Whether the GNP is a census or a sample survey

As a transitional measure, the calculation of GDP per capita should be based on the permanent population as the denominator.

In the era of planned economy, due to the strict management of household registration, the scale of the floating population was very small, and the value of the permanent resident population and the registered population was very close? Why should GDP per capita be calculated on the basis of permanent population?

GDP per capita is the ratio of GDP to the average population of the same period in a given period. According to international standards, China's accounting system also stipulates that the per capita GDP should be calculated by using the permanent resident population in the demographic statistics, so the use of the registered population to calculate the per capita GDP has little impact on objectively reflecting the development level and affluence of a region. With the rapid advancement of reform and opening up and the rapid development of the market economy, the population flow between regions is becoming more and more frequent, and the difference between the registered population and the permanent resident population in various places is getting bigger and bigger, and the caliber of the population data used is also different, generally speaking.

5%。The survey will be revised to eliminate GDP per capita based on registered population after two years.

According to the National Sample Survey of 1% of the Population conducted in 2005, in 2003, no permanent resident population data was available for most years in areas below the provincial level. Therefore, in order to accurately reflect the per capita GDP level of each place and ensure the comparability of data between regions, the average population of the area with a large inflow of population should use the average permanent population of the same period, in order to enhance the representativeness of the regions below the provincial level, the survey sample has been expanded in all places, and the proportion of the actual survey in our city exceeds 2 of the total population, and the per capita GDP is calculated by using the registered population. Therefore, it is difficult for each region to accurately reflect the objective reality when calculating per capita GDP, and it is possible to calculate the per capita GDP of two calibers at the same time within two years, with the national and provincial governments using the permanent resident population, while the regions below the provincial level are calculated according to the registered population.

In 2003, the National Bureau of Statistics issued a document to improve and standardize the calculation method of regional per capita GDP, which stipulates that from January 1, 2004, all regions should uniformly use the permanent population to calculate per capita GDP, and make the same adjustment to historical data, regardless of whether it is a country or a region.

In practice, due to the difficulty in obtaining permanent population data, it mainly relies on the census of every 0 years, the 1% population sample survey every 5 years and the annual sample survey of population changes, and the sample survey is only representative of the national and provincial levels, and the per capita GDP is easy to be overestimated. In areas with large outflows, per capita GDP is often underestimated, which affects the comparability and accuracy of regional per capita GDP and how to calculate per capita GDP.

This is because the per capita monthly income of working households follows a normal distribution when the sample is large enough. i.e. x n(845,175).

There are a few important area proportions to keep in mind for the normal distribution map:

The area between the axis and the normal curve is always equal to 1.

Under the normal curve, the area of the horizontal axis interval ( -area is the probability is, the area of the horizontal axis interval ( -2 , 2 ) is the probability is, and the area of the horizontal axis interval ( -3 , 3 ) is the probability .

The horizontal axis interval ( , the area is the probability is, and the horizontal axis interval ( , the area is the probability is.

Therefore, the intervals corresponding to the two probabilities required in the problem are the mean plus or minus 1 and 2 respectively.

The 3-sigma and 6-sigma theorems, commonly used in quality control, are carried out using this principle.