factors that the central bank considers in determining the level of interest rates are:

Employment level. Employment is the most critical factor holding back interest rate hikes, because interest rate hikes have a significant inhibitory effect on investment and consumption, so interest rate hikes usually put some pressure on employment. If the level of employment is low, interest rate hikes may trigger wider unemployment and even social unrest, which is not conducive to economic recovery.

The level of inflation. Inflation is the most critical factor holding back interest rate cuts, as it may lead to lower real purchasing power, lower willingness to save, and capital outflows. If inflation is too high, the gap between the rich and the poor may further widen, domestic contradictions will increase, affecting social order, and the expectation of price increases will also disrupt the economic order.