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No way, by 2020, the wage level will be 2-3 times that of today, and the high-speed rail ticket** will be almost unchanged. Because the pricing of the Ministry of Railways is dead, the high price of high-speed rail at the beginning has reserved space for at least 20 years in the future. So as long as you can afford to take a car today, by 2020, you can afford to ride high-speed rail.
Today, some people are not accustomed to the fare of high-speed rail, but in 2020, high-speed rail will be the first choice for most people, and few people will choose ordinary trains. Except for a small number of high-speed railways with mixed passenger and freight runs, it is impossible to run ordinary trains on the general high-speed rail, and a small number of ordinary trains will be retained on the existing lines. I don't believe you, wait and see.
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300-350km h of high-speed railway is not allowed ordinary train on the road, ordinary train axle load is too large, has a great impact on the roadbed of high-speed railway, and high-speed EMU on high-speed railway running speed reached 100 meters second, for the flatness of the railway requirements are quite high, there is more than 1 mm of unstability on the track may cause the danger of car destruction and death, and ordinary railway even if there is 5 mm of unstability is also bearable. In addition, if ordinary trains run on high-speed railways, it will also have a great impact on the efficiency of high-speed bullet trains.
In today's China, all state-owned enterprises are frantically exploiting the wealth of the people, not just the railways. Like the domestic oil market, the international oil market, and the mobile communication market, those monopoly state-owned enterprises are all a virtue. However, railway passenger transportation is not actually profitable, ordinary trains have implemented a benchmark fare for more than ten years, and high-speed rail is estimated to be no exception, considering inflation factors (now China's inflation is indeed very alarming) after more than ten years of high-speed rail fares can also be slowly accepted.
In addition, the Ministry of Railways absolutely cannot and will not exterminate all the ordinary trains on these trunk lines, at least a few symbolic ones, and it is unrealistic to kill them all. However, Beijing-Shanghai, Beijing-Guangzhou, Beijing-Shenyang-Harbin-Da, Shanghai-Kunming, Xulan-Lanxin, Zhengyu (Chongqing) Kun (Ming), Zheng (Zhou) He (Fei) Hangzhou (Zhou), Beng (Port) He (Fei) Fu (Zhou) and other large long trunk lines will basically be dominated by high-speed bullet trains, and Shanghai-Hanrong, coastal these two trunk lines also have the plan to reserve the construction of 350km h high-speed railway. In addition, some areas without high-speed rail coverage and high-speed rail coverage areas also rely on ordinary trains for rail transportation, so don't be pessimistic to that extent.
However, the few ordinary trains will also become Japanese ships.
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The high-speed rail is all EMUs, and it will not run ordinary passenger cars pulled by locomotives, because the axles of ordinary passenger cars are large, and the damage to the track is great, which is easy to cause the destruction of the railway track. In order to meet the needs of different people, some low-speed trains will be reserved on the ordinary line.
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You can rest assured that ordinary people will be able to sit up!
Ordinary trains won't go away! They will be used as a supplement to high-speed rail: for example, high-speed rail is like a human vessel, and those former railways are capillaries!
I think some small cities will be used in places where high-speed rail can't radiate! As for what you think people will not be able to afford, I don't think so, in fact, you think that high-speed rail can also replace airplanes in some cases. In the next few decades, China's main means of transportation will be high-speed rail, so high-speed rail may be a little expensive, but it is convenient for everyone after all.
His ** and speed positioning are between the ordinary railway and the plane, maybe everyone thinks that now he and the ordinary railway are more expensive, but for my national economy, he still has more advantages than disadvantages. He is more conducive to the development of the commodity economy, and also fully prepared for China's future economic transformation (exports turned into domestic demand).
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There are still 20 years to go. Why worry about so much.
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Technically, probably not.
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