Is the weather forecast accurate for 15 days, and how many days does the weather forecast take to be

All weather forecasts are more or less the same, and there is some accuracy.

Model weather forecasting is to design a huge set of programs to calculate weather forecasts, input the current known weather phenomena, and it can calculate the future state of atmospheric movement and weather conditions.

Changes in weather are the result of changes in the movement of the atmosphere around the Earth. The fundamental laws of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics in physics can be used to analyze changes in the motion of the atmosphere, and these laws can be written in mathematical language as mathematical equations. People use large-scale computers to solve these mathematical equations to predict the future ...... of air pressure, temperature, wind direction, wind speed, and precipitation in a certain area

None of the ** models can simulate the evolution of the atmosphere completely realistically, only approximations, so there must be errors. Moreover, the error will be cumulative, and the longer the forecast time, the greater the error.

Generally speaking, the weather forecast for 15 days is inaccurate, because it is only a ** function.

Inaccurate. The best global forecast performance is in the medium term of Europe, and the 7-day 2019 can be reported to be about 60% accurate, and those that exceed it can only be referenced.

And the temperature forecast is more accurate than rainfall and the like.

The weather forecast for 15 days can only be used as a reference, and the weather in the middle will change for a variety of reasons.

It will not be very high, looking at the probability of 60% of the days from a distance, and 85% of the days will be accurate if it is constantly adjusted.

Weather forecasts within 7 days are the most accurate.

Limited by the level of scientific and technological development, the weather forecast within 7 days is still certain, and the closer the time, the greater the reliability, so the current weather forecast released to the public in China is generally within a week. Warm winter or cold winter refers to the general trend of temperature throughout the winter (usually refers to December-February), the temperature in China in December this year is low, is a cold winter or warm winter, but also depends on the situation in next year.

How accurate is a 15-day weather forecast?

1.What is the 15-day weather forecast?

The 15-day weather forecast is a weather forecast service provided to the public by the meteorological department based on the existing meteorological data and scientific computer models to predict and analyze the weather conditions in the next 15 days.

2.The method of calculating the forecast accuracy.

The accuracy of the forecast is calculated by comparing the forecast results with the actual results based on the actual weather conditions to obtain the percentage of accuracy. For example, if 13 out of 15 days of the forecast is accurate, then the accuracy rate is .

3.What is the actual accuracy rate?

According to the statistics of the meteorological department, the accuracy rate of the 15-day weather forecast is about 70%. That is, there are 3 days in the forecast where the weather conditions do not match the reality. However, it should be noted that the accuracy rate will vary depending on the region, season, and other factors.

4.Factors that affect the accuracy of forecasting.

Weather forecasting is a complex task, and accuracy is affected by many factors. One of the most important factors is the accuracy of the meteorological equipment, if the meteorological equipment is not accurate enough, there will be errors in the collected meteorological data.

Secondly, the interpretation and calculation of meteorological data by forecasters in meteorological departments will also affect the accuracy of forecasting. If the forecasters are not high enough, the forecasting results are prone to errors.

In addition, seasonal changes, meteorological environment, and meteorological phenomena will also affect the accuracy of forecasts.

5.How to improve the accuracy of forecasting.

In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting, it is first necessary to improve meteorological equipment with higher accuracy and more advanced meteorological technology. At the same time, meteorological departments also need to actively train and select excellent meteorological forecasters to improve their forecasting skills.

6.The significance of weather forecasting.

Weather forecasting is not only an indispensable service in personal life, but also a reference for making major decisions in various areas of the country. Meteorological forecasting can help various industries effectively prevent and reduce the losses caused by weather disasters, and plays a very important role in promoting the development of various national undertakings.

7.How can I get an accurate weather forecast?

In order to obtain accurate weather forecasts, we can obtain forecast data through multiple channels, such as TV, mobile apps, and the Internet. At the same time, you can also get the latest weather forecast information by paying attention to the meteorological department, Pai Qizheng, and other channels.

8.Epilogue.

The accuracy of weather forecasting needs to be improved step by step, which also requires more advanced technology and a higher level of forecasting. It is foreseeable that with the continuous progress of science and technology, the accuracy of weather forecasting will become higher and higher, making greater contributions to people's lives and social development.

At present, our weather forecast accuracy rate is more than 80%. Of course, this is a 24-hour forecast, and it is conceivable that the forecast for the next half month is very low. I wasted almost 30 years on this.

My general idea is to abandon the old way of studying the atmosphere with poor memory, and to go astronomical, because I believe that the driving force for atmospheric change comes from the different positions of the planets on the Sun. Only by understanding the laws of this driving force and its relationship to rain or shine can we truly provide for humanity. That's why I think we have to find a long-term approach to weather forecasting from astronomy.

Feel good about yourself at the moment! And for other reasons, I also studied the Southern Hemisphere, which is opposite to our season, for almost a year and felt good about myself.

At present, we are sorting out and perfecting our research results and striving to serve the motherland's construction and people's livelihood at an early date. Jiang from Jinhua, Zhejiang.