What is the current situation of hydropower generation in China and the economic advantages of hydro

Hydropower should be one of the cleanest of all energy sources because it does not produce waste like thermal power or nuclear power (nuclear power has less waste than thermal power, but both are also indispensable). )

It can be compared with hydropower, such as photovoltaic and wind power, but they all have a common disadvantage, that is, geographical limitations. The photovoltaic power is still very small and cannot be compared with other forms of power stations.

Another problem with hydropower is that high-power hydropower has an impact on the ecological environment, although it can ...... flood control, irrigation and so onDamage to the environment, a concept that was not introduced until the end of the last century, is that the construction of dams can lead to the destruction and even extinction of aquatic life.

In addition, it also has an impact on the climate, as when the dam is erected, the water surface will inevitably increase, and the amount of water evaporating in the vicinity will increase, forming an air wall over the water and blocking the flow of air. For example, in the Three Gorges Dam, the air wall created by the rising air flow may lead to the blockage of the north-south air flow, making the area extremely hot and humid, which is a fatal blow to some sensitive organisms. Of course, the temperature in Chongqing has risen in recent years, and some experts point out that the construction of the Three Gorges Dam is also an important factor.

ps: As early as before the dam was built, there were experts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences who denied the impact of the dam on the climate, but at that time it was the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, and many representatives were attracted by the "gimmick" of the dam to send electricity from the west to the east, and did not consider the environmental factor too much, but also, hydropower does not discharge waste, so most people will ignore the environmental impact of hydropower after completion.

In addition, from an energy point of view, hydropower is not sustainable because it needs to store water to generate electricity, and can only be used for peak shaving, and it is still necessary to rely on thermal power and nuclear power and other energy sources to bear the base load, which is why thermal power cannot be replaced by hydropower.

Another point is that the construction of dams will lead to sediment accumulation in the river, which will require regular and costly dredging. This is also a kind of damage to the environment.

Therefore, the construction of hydropower must take these negative factors into account and make a "cost-benefit" analysis, and only when the "benefit" is greater than the "cost" should it be ......In fact, many things need to be considered in this way, although we live in a socialist society.

Forward-looking data shows that in recent years, the gross profit margin of nuclear power and hydropower is relatively high among the main power generation methods in China. Specifically, in 2012, the gross profit margin of hydropower in China was the highest, which was; followed by wind power generation, with a gross profit margin; The gross profit margin of nuclear power is only that of thermal power, which is relatively low.

The profitability of hydropower in China has a certain competitive advantage compared with other power generation methods, and there is still market space for hydropower development, and the "12th Five-Year Plan" and "13th Five-Year Plan" are the peak periods for China's large hydropower production.

Qianzhan Network China Hydropower Industry Related Industry Market Prospect and Prospect ** Analysis Report pointed out.

It is preliminarily estimated that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the investment demand for hydropower construction will be about 800 billion yuan, of which about 620 billion yuan will be for large and medium-sized hydropower, about 120 billion yuan for small hydropower, and about 60 billion yuan for pumped storage power stations.

According to the capital ratio of 20%, the capital demand during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is 160 billion yuan, and the financing is 640 billion yuan. Sichuan Province and Yunnan Province in the west are key areas for hydropower construction, with investment in hydropower construction reaching 330 billion yuan and 340 billion yuan respectively.

The main advantage of hydroelectric power is that the cost of fuel can be excluded. The cost of operating a hydropower plant is virtually unaffected by fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal. Since hydropower does not require fuel, fuel is not important for such power plants.

Hydroelectric power stations have a longer economic lifespan than fuel-burning power plants, and there are a number of hydroelectric power stations in the world that were built 50,100 years ago that are still in operation. Since hydroelectric power stations are mostly self-operated and require fewer workers under normal operating conditions, the cost of operating labor for such power stations is often low, and if hydroelectric power stations are built on such foundations, it is possible to reduce the cost of dam construction relatively and add useful dividends to the operating expenses of the dam. Calculations show that China's Three Gorges Dam will be able to recoup the investment in dam construction after 5 to 8 years of power generation.

Take 2016 as an example: by the end of 2016, China's installed power generation capacity reached 100 million kilowatts, of which 100 million kilowatts were coal-fired power; The power generation capacity reaches trillions of kilowatt hours, of which coal-fired power generation is about one trillion kilowatt hours, accounting for the total power generation.

On September 19, 2017, the China Electricity Council released the China Coal Power Clean Development Report in Beijing. The report also pointed out that green and low-carbon is the general trend of energy development, non-fossil energy will gradually replace fossil energy, and the energy efficiency level and pollutant control level of fossil energy will continue to improve.

Hydropower in China has great potential.

It is estimated that the proportion of non-fossil energy in China's energy consumption will increase from 12% in 2015 to 20% in 2030, and the coal consumption of coal-fired power generation units will drop from 318 grams and kilowatt-hours in 2015 to less than 310 grams and kilometers in 2020.

For China's future power development, a vice president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering once said, "In 2017, the proportion of non-fossil electricity in China will reach 35% by 2020, 48% by 2030, and 78% by 2050." ”

A deputy director of the National Energy Research Institute believes that "in 2050, wind power will account for 50% of the electricity consumption of the whole society, solar energy will account for 23%, hydropower will account for 12%, and nuclear power and thermal power will each account for 6%. "There is a big gap between different research institutions and groups on China's emission reduction roadmap.

The above content reference: China Hydropower Engineering Society - Expert: