When will the Chinese population grow negatively 5

According to demographers**, the Chinese population will move to zero and negative growth after peaking at 1.516 billion around 2030-2035. This means that China's heavy population burden, which has been burdened for several centuries, will finally be reduced for the first time, and it will have an immeasurable and huge positive impact on China's future social and economic development.

For the world, the first time that the Chinese population, which accounts for one-fifth of the population, will change from positive to negative growth is an unprecedented epoch-making event.

Demographers have pointed out that negative population growth has already occurred in Beijing, Shanghai, and other large cities, and that the downward trend of the natural growth rate of the Chinese population in the next 40 to 50 years will be a monotonous and irreversible process.

Due to the huge population base of Chinese and the inertia of population growth, it is expected that the average annual net increase in population will still be more than 10 million in the next ten years, and it is planned to control the population within 1.4 billion by 2010, and it will probably not be until the total population reaches a peak of 1.6 billion in the thirties of the 21st century before zero population growth can be achieved, and it will begin to decline slowly in 2035.

Bits: 10,000. year, Births, Deaths, Increase, Total population, Ageing rate (%)

Now China is aging, experts say, by the time it reaches 1.6 billion, the ecological balance.

One to live and one to die.

The benefits of negative population growth in Chinese are:

First, the decline in population growth can force industrial upgrading. Due to the slow decline in population growth, the number of labor force will slowly decline, labor efficiency will also slowly decline, in order to ensure the competitiveness of enterprises or industries, enterprises must increase research and development, with technical efficiency to replace the decline in labor efficiency. Looking at the developed countries in Europe and the United States, the population growth is slow, but the technological level of the industry is constantly improving.

Second, as population growth declines, the supply of labor in the market will gradually decrease, and the competitive pressure in the labor market will gradually decline. It is no longer feasible for enterprises to rely on cheap labor to make profits and rely on the 996 work system, and if enterprises want to retain employees, they must increase labor salaries, otherwise the labor force can fire the boss and leave at any time.

Third, the state's social security system will also be gradually improved, and the rights and interests of all kinds of workers will be truly guaranteed.

Fourth, population growth will decline, and at the same time the level of urbanization will continue to increase, a large number of essential commodities such as meat, poultry, eggs and household appliances will become relatively cheaper, fruits and vegetables such as cherries and spinach will be free, and the quality of products will be further improved.

Problems:

In addition to the population of the northeast region, the population of the central region is also experiencing negative growth. According to the 2021 population data that has been released so far, among the six central provinces, only Hubei and Anhui have seen an increase in their permanent population, and the population of the remaining four provinces is all decreasing.

According to this trend, the population of the central part of the country will also face great pressure in the future. This is because from a regional point of view, the economic development of the east and the south is very good, and they can naturally attract a large number of people, while the west has a huge policy advantage and can also attract a large number of people, although the degree of economic development is average.

The inflection point of negative population growth is currently controversial, and it is generally believed that it will arrive in 2021 at the earliest and 2030 at the latest. At present, there are as many as four or five versions of the judgment of negative growth of the Chinese population.

In 2010, the National Bureau of Statistics did not report the number of births and deaths, but only 6.26 million more than the previous year. Since 2005, the number of deaths has increased by an average of 230,000 per year, so assuming 9.66 million deaths in 2010, there should be 15.92 million births in 2010.

Data Survey: On October 26, 2012, the China Development Research Association released the research report "Changes in Chinese's Population Situation and Population Policy Adjustment". According to the report, China has entered a stage of low birth rate and low death rate since 2012, and the demographic dividend period has ended.

According to the report, it is directly extrapolated from the data of the sixth population census.

China's total fertility rate is that the current composite birth rate should be below to account for underreporting of births. The study believes that the growth rate of the Chinese population in 2012 was already very slow, and if the low fertility level continues, the Chinese population will turn negative in 2027.

As of April 2021, China's population is still growing, and the Chinese population.

It will reach a peak of 100 million in 2029, enter a sustained negative growth from 2030, and shrink to the scale of 1996 in 2065. If the total fertility rate.

has been maintained at a level of negative population growth.

It will appear in advance to around 2027.

It is necessary to prepare early for the "negative population growth". Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's population development has undergone important turning points, and in the face of major trend changes, we must take measures to actively and effectively respond to risks and challenges, and strive to achieve balanced development of the population itself.

The harm of negative growth

As China's population development enters a stage of deep transformation, some problems and challenges that cannot be ignored continue to emerge. In recent years, China's working-age population has continued to decrease, the elderly population has accelerated and the average life expectancy of the population has accelerated.

Keep improving. Accompanied by an increasing aging population.

The burden of old-age security in China continues to increase, and a large number of labor forces have released the development energy and demographic dividend stimulated.

and the constant erosion or even disappearance of spending power.

With the continuation of aging and low fertility of the population, China will inevitably usher in an era of negative population growth, which will inevitably bring more unfortunate consequences. Long-term negative population growth will lead to a high degree of social aging and population decline, which in turn will lead to many serious social and economic problems.

The above content reference: People's Daily Online - Prepare early for "negative population growth".

Don't be too optimistic, the number of people born in 2021 will be less than in 2020, and the negative population growth may be this year.

In 2020, 12 million were born and nearly 10 million died, and in 2021, it is estimated that there will be less than 10 million oaks, and the deaths will exceed 10 million, officially starting to refer to the negative population growth.

In 2022, China's blind and poor population began to show negative growth.

At the end of 2022, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and military personnel on active duty, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners residing in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) was 141175 00,000, a decrease of 850,000 from the end of 2021. Specifically, the number of births in 2022 will be 9.56 million, and the birth rate will be; The number of deaths was 10.41 million, and the mortality rate of the population was; The natural population growth rate is:

In terms of age composition, the working-age population aged 16-59 is 875.56 million, accounting for the proportion of the national population; The population aged 60 and over is 280.04 million, accounting for the national population, of which 209.78 million are aged 65 and above, accounting for the national population. This is also the first time that China's population has experienced negative growth since 1962 (that is, in the past 61 years).

