Why has soybean meal risen so violently recently?

There is a continuous fall, and it should rise and fall normally, and there are ups and downs, otherwise,

The simplest thing is that the inventory in the spot is tight, and the supply exceeds demand, so it drives the **strong**.

It is still the relationship between supply and demand, and the recent hype factor is the dry weather in South America, which will affect the future soybean harvest.

There are 7 main reasons for the large amount of soybean meal.

First, the soybean stocks in the United States and Brazil have decreased sharply, and the increase in soybeans has pushed up soybean meal. This is very critical, even if there is a situation of soybean meal expansion, soybean meal still continues to rise, the key is the cost of the center of the upward movement. In addition, the rise in import costs is not only reflected in the cost of soybeans, but also in the cost of transportation**.

Second, it is the recovery and growth of breeding capacity, which has increased the demand for soybean meal for feed. In 2020, the national feed output increased by about 10% year-on-year. Domestic soybean demand has grown steadily, and domestic soybean imports exceeded 100 million tons in 2020, a record high.

Third, with the rise in oil prices, soybean oil crushing profits are high, and soybean crushing in the United States has increased significantly, consuming soybean stocks and increasing soybean **.

Fourth, the planting end first encountered the epidemic (such as the planting season ** is lower than the cost), and then the climatic factors (such as the drought in South America, the impact of La Niña on Argentina, etc.), etc., and the growth of output is not as expected.

Fifth, it is the instability factor of the main producing countries, such as the strike in Argentina, which has affected exports, and if labor wages are raised, the related costs will also rise. Overall, the cost of imports is moving upward.

Sixth, from the perspective of variety price comparison, the improvement of corn ** also drives soybean meal. The combination substitution of soybean meal and corn in the feed makes the first has a strong linkage. Since the second half of the year, corn, soybeans and soybean meal** have continued to rise sharply.

Since the epidemic, many countries around the world have banned grain exports, which has aggravated the concerns about food circulation, coupled with the continuous recovery of demand after the epidemic, the overall commodity market has been greatly varied, and some have even reached a record high.

Seventh, the epidemic situation has been repeated, the circulation is not smooth, the downstream of breeding is worried about the supply of soybean meal, and the demand for stocking has increased.

Extended Information: **Key features.

1. The terms of the contract such as commodity variety, trading unit, contract month, margin, quantity, quality, grade, delivery time, delivery location are all established and standardized, and the only variable is **. The standard of the contract is usually designed by the exchange and approved by the national regulator for listing.

2. The contract is traded under the organization of the exchange and has legal effect, and the contract is generated through open bidding in the trading hall of the exchange; Most foreign countries use open bidding, while China uses computer transactions.

When it comes to soybean meal, I believe that many people may be relatively unfamiliar with this thing, but if you mention pig feed, everyone is more familiar with it, this soybean meal is the most important component of pig feed, so it's **directly determines the ** pig feed, before the ** soybean meal ** are relatively stable, this time it has a long-lost rise, but also drove the market value of soybean meal to rise, this time the reason is mainly affected by the weather, the main force of soybean production in Argentina because of the drought soybean production plummeted, In addition, the United States may also be affected by the weather, so the price of soybean meal has begun to rise, and there may be a situation where soybean meal ** is relatively high before.

First, the reason behind the long-awaited surge in soybean meal is first of all because Argentina, the main soybean producing country, has been severely affected.

We all know that China is a big country that produces food, but the crops produced in China are mainly rice, wheat and corn, and soybeans are produced more in Argentina, the United States and other countries.

Second, the second is that the United States may also be affected by La Niña weather, resulting in a decline in its soybean production.

Another reason for soybean meal is that according to the detection of the Meteorological Bureau, the United States may be affected by La Niña weather, which will make the local area in a state of high temperature, and the soybean water shortage will naturally reduce the yield, because it may be like this, so the soybean meal is a lot.

Third, the cost of soybean meal is related to whether the cost of many industries increases, and some aquatic products and livestock may be in the second half of the year.

Soybean meal is not only an important raw material for the production of pig feed, but also a raw material for some aquatic products and livestock food, so it is the first time, and it may be the first half of the year.

The reason behind the long-awaited surge in soybean meal is mainly due to the simple La Niña gas speculation from Argentina in South America. In addition, the soybean production in the United States has also decreased, which has led to the **** of soybeans, so the soybean meal has risen sharply for a long time.

