Moutai is up again! How much has Moutai risen in recent years?

Recently, in Kweichow Moutai.

and Kweichow Moutai 2019 Distributor Conference, learned about Moutai.

In the next year sales are planned for 34,500 tons. Moutai's share price has risen to 115 times! CAGR growth rate.

For. If Moutai's minimum share price reaches yuan, compared with the current stock price (780 yuan), Moutai's share price has increased by 189 times.

First of all, if it is based on the opening price of 27 yen on August 2001.

Calculation, the company's market value at that time was 100 million yuan, and yesterday, when the stock price was yuan, the market value was 1 trillion yuan. It is understood that Moutai's output in Guizhou last year (2019) was 31,000 tons, and in 2020 it increased by 3,500 tons compared to this year. Industry insiders told reporters, "an increase of 3,500 tons is of little significance to the current market demand that exceeds supply."

Next year, Moutai will still be "difficult to buy".

At the same time, during this period, Moutai issued 17 cash dividends.

16 annual dividends and 1 special dividend, excluding those implemented in 2017), which were transferred back to shares when listed in 2001. Up to now, each share has accumulated RMB (tax included). Over the past 17 years, the company has issued 8 shares, doubling its share capital.

At the time of listing, the total share capital.

100 million shares, now 100 million shares.

Finally, it is often said that "the A** field is not suitable for long-term value investment", as long as there is Moutai in this market, the above conclusion can be falsified. By 2020, at least 80% of the wine must be sold at the front desk, otherwise, the doors will be closed. The aim is to balance the market and allow consumers to buy Moutai at a lower premium.

After understanding the 19 Kweichow Moutai dealer conference, Guizhou announced that next year's sales plan is 34,500 tons. According to the calculation that one ton of Moutai in the market is equivalent to 2,124 bottles, in 2020, 10,000 bottles will be put into the Moutai and Guizhou markets.

Moutai has indeed risen in price again, and it has risen by about 2,000 yuan in recent years, which is still quite high.

Moutai's market value has risen several times in recent years, and Moutai, as the first liquor stock in A-shares, has grown the most.

In recent years, Moutai has gone from a few hundred at the beginning, then a thousand, to 1,500 now, with a basic ** width of more than 50%, and ** times up to a dozen times!

Kweichow Moutai was listed in 2001 and has been listed for 20 years. Its share price has increased by 370 times from the yuan ** before the resumption to 1671 yuan. The average compound rate of return is as high as 35%, properly outperforming the A** field**.

You must know that the housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are only 6 times that of 10 years.

1. Moutai is a typical example of franchise rights in Buffett's eyes, but Bin and Lin Yuan, these folk stock gods, have been able to become private stock gods and establish their own private equity by constantly **Moutai** and holding them for a long time. As the national liquor, Moutai will still be the leader of the consumer industry in the future. Although the market has overvalued Moutai in the past two years, investors can still take the form of regular investment to hold it for a long time and smooth the cost.

2. Although Kweichow Moutai has experienced rapid growth in China's A** field, Warren Buffett once said that eggs cannot be put in the same basket. As a qualified investor, you can't invest all your money in one enterprise, but should conduct in-depth research in more industries to tap the leading enterprises that have relative competitive advantages. On the one hand, as China's future economic development model has changed from rugged rapid growth to high-quality growth, the market share will be further concentrated in the hands of leading enterprises.

On the other hand, holding a single ** is extremely risky, and the ** portfolio can reduce the risk of volatility and avoid the permanent loss of principal caused by black swans. It is recommended that investors can choose within 10 industry leaders as their portfolio.

3. If investors have average stock selection ability, it is recommended to choose the index ** of consumption, medicine and medical care, and technology industries as an alternative. Although it does not have an average annual growth rate of more than 30% like Kweichow Moutai, the average return on equity is also more than 15%, which has far exceeded the average yield of 10% of A-shares. It is recommended that investors invest regularly for a long time, avoid choosing the right time, and share the asset appreciation brought by the long-term performance growth of the enterprise.

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Moutai has risen by 20% since its listing, which is really a super big increase, and the benefits are considerable.

So far, it has doubled 115 times, and then this wine has experienced a lot of setbacks and ups and downs since it was launched, and the **** has also risen significantly.

It has risen 117 times over the years, and it can also be seen that the development of Moutai is very good and has very good development prospects.

Will Moutai fall below 2,000 yuan?

Since Moutai stood at a high of 2,600 yuan, the Year of the Ox has been unfavorable as soon as the market opens. On March 2, ** at 2058 Dayang per share, the lowest price in the session was 2033 yuan per share. Moutai ushered in another wave of major adjustments.

However, this is also very common. Moutai has had at least five adjustments in its history, and two of them were worse than halves, with five adjustments of more than 20%. Will Moutai fall below 2,000 yuan in this adjustment?

The first major adjustment - from January to October 2008, in just nine months, Moutai fell from 230 yuan** to 84 yuan, a drop of 63%, which was worse than halving;

The second major adjustment - from July 2012 to January 2014, this time it was a year and a half, from 266 yuan to 118 yuan, a drop of 56%, and then halved;

The third major adjustment - from May to August 2015, about three months, from 290 yuan ** to 166 yuan, a decline of 43%, close to halving;

The fourth major adjustment - from January 2018 to October 2018, another nine months, this time it fell from 800 yuan to 509 yuan, a decline of 36%, which is smaller than the above;

The fifth major adjustment - from November 2019 to February 2020, another 3 months, Moutai fell from 1241 yuan** to 960 yuan, a decline of 23%, which is the smallest in the previous adjustments.

On February 10, 2021, the highest ** price of Moutai was 2,601 yuan. As of noon on March 2, Moutai has fallen by nearly 20%. It's another big adjustment, but I don't know when this time will end?

