What do you think about the property prices in 2012? Whether it s up or down

For Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing and other cities, they are the leader, and the overall price is reduced, and for some cities that you don't know the name or the second and third tiers, it is a steady increase or simply a price increase.

According to the policy, it is to seek a decline in stability. . . And in fact, it will not fall.

Let's analyze it in 3 points:

1) A large part of the country's GDP is domestic consumption, and the largest consumption is land, housing, and these fixed properties. If the regulation is too strong, China's GDP may have negative growth, and ** cannot be chosen in this way.

2) have bought a house, loans, debts, this part of the people, the number is a large group, if the state really regulates the downward trend of housing prices, then at the same time as the GDP declines, people's income will also decrease moderately, and the unemployment rate will also increase, then the pressure will be greater... Then these indebted people are an unstable factor.

3) According to macroeconomic analysis, the best direction of regulation and control is: the decline in housing price growth is the norm, and it is accidental, after all, the rigid demand is still very large, which is beyond doubt. On the one hand, try to come up with some regulation and control policies according to the people's feelings, so as to meet the people psychologically, on the other hand, ** is also trying to increase national income, that is, the growth rate of people's income is greater than the growth rate of housing prices, so that a slower regulation is the best plan.

At present, gradually making housing prices more reasonable, about 10 years from now, people's incomes will be 6 10 times more than now, and housing prices will increase by about 3 times.

In fact, it is still the best, but the country seeks stability. Housing prices in China have risen for at least five years.

A little bit about the reason: real estate is one of the troika of China's economy, and it never wants a bubble to burst.

The first-tier cities will not be ** anymore, the country does not allow the first-tier cities to rise (and then rise is definitely a slap in the face of the country) The second and third tier cities are currently the main focus of the country from the first-tier cities to the second and third tier cities, with the market inertia, I think it should remain a small **. Cities below the fourth tier, especially those with characteristics such as eastern coastal cities or residential cities, will rise, and the fourth-tier cities and countries have no time to take care of it now, and real estate developers are seizing this opportunity to stake their land in various places.

According to the country's air adjustment strength, it should be stable and falling

According to the current policy of our country and the development of the local urban economy, it is unlikely that housing prices will fall back to the level of 2008, for the following reasons:

First, the current development of various cities.

The real estate industry still accounts for a large proportion of a city's GDP, most of the city's development still needs real estate to support, and the real estate industry has driven a lot of other industrial chains, such as: steel bars, stones, aluminum, wood, employment, cement, etc., plus China's environmental protection supervision in recent years, resulting in the cost of some enterprises to increase, such as: cement cost is about 30% on the basis of the original cost, steel bar is about 20% on the basis of the original cost, The most important thing is that the cost of land acquisition by developers is also **, a variety of factors cause housing prices will not be **, and then there is a process of transformation of urban development, in the process of transformation, it is necessary for real estate to do a transitional time period, in this transitional time period, China has carried out macro-control, and local cities have also taken certain measures.

Second: Although there is a surplus of houses in the real estate industry at present, there are also some people who speculate in real estate, and this phenomenon will be effectively controlled after the adjustment of China's policy.

Whether it is to increase the mortgage interest rate or to limit the purchase and other measures, are some very effective measures, such as some cities in Shenzhen, now to the Internet and high-tech transfer, but it takes a certain amount of time, but Shenzhen is a young city, the introduction of talents, the introduction of talents, the need for housing, but a city of land is limited, resulting in housing prices, but the housing price will not be too large, will be relatively stable, will not happen five years ago, The crazy price increase pattern of ten years ago.

Third: that is, the original house that just needs to be purchased needs to be replaced.

Replacement means that the house that was originally bought is only suitable for the development or family needs at that time and the property is purchased, or the supporting implementation around the property purchased at that time does not meet the requirements of their current residence, and they feel that the comfort of living is not satisfied and they want to replace or buy. In addition, the time for some houses to be repaired has reached and needs to be repaired or demolished, so these people need to buy the property again.

To sum it up:Whether it is from the employment or from the current development needs of our country, or our country's transformation and other aspects of the comprehensive point of view, real estate is not falling, will continue to be stable, a variety of factors cause the cost of housing prices, after all, real estate involved in the industrial chain is wider, the living standards of residents continue to improve, their own living environment is also constantly improving, real estate is also a major driving force for domestic demand. By any measure, house prices will not fall.