Reasons for negative population growth

Negative population growth is the result of economic and social development reaching a certain stage, and some regions and countries in the world are in a state of negative population growth. The natural growth of the population is determined by the common consideration of the birth rate and the mortality rate, and the factors affecting the birth rate and the death rate of the population are multifaceted, such as the economy, education level, social welfare, policy, social and other factors.

From the perspective of population structure itself, there are two reasons for the change in the population of a region: natural growth and mechanical growth. Natural growth is determined by the birth and death rates of the population, and mechanical growth is the change in the number of people in a country or region due to the inflow and emigration of people over a certain period of time (usually one year).

In the context of the new era, the key factor leading to the negative population growth in China is the decline in the birth rate, that is, the decrease in the number of new births, however, the decline in the number of births is the result of the comprehensive impact of multiple factors.

Germany was the first country to experience negative population growth since 1950 and has been negative since 1973. Hungary has experienced the longest period of negative population growth, from 1980 to 2021, with the total population shrinking by nearly 10% in more than 40 years. Russia experienced negative population growth in 1994, lasted until 2007, and resumed positive population growth from 2008 to 2019, and then started a new round of negative population growth in 2020. Since 2010, Japan's total population has decreased by about 3% in more than a decade. South Korea's population growth began to decline in early 2020, and the total fertility rate (how many children an average woman has in her lifetime) was as low as 2021.

According to Tao Tao, compared with the three European countries (Germany, Hungary and Russia), the working-age population of the three East Asian countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) has declined more in the process of negative population growth. The proportion of working-age population aged 15-64 in the three European countries has always been higher than that of China, Japan and South Korea during the period of negative population growth, and has remained at a level of more than 50%. Before entering the negative population growth, China and South Korea had the highest proportion of working-age population (15-64 years old) among the seven countries, nearly 70%, while the other countries were around 65%, and by the end of this century, the proportion of working-age population in the three East Asian countries will stabilize at a lower level, and South Korea will have the lowest proportion of working-age population at only about 46%.

Zheng Zhenzhen introduced that the decline in population growth is accompanied by changes in the age structure of the population. Looking back at the global demographic changes since the 21st century, the population aged 10-20 has been decreasing, and the elderly population over 65 years old has grown at the fastest rate. As fertility rates fall and older people live longer, the importance of the new population to population growth is gradually giving way to the elderly population, with the number of people aged 65 and over surpassing the number of children under 5 for the first time in history in 2018.

Zheng Zhenzhen said that from 1960 to 2011, the world's population growth was mainly in Asia, mainly due to the growth of young population; The future population growth will be mainly in Africa, and the global population growth will be dominated by the elderly. Populations are aging faster in developing countries than in developed countries, as fertility declines in large developing countries such as China and India, which means that more of the world's older people live in developing regions.

In the face of negative population growth, countries have also taken a variety of measures to deal with it. Tao Tao introduced that encouraging childbirth is one of the basic strategies of countries to cope with negative population growth. First, countries with negative population growth will help women and families achieve their ideal number of children, spacing, and timing by providing them with health care services.

Second, countries are also focusing on the balance between family and work, and promoting gender equality in the field of employment through the implementation of maternity leave systems, the introduction of flexible working systems, and the construction of childcare institutions.

Negative population growth means that the demographic dividend disappears, the birth rate is low, and the number of service personnel in the industry may decline.

Negative population growth represents a relatively low birth rate, it is true that in recent years, because the number of people in our country is indeed large, so it has been controlling eugenics, so the number of newborns has decreased, and the population has indeed been controlled, but with the advent of an aging society and the control of the population in recent years, it has begun to advocate the birth of a second child and encourage the birth of a second child.

Although the two-child policy in many areas is not bad, it also "reduces the burden" on parentsBut the cost of raising a child is too high, which leads to the fact that one child does not want to have a second child, which has caused that according to the current situation, there may be a fault in the labor force, because the number of the older generation after retirement is not enough to replace the position of the older generation.

In this case, there will be problems, the first is that the current human value is not high, because there are too many people, you don't do it and there are other people to do, but in the future, there will be a shortage of people who want to recruit people but no one, the salary will definitely be **, but the number of personnel will definitely be less, just like the current express delivery, the delivery is very fast, because there are very many riders, but there are fewer riders in the future, and the timeliness of distribution may increase accordingly.

Again, people's wages are higherIt is indeed very good for us personally, but for some foreign-funded enterprises, they may want to continue to invest in a country with low labor costs, and maybe we will have fewer jobs and fewer national investment projects.

Now housing prices have been rising in a straight line, and house prices in many areas may not be able to buy a set for a lifetime, which is the case now, but in a few years, the house may usher in a wave of price reductions, because now a family of three generations generally has a house, and now young people may grow up to have several housesAt that time, the house is not just needed for many people, so the ** will naturally decline, and the real estate industry may usher in a wave of winter, the house may be rotten on the street, and it will not be able to live.

Similarly, with the decline in the number of population, the entire consumption will also decrease, many industries will be affected, the industry for the elderly will usher in a wave of peak, but this peak period will also be many, some of the maternal and infant industry will usher in a wave of winter, the decline in the birth rate, sales will inevitably be affected, so the policy of encouraging childbirth mentioned at the beginning will definitely speed up the implementation, from the cost of raising babies to the time of adults, will be adjusted, so as to change the current decline in the birth rate, but no matter what, The country will have corresponding adjustments, and it is definitely the most correct to follow the national policy.