And to what extent? Will it fall below 2,000 yuan?

Having said that, although Moutai has undergone five major adjustments, and each adjustment is higher than 20%, today's Moutai still rushed to a high level of 2,600 yuan, which is more than many times more than the most important adjustment in history. Maybe this adjustment will be healthier?

Throughout the history of Moutai**, there have been at least five adjustments, each of which was more than 20%, and two of them were cut in half. Recently, Moutai has fallen a lot, and if it continues to fall, it is not conducive to **.

Moutai has several big ** ones: from January to October 2008, it fell from 230 yuan to 84 yuan, a decrease of 63%. From July 2012 to January 2014, from 266 yuan to 118 yuan, a drop of 56%.

From May to August 2015, it fell from 290 yuan to 166 yuan, a decrease of 43%, close to the waist; From January 2018 to October 2018. This time, it fell from 800 yuan to 509 yuan, a decrease of 36%; From November 2019 to February 2020, Moutai fell from 1,241 yuan to 960 yuan, a decrease of 23%.

A total of 5 times, namely 2001-2003, 2007-2008, 2012-2013, 2015, 2018.

Moutai was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on August 27, 2001, when the issue price per share of Moutai was yuan, and the opening price on the first day was yuan shares. Moutai ** has been listed for 19 years, rising more than 100 times, and the average annualized rate of return is about 32. You must know that even if he is the stock god Warren Buffett, his annualized rate of return is a little more than 20% per year.

It can be said that if the 500,000 yuan of the year bought Moutai ** and left it as the house, it would be worth at least 100 million now.

Extended Materials. 1. The lowest price in the history of Moutai is yuan (ex-right price), it is 600519 Kweichow Moutai, the listing date is 2001-08-27, its issuance ** is yuan shares, the opening price on the first day is yuan, and the lowest price in history is September 23), when it has reached the yuan shares.

2. Its current compounding ** has reached the vicinity, so if it is held at the lowest price** at that time, it is currently 88 times. It is worth noting that this calculation excludes the impact of the rest of the dividends of listed companies, so the actual income has to be mentioned upwards.

3. Industry experts believe that although Moutai's financial attributes and investment attributes will not fade immediately because of the above measures, with the long-term efforts of relevant departments and enterprises, the situation that Moutai is overly sought after by capital and consumer markets will change. In the future, Moutai is also expected to enter the era of "wine is for drinking, not for hoarding and frying".

4. Kweichow Moutai's money-making logic is very simple, that is, the production and production of Moutai with a high degree of pricing power, and the high degree of pricing power ensures the extremely high gross profit margin of Moutai, which makes Kweichow Moutai a simple and easy-to-understand money-making machine. The pricing power of Moutai mainly comes from the reality that the monopoly of production and strong brand influence caused by the shortage of supply.

5. Moutai is produced in Moutai Town, six kilometers northwest of Renhuai City, Naxin City, Guizhou Province, relying on the special local regional environment (water, sorghum, microbiota). This has formed a monopoly on the production of Moutai.

6. The foundation of Moutai's strong brand is naturally the quality of Moutai, but on the other hand, there are also historical reasons after Jianming sold tomato, the attention of national leaders such as ***, ***, and the recommendation of diplomatic occasions have endowed Moutai with strong humanistic feelings. As long as Moutai is well maintained and promoted, these historical emotions can be maintained, and the strong brand influence of Moutai can be maintained.

7. At present, Kweichow Moutai will have such a serious ****, the core reason is that there are not many people who really consume Moutai in the market. Nowadays, most consumers of Kweichow Moutai want to maintain and increase the value of their assets by investing in Kweichow Moutai, and even hope to speculate on Kweichow Moutai to promote the improvement of their wealth, which is actually the real problem of Kweichow Moutai at present.

Because chasing up and down is the normal operation of many people, this is also the general attitude of most people towards investment products and business index companions.

For an excellent commodity like Kweichow Moutai, Kweichow Moutai not only has strong drinking value, but also has financial attributes. It is precisely because Kweichow Moutai has financial attributes that when the price of Kweichow Moutai's liquor is fully extended, many people will feel very panicked because of **, so it will trigger the sell-off of Kweichow Moutai. In a sense, this situation is only a short-term emotional reaction, and does not continue to reflect the stupidity in the market.

1. The price of liquor in Kweichow Moutai is all over the line**.

Because everyone is generally not optimistic about the consumer market, there has been a sell-off of Kweichow Moutai in the market, and the ** of many liquors once fell below about 10%, and the ** of some high-end liquors has even fallen below 40%, which is a very exaggerated decline. In such a situation, many unknown ** also began to sell their treasured Kweichow Moutai, and ** in the investment market also began to sell Kweichow Moutai**. <>

Second, the reason for the sell-off is mainly blindly following the trend.

The reason for this situation is that, on the one hand, everyone is generally not optimistic about the future of the consumer market, and it is also related to everyone's blind follow-up. As I said above, many investors in the market will easily listen to the actions of others, and at the same time, they will also act like chasing the rise and killing the fall. When everyone is generally not optimistic about Kweichow Moutai, many people will follow the trend and sell Kweichow Moutai.

Third, I think everyone needs to have the ability to make independent judgments.

We must know that Kweichow Moutai is the largest in the A**field, which means that the volume of Kweichow Moutai cannot make Kweichow Moutai suddenly**. In a sense, when encountering this special situation, investors need to make independent judgments, and they need to make corresponding stop-loss and take-profit operations according to their own psychological expectations, and there is no need to blindly believe in the behavior of others. <>

Because of the situation on the top, people want to buy, partly because of the trend, which eventually triggered a sell-off.