Is it possible for pork prices to return below 10 yuan?

Is it possible for pork ** to recover below $10? Mine is: in a year or two, no way!

Why is it impossible? Here I would like to share my opinion for four reasons:

First, the construction of a new rural area, pig breeding out of the rural market.

Although the number of pigs raised by rural people is limited, you must know that "everyone can drive a big boat like a paddle", when I was a child, every rural family raised pigs, and there were at least as many pigs as there were in a village, and year after year, the cycle repeatedly. For example, there were 30,000 households in our town and 30,000 pigs. But nowadays, you can't see a whole village, not a single pig.

Scarcity is expensive, and the lack of pig breeding links in rural areas is also one of the reasons for pork.

Second, the high requirements for environmental protection throughout the country have added a layer of barriers to pig breeding.

A friend of mine told me his true story. He had been working in a provincial capital city in the south, and after accumulating a certain amount of funds, he wanted to go back to his hometown to engage in pig breeding, but after more than half a year of struggle, he finally chose to give up.

Because, now pig farming and the past is completely different, now pig raising, the requirements for environmental protection are getting higher and higher, if there is no strong financial strength, it is impossible to invest in pig projects. The restrictions on environmental protection have also made many people who are interested in pig breeding stop at the door.

Third, the epidemic situation abroad has affected the import of pork channels.

In fact, before China's imports of foreign pork ** basically between 8-10 yuan catty, that is to say, foreign large-scale pig breeding, or can reduce pork ** very low, even if the cost of China's pig breeding is higher, then 15 yuan within a catty, there will be a certain profit. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, such a ** has long been a thing of the past, and the epidemic has blocked the import channels, and the ** will naturally rise.

And how long the epidemic will last, no one can give a definite answer.

Fourth, the current soaring housing prices in major cities in China have also indirectly increased the price of pork.

Housing prices and pork seem to be two concepts that are incompatible, but there is no doubt that the soaring price of housing has also promoted the improvement of other commodities, because everything is complementary to each other.

Some people admit that compared with the high housing prices, 30 yuan a pound of pork is not too much.

Many friends have such questions: Now pork ** 30 yuan catty, will it fall to 12-15 yuan catty in the future? In our view, this possibility is very small.

First of all, the problem of pork supply has not been solved, the pig gap has not been filled, and secondly, the diplomatic environment facing our country is not ideal, the United States has been taking the posture of forcible seizure, overbearing pressure on our country, which has also led to the import of corn and soybean crops from the United States, which will be in an unstable state.

In addition, coupled with the locust plague in Africa and Southeast Asia and the floods in our country, it has brought immeasurable losses to the grain production.

Pork is not likely to recover below ten yuan, with the current situation, pork is on the rise, especially now that the price of vegetables, eggs and meat is **, it is impossible to **, it is estimated that it will be higher by the time of the New Year.

Everyone's opinion is different, of course, what I said is not necessarily right, I don't think so, because people's demand for pork is very large now, even before the recovery, it is impossible to drop below 10 yuan.

Possibly, because although it is high now, maybe it will drop to 10 yuan in the future.

What is the reason for the return of pork ** to more than 10 yuan? The reason for the high price of pork is the lack of pig stocks, and the supply exceeds the demand. China's pig industry relies on large-scale pig farms, farmers do not raise, the rate of pigs out of the circle is less, and pork is soaring wildly.

In order to balance prices, the state can only import a large amount of pork to supplement and stabilize **. Many reasons contributed to the rise of pork, under the premise that the prospect is not clear, want pork to return to a reasonable price, it still takes a long way to go, the first is the breeding pig, it seems that the breeding enterprises are the beneficiaries of the ** pork, in fact, the bitterness of the breeding enterprises is only known to the baby itself, they just earned a part of the earnings, and the final majority of the breeding institutions were taken away.

Now pig raising is a matter of science. First of all, the location of the pig farm should be good. Away from places with more logistics, it is convenient for biosecurity control, and the environment in the north is better than that in the south.

Secondly, the construction of pig farms should be good. The more modern the pig farm, the fewer people are employed, so that the pig farm will be less and less affected by people, so that it can develop steadily. As a general rule, the temperature and humidity of the barn and good ventilation conditions should be ensured.

Eat comfortably and minimize cross-contact. A comfortable place to rest is guaranteed. Pig-oriented, try to meet the needs of pigs.

Third, the introduction of seeds should be good. A good breed is the basis for success. Generally speaking, varieties with fast growth rate and strong fecundity have the disadvantage of poor resistance.

On the contrary, those with strong resistance have poor growth indicators. I recommend that you first ensure your health. Choose a breed with better resistance.

Fourth, the feeding management should be good. Choose the feed that matches the nutrient system of the pig breed. Nutritional needs are guaranteed.

The immunization program is determined by the detection of antibodies. Strengthen the care of pigs, ensure a comfortable growth environment, and detect problems early. and deal with it in a timely manner.

In the non-plague era, biosecurity should be put in the first place. Pig raising is a slow life, because animal feeding, not plant feeding, pigs have requirements for feed, environment, etc.

Because the demand for pork market is surging and the cost of breeding is increasing, the pork will be the only one.

The continuation of pork is caused by changes in market supply and demand, and this pork is also due to the timely adjustment of supply and demand.

National Bureau of Statistics: May pork ****.

On June 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in May, the national household consumption ** (CPI** year-on-year**, month-on-month decline, which is the first month-on-month decline this year.