Personally, I don't think it can go back to the level of 2008, because there is a cost stuck there, and now the ** of many things has risen, so the cost of the house is also high, and the state will not return to that period again.

I don't think it's possible at all, because there was a global crisis in '08 so housing prices were cheap, and now it can't be that situation.

I don't think it's possible, because house prices are currently growing slowly, and it's basically impossible**.

There is a downward trend but it is not optimistic, and small and medium-sized cities will not decline.

Housing prices: Since 2009, China's housing prices have skyrocketed, and after 2 years, housing prices have reached a high level. In 2011, prices intensified, national regulation and control were strengthened, and the rise was controlled at the end of 2011, and even fell slightly. In the blink of an eye, what will house prices look like in 2012?

1 Mortgage interest rates are rising. However, it is difficult to block the need to buy a house, in the case of negative real interest rates, the market is floating, the tradition of Chinese buying real estate when they have money, more than 80 trillion domestic and foreign currency deposits and travel funds enter, so that the desire to buy fixed assets (land and real estate) has become a realistic guarantee, the urbanization process has made a large number of rural people into the city, nearly 7 million students have created new jobs, and formed a rigid demand for real estate.

2 The tight monetary policy of raising the reserve requirement ratio has greatly reduced the loans of commercial financial institutions, but they can bypass the policy and raise funds through the development of a large number of wealth management products, which greatly reduces the policy.

Under a series of national control measures, housing prices are in a state of consolidation after squeezing out some of the "too fast" part of the water: real estate developers enter the "winter" and wait for spring, and the local government is avoiding the limelight of state regulation. After the limelight (loosening of regulatory policies), when spring comes, housing prices will rise, and compared with the previous wheel, they will rise more rationally, and they will not rise so crazy.

Depending on your own needs, there is no market that only goes up and down, but there is never a minimum point, and you can make a move when it's time to make a move.

It doesn't look like the situation can fall, and now some of the housing prices in the county are more expensive than those in the provincial capital. And the difference between the wages in the county and the wages in the provincial capital is double or more, and now the provincial capital can't come down, and the housing prices in the county are still rising.

Housing prices are like a wave on the tide of prices.

It has been temporarily suppressed by the policy, and once the policy is loosened, it will rise.

I think there will be a big drop in house prices in 2012 (say 30%), and then enter a period of consolidation, and during this period house prices will be slow**, this process may take several years or even more than ten years.

No, no matter how unreasonable the price is, ** will not let the house price drop sharply, and it will not be able to fill this vacancy.

In my own opinion, the rising prices have not fallen, and it is good to keep them as they are and no longer **!!

Housing prices in the suburbs are the same as those in the city center, that is, the housing prices in the city center fall and the housing prices in the suburbs rise, and the national housing price trend is rising.

As long as taxes are raised, interest is added, and the package rises, it will definitely rise slowly in 10 years.

The result of the current debate is: first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will not fall; Third- and fourth-tier cities are dangerous. But what's even more dangerous is that many celebrities speak from the side of certain interests; Real estate plays a pivotal role in the national economy, solving the economic transformation, young people have a place to live, accelerating the urbanization process and narrowing the gap between the rich and the greedy to a certain extent, the result will be the economic overcapacity crisis, the local debt crisis, and the serious slowdown of economic development; Once the house price falls, it has nothing to do with the cost, but with the relationship between supply and demand;

Many celebrities can't help but show their talents, and I think the leading market economy still depends on the direction of policy.

I think the overall economic danger of printing money, not printing money real estate industry is also dangerous, a large number of speculative vacancies will lead to a certain **, ** degree is not accurate, according to the size of the city flow in and out of the population specific analysis.

In terms of economy, I am a layman, but it is impossible for housing prices to rise above the overall level of prices, and no one will overturn them, and at the same time, it will be dangerous for prices to be too fast, and I haven't thought about inflation, and there may be a way to solve it.

The post of buying a house says that it is going to fall, the post of selling a house says that it is going to rise, the real estate is often priceless and there is no market, all kinds of speculation, the people are naturally in the fog and do not dare to make a move, the real estate bubble, I don't know when the bubble will be washed away.

Counting on the ZF policy, there is only an increase and no fall.

