06 pig price changes, 2013 pig prices?

The trend of the main domestic pig producing areas: soaring.

Through the ** range of pig prices this time, we can once again verify the previous assessment of the pig inventory. The current pig herd level should be reduced by about 20% compared with normal, and even higher in some areas, such as the southern provinces that have suffered from typhoons, floods, and high fever. The largest price increase this time is also in the south.

Before, the price of pigs in Sichuan Province rarely exceeded 4 yuan catty, because its breeding model is mainly free-range, the cost is low, even if the first is poor, the number of sows eliminated is limited, therefore, the first is lower. The rise of more than 4 yuan, one is that the drought has affected production, and the surrounding provinces have suffered from drought, floods, high fever, strong demand, and ** serious shortage, some buyers reflect, no pigs can be collected. A large number of purchases have been made in Sichuan, which has raised the price of pigs in the production area.

Pig prices are likely to stabilize next week.

The clenbuterol poisoning incident in Shanghai has caused a violent response across the country, CCTV and many other ** have reported it, and the Ministry of Agriculture has also issued a notice. It is expected to have a certain negative impact on pork consumption. The current pig price is basically no space, and the volume of slaughtered pigs purchased by major manufacturers is expected to begin to decline before the National Day.

Therefore, pig prices may stabilize next week. At this time, if you do pig business, it's a hair!

Pig prices are likely to stabilize next week.

The number of fertile sows continues to decline, and pigs will reach a high point in 2015.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture's fixed-point monitoring data of 4,000 pig villages across the country, the pig inventory of 4,000 monitoring points in June was month-on-month and year-on-year; The number of fertile sows decreased month-on-month and decreased year-on-year. Since September last year, the number of fertile sows has been declining for 10 months, and is currently at a historically low level, and the number of live pigs will continue to tighten in the later period. Since the fourth quarter of last year, hogs have been declining.

Since the beginning of this year, the traditional consumption seasons such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival have not been able to break the **** trend. With the continuous decline of the first grade, breeding enterprises continue to be in a loss-making situation. Although the live pigs in May and July have rebounded, the pig inventory in June is slightly larger, coupled with the summer when consumption is not strong, the live pigs are expected to be tepid in the short term.

The trend of the change in the number of fertile sows is a leading indicator for judging the number of pigs slaughtered, which will affect the trend of pig prices in the future. The number of sows that can reproduce continues to decline, which will directly affect the slaughter of pigs in the second quarter of next year. It is expected that in the first half of 2015, the national pig market will be tightened, and the efficiency of pig breeding will reach a high point on the profit and loss line.

On August 8, 2012, the national average of live pigs was lower than the average price of live pigs yesterday. A large range of the country has a small **, local areas are stable, and the profitability of breeding is still in a state of loss. In addition, the company said today that it decided to further increase the regulation and control of the pig market and start a new round of frozen pork storage.

From a regional point of view, compared with yesterday, today's pig prices in Northeast China as a whole are slightly **; Hebei pig prices in North China continued to fall; Pig prices in East China are in some areas, pig prices in Shandong have rebounded slightly, and Anhui and Jiangsu have weakened; Pig prices in central China are basically stable; Pig prices in South China were mixed, with Guangdong pig prices slightly increasing and Guangxi pig prices slightening; Sichuan pig prices in southwest China are small**.

Corn and its comes climbed slightly. The average price of corn rose month-on-month and year-on-year, wheat bran rose month-on-month and year-on-year, and fat pig compound rose and rose year-on-year. The average price of soybean meal was yuan per kilogram, a new high in two and a half years.

Affected by many factors such as weak terminal consumption and ** increase, the recent pig ** is still hovering at the bottom, under the pervasive depression, many pig farmers have recently accelerated the slaughter of pigs to reduce the risk of breeding. Affected by the decline in the economic benefits of breeding, some farmers began to accelerate the elimination of sows and the sale of piglets, piglets fell rapidly, and sows were in a downturn. In addition, the inventory pressure of slaughtering enterprises is high, which makes it difficult to boost pigs.

According to the monitoring of the Sichuan pig monitoring and early warning system, the average price of live pigs in Sichuan rose in the first week of August after a slight adjustment in the fourth week of July, but the reason has yet to be confirmed; Corn and ingredients also rose slightly. The average retail prices of fat pigs, piglets, gilts and pork are ** yuan kg, yuan kg, yuan head and yuan kg respectively; Corn, wheat bran and fattening pig compound each liter kilogram; The pig feed ratio and the pig feed ratio rose and pointed, respectively. The ratio of pig food and pig feed has rebounded.

The ratio of pig food and pig feed rose month-on-month and; Year-on-year declines and each other.

This week, the retail prices of fattening pigs, piglets, gilts and pork rose month-on-month, with fattening pigs and pork rising greaterly; Month-on-month declines and, respectively. The minimum yuan kilogram of miscellaneous fat pigs at the monitoring point is Peng'an County, and the highest yuan kilogram of fat pigs above three yuan (Shehong County). This week, the average meat-pig price difference from slaughtered pigs to the market was yuan kilograms, which rebounded month-on-month and decreased year-on-year.

Hu Xinzhi, General Manager of the Strategic Planning Department of the Agricultural Bank of China:

After several rounds of pork ups and downs, pig farmers are more rational. At present, on the one hand, the increase in labor, land, feed, etc., has compressed the profit margins of pig breeding. On the other hand, in 2007, pig subsidies were issued to encourage pig breeding, which led to a large number of pork on the market.

At present, there has been no further introduction of new subsidy policies, and pig farmers are also waiting and seeing, which will delay the pig farmers' replenishment cycle this year.

In the second half of the year, although the rise in pork will be curbed due to the bottoming out of the number of pigs, the cost of feeding and the number of sows that can reproduce are still low, indicating that pig prices will still run at a high level in the second half of the year. Therefore, pig prices will remain ** in the second half of the year, but the rate of growth will slow down.

The growth cycle of pigs takes a certain amount of time, and the market turnover period also takes time, and it should not decline in the second half of the year.

It's hard to say, it shouldn't decline, and the cost of pig raising seems to be getting higher and higher.

Judging from the trend chart of pig slaughter from 2000 to the present, the pig slaughter trend in 2013 is still on the rise, but the upside is limited. And from the perspective of a 3-4 year cycle of pigs, pigs may begin to reverse in early 2014 or late 2013.

The key to the market outlook is sows, even if it has been falling very little, it is difficult to raise pig prices unless there is a big epidemic!