U.S. soybean yield expectations lowered The market digested the bulls in advance, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to fall, the soybean procurement cost rose, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to decline.

The reason for the launch of the first year at the beginning of this year is also the influence of weather factors.

<> the chart, we can see that in May every year, June is the month with the highest probability, especially June, which is not only the largest probability, but also the largest in the whole year. As for the main reason for these two months, it may be that it is just in the season when soybeans have just been planted, and factors such as weather have become the object of capital operation.

Then, November is the month with the highest probability, and it is also the month with the largest average range in the whole year, as for the reason or because October is the soybean harvest season, then the short-term supply side of soybeans in November will bring certain pressure, resulting in a weak pattern.

In addition to the above special months, the other months are relatively not too special, and the probability of ups and downs is about the same. As for the reasons for the high probability of these special months, the author is not necessarily completely correct, you can also think about it, and welcome to communicate with me.

Overall: 1The probability of soybean meal in May and June is the largest, especially in June, which is not only the largest probability, but also the largest in the whole year.

2.November for soybean meal is the month with the highest probability, and it is also the month with the largest average of the year.

3.Soybean meal is an agricultural and sideline product, and there is a very obvious seasonal pattern.

4.The month with the highest probability of vertical slippage or the month with the highest probability does not mean that this month is the most or lowest price of the year, but can only be said to be the probability of the rise and fall of this month, which needs to be explained. Of course, in a year, which month is often prone to the highest and low prices is also the future statistical direction and thinking.

By understanding the seasonal law of soybean meal, I hope to bring reference to your production and processing, of course, we must also know that these special months are also a probability, and the data is limited, not entirely correct, can only be used as your reference. As long as it can be useful to you is the author's greatest gratification, thank you for your support, click on the top left (hold the fiber bucket author: take refuge in the Buddha and take refuge in the monk according to the law) to follow me, if you have any questions, you can also chat with me privately, there will be more ** regular articles to share later, thank you!

Recently, the domestic soybean meal market has continued, mainly due to the fact that the domestic soybean meal inventory is at a low level, which makes the amount of soybean meal insufficient, and the U.S. soybean market has been maintained at 1000 cents recently, which in turn supports the upward trend of the domestic soybean meal market. However, Li Fangyu, an analyst at China Grain and Oil Information Network, believes that although domestic soybean meal is still in a strong period in the short term, soybean meal will appear in mid-to-late December, for the following reasons:

The recent abundant rainfall in Brazil's soybean producing areas is conducive to the growth of Brazilian soybeans, and it is expected that the USDA report in December will increase Brazil's soybean production, making the U.S. soybean ** downward. In addition, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on the US dollar with a high probability on December 12-13, and the appreciation of the US dollar will drag down the global commodity futures price, and the domestic Changkai soybean meal market will follow the general environment. In addition, in late December, the seasonal stocking of feed mills has basically come to an end, and the spot demand for soybean meal in oil mills will weaken in the later period, coupled with the operating rate of oil mills has remained high, which will increase the domestic soybean meal inventory, which in turn will drag down the soybean meal market.

Soybean meal is a kind of soybean by-product, and according to different extraction methods, it can also be divided into one-soaked soybean meal and two-soaked eggplant soybean meal. The process and requirements for making soybean meal are relatively strict, if the temperature is too high, the nutritional value will be affected, and if the temperature is too low, the shelf life will be reduced. Soybean meal is decomposed and fermented by probiotics to produce active peptides, so it has the effect of easy absorption and fast digestion.

Soybean meal is a by-product made after soybean oil is extracted, and according to different extraction methods, it can also be divided into soybean meal and soybean meal. Among them, after extracting soybean oil by extraction method, the by-product made of the remaining is called bending Wang Yiyi soaked soybean meal, and the second soaked soybean meal is made after the oil is extracted first.

In fact, the way, process and requirements of making soybean meal are relatively strict, because the temperature of processing soybean meal is very important, and the temperature is too high to affect the quality of protein, so the nutritional value of soybean meal mainly lies in the processing technology. If the temperature is too low during processing, the moisture content of soybean meal will increase, which will also affect the shelf life of soybean meal.

Because soybean meal is decomposed and fermented by probiotics, a large number of active peptides with active functions are produced, which can help gastrointestinal peristalsis, and have the effect of easy absorption and fast digestion. At the same time, soybean meal is rich in a variety of nutrients, including lactic acid, vitamins and amino acids, which can speed up human metabolism.