Questionnaire on the impact of exchange rate changes on the employment of international trade majors

First, we use the model to calculate the number of new jobs under different exchange rate scenarios, and the results show that the number of jobs in the primary industry tends to decrease regardless of the exchange rate assumption scenario, and the amount is not much different. After 2013, the number of new jobs created in the two scenarios is basically the same: under the "Scenario 3" of gradual appreciation, although the annual number of new jobs in the secondary industry is always lower than that of the constant exchange rate, it avoids the greater impact of one-time appreciation on employment.

From the perspective of the changes in the number of employment in the tertiary industry, whether it is a one-time appreciation or a gradual appreciation, the impact on the annual new employment is not large, and the annual number of new jobs in the tertiary industry is significantly higher than that in the secondary industry: this situation shows that the adverse impact of exchange rate appreciation on employment is mainly concentrated in the secondary industry, which includes the export sector, and a one-time relatively large appreciation may have a greater impact on employment in the short term.

Secondly, we use the simulation results to analyze the changes in the industrial structure of employment under different exchange rate scenarios. The results show that no matter which exchange rate assumption is adopted, the trend of employment structure change in the three industries is basically the same, and the general trend is that the proportion of employment in the primary industry to the total employment shows a significant downward trend, the proportion of employment in the secondary industry shows a slow downward trend, and the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry increases rapidly with the passage of time.

If the exchange rate of the renminbi continues to fluctuate in the current way of slow appreciation, the impact on the domestic economic situation will not be too great, but it will still have a relatively large impact on the long-term domestic and international economy.

Effect of exchange rate changes.

1. Import and export.

Generally speaking, the reduction of the local currency exchange rate, that is, the depreciation of the foreign value of the local currency, can play a role in promoting exports and inhibiting imports; If the exchange rate of the local currency rises, that is, the ratio of the local currency to the outside world rises, it is conducive to imports and not conducive to exports.

2. Prices. From the point of view of imported consumer goods and raw materials, the decline in the exchange rate will cause the **** of imported goods in the country. The extent to which it affects the general price index depends on the share of imported goods and raw materials in GDP. On the contrary, if the local currency appreciates and other conditions remain unchanged, the price of imported goods may decrease, which can play a role in suppressing the overall price level.

3. Employment. A strong exchange rate leads to a reduction in the size of domestic exports, a decrease in the demand for labour, and a worsening of the country's employment situation, while a decrease in the exchange rate does the opposite.