You must know that the only ** time is the 08 financial crisis, which has nothing to do with ZF.

The economic situation in 13 years is not optimistic, so it is not good**.

It will not fall, and the price increase will not be very large.

So many real estate agents are driving up house prices!! Real estate is in demand for all kinds of institutions!! China's real estate plummets, China's economy is finished!!

Definitely not going to fall!! The daily salary of good construction workers is 400, how can housing prices be reduced??? House prices can't go down!!

It's time to buy it, buy it now! More and more expensive!

It will definitely fall, when the vast majority of people have houses, when foreign capital is withdrawing, when civil servants sell a large number of houses, when a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are closed, when the income of ordinary people decreases, when unemployment increases, why should housing prices be higher?

。, I think the rate of housing prices will slow down, and the number of loans to buy houses has increased in the last 10 years. Some housing demand is released in advance, but in the long run, house prices will still rise.

The overall house price will not fall, and the specific real estate should be judged with reference to many objective factors.

Before 2015, the rise was certain. The reason is that you can read more books and use your brain to analyze more. After that, I don't know. I estimate but at least it is stable, my personal analysis will not be down. I don't know after 2020... Take the idea yourself.

It's hard to say, look at the policy regulation of **, I don't think it should be.

Comprehensive embodiment of all aspects, the possibility of a decline is not large, even if it is a decrease, the amplitude will be like that.

One thing should remain the same, that is, it will not rise, which is also the result of state regulation.

Removing the root cause of housing prices, housing prices are actually buyers who are too selfish, thinking about themselves, worried that if they don't buy, others will definitely buy, and if they don't buy, the house price will be higher in the future. The battle between house prices** and home buyers is absolutely inseparable. Developers are smart and they always know how to play psychological tactics with home buyers, which is an important reason why they dare to stick to high housing prices.

There is no price reduction, after the national policy came out, since November 2011, a new opening community has risen by 1000 per square meter, and the ordinary people can't stand it at all, but most of them are not obvious, they are already at a high level. Kaifeng this kind of third-tier small cities are around 5000, simply can not accept, college graduates after the entry of stable in Kaifeng is 2400 this look, very good already, in the face of 5000 housing prices, you let us young people how embarrassed!

The price will be reduced in August, and it is estimated that Yinchuan will be about 2,400 yuan.

Looking back on this topic again, I suddenly remembered the Hong Kong property market crash in 1997. I have the impression that the cheapest ping at that time was only 7,000 to 8,000 Hong Kong dollars. Specifically is it not this number.

I can't remember it for a long time.

But what impressed me was everyone's panic. distrust of **, as well as the faint despair of the people for the future economy.

This time, the housing transactions in the mainland have shrunk, and the resulting housing ** has been appropriately adjusted. In fact, it is due to many reasons. It's still very difficult to discuss here.

In my opinion. The main reasons for this are as follows:

1 The state attaches great importance to the problems of substantial growth in real estate transactions** and blind investment, and has introduced a series of policy measures to curb and punish them.

2 As a result of the many calamities in the country in the past two years. While punishing real estate, raising the reserve ratio and credit interest rate has greatly curbed the rigidity of home buyers to a certain extent. It has caused great trouble to some small and medium-sized developers.

All of them are developed with their own funds, and the pressure is obviously too great. Banks do not lend to certain small and medium-sized developers. I can't even eat enough.

3 In European countries, especially those led by the United States and the United Kingdom, the precursors of the economic crisis caused by subprime mortgages, the collapse of some private banks, and the decline of the overall economy have brought about the impact of the worldwide financial crisis.

4 The lack of confidence in the people due to the sharp rise in prices this year.

In fact, the so-called housing price problem. In my opinion. The main thing is economic. It is not a problem of the uniformity of housing prices.

Like upstairs. In fact, house prices are not everywhere**. Some of the gains are modest.

Businesses with profit margins of around 20%. Especially small developers in third- and fourth-tier cities. They still live a nourishing life.

After all. The financial crisis is too far away from them. The rigid demand for housing is still there.

Having said that. But it was as if he hadn't said anything. There are too many exclamations. To sum up. It's a socio-economic issue. It's not a matter of the price itself.

There is no economy, there is no demand. Naturally, any business will have its ups and downs. This is the truth that all sects will not deviate from it