Regarding the reasons for the month-on-month decline in CPI, Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from a month-on-month perspective, CPI turned from a decline in the previous month. Among them, the food ** turned from the previous month** to a decline, affecting the CPI to decline by about one percentage point. In food, with the large number of fresh vegetables on the market, logistics are gradually smooth, and fresh vegetables are declining; **Reserve pork storage work continues to be carried out, and the effect of pig production capacity reduction is gradually emerging, pork ****; Affected by the high international food prices, domestic flour, grain products and edible vegetable oil are respectively and.

Pork and fresh vegetables** rose and fell, the epidemic and holiday factors are intertwined, and the transmission of external inflationary pressure constitute the main influencing factors of the current CPI changes. Ying Xiwen, a researcher at Minsheng Bank, told the International Financial News, "However, with the decline in consumer demand in summer, the momentum of meat has begun to weaken, and other meats have declined except pork, such as beef and mutton respectively. In terms of vegetable prices, with the good weather and the recovery of logistics, as well as the abundance of fresh vegetables under the 'vegetable basket' supply guarantee policy, fresh vegetables were significantly 15% month-on-month, which became an important factor contributing to the overall decline in food.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in May, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was yuan kilogram, up from the previous month and down 26% from the same period last year; The average wholesale price of vegetables was yuan kilogram, down month-on-month and up year-on-year.

Due to pork, there is a certain pressure on food. Experts said that in the second half of the year, the CPI increase in individual months may be more than 3%, but the overall CPI increase is moderate.

As pork ** enters the recovery cycle, the suppressive effect on CPI in the past year has quietly changed to an upward effect. In recent times, food ** has remained stable, mainly relying on the short-term decline of fresh vegetables**. With the arrival of the flood season, after the rebound of fresh vegetables, the cyclical nature of pork will be superimposed, and there will be some price pressure on food.

Ying Xiwen said.

Based on two major factors, such as pork repair and ****** expectations, the annual CPI was slightly revised upwards to the center of the year-on-year pivot. Qin Tai, chief macro analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan, pointed out.

Pork is very difficult in a short period of time. It is because the quantity of the whole pork in the current market is relatively large, and the current supply of the entire market is greater than the demand, so it is difficult to decline in the short term for the current entire pork. <>

First of all, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic this year and African swine fever, China's ** has soared, and for some places, in order to make the environment better, they have also introduced some relatively strict environmental protection policies to limit the development of some small pig farms, so for last year, the entire pork ** appeared very unreasonable**, although the demand for the whole pork has not changed much, but due to the decline in the technology of the controller, it has been high. Moreover, the demand for pork in the whole market is also difficult to meet, so the state has to promote the national reserve of frozen pork to alleviate the tension as much as possible. <>

And the state has also introduced a propaganda policy to support the development of the entire pig market, the most important thing is that for some small farms to relax certain controls and restrictions, so for some small pig farms, their entire breeding business can continue to operate furniture, so the number of pigs has also rebounded to a certain scale, and for last year, the number of pigs has declined sharply, the entire pork has appeared a large **, It has also attracted some farmers to start corresponding pig breeding. Therefore, since that time, the number of pigs has begun to rebound, and this year, this batch of small masters has reached the time when they can be slaughtered, so the number of pork in the entire pig market has increased significantly. <>

Therefore, for the current pork **, it is still a little difficult to appear**. However, pork is also an inevitable trend, because the current low cost is lower than the production cost of some farmers, so it will make some farmers give up breeding, so there will be a certain rebound and ** for the whole pig in the future.

At present, there is no **, and pork ** is still very low, and pork freedom can still be realized.

Judging from the current situation and the market, pork may finally start after a period of time.

There is no start**. And now there is still a trend of price reduction, ** is very low, and the situation of pork freedom has also been realized.

There is a little upward phenomenon, but it is not very obvious, after all, the current swine fever is very serious, and the disease has not been completely solved.

For pork in some areas, it has returned to 10 yuan, this level is already very low, and it is unlikely that the price will continue to be reduced, but for the current entire pork **, sales ** is also a relatively difficult thing, and for the current relatively low **range, it will definitely be maintained for a period of time. <>

Due to the impact of the value of the new crown epidemic last year, there have been certain problems with the entire pork, and the entire pork in our country has a certain problem due to the current control of foreign countries, and some small-scale farmers have also been closed down because of environmental protection policies, so the entire pork has declined significantly, so there is a very serious contradiction between supply and demand, so that in the last year, the survival of the ** There has been a large **, and for most consumers, even wanting to eat pork has become a luxury. <>

For the entire pork market there has been a large shortage of the problem, the country is also not using a certain reserve meat to alleviate the corresponding market shortage, more importantly, for the whole **, the state is also in order to be able to make up for the gap in the entire market as soon as possible, so the state has also introduced corresponding policies to compensate these farmers, hoping that these farmers can breed some pigs as soon as possible to make up for the losses and shortages of the entire market. <>

Therefore, it will make the whole number of pork have a relatively large increase in a short period of time, and the pigs that began to be bred last year have now reached the time point of slaughter, so the last number of the whole market has a relatively large-scale increase, but for consumers in the whole market, their demand has not changed much, when the entire supply is greater than the demand, it will make the whole pork ** appear to a certain extent**, so the whole pork ** It will still be maintained in a more reasonable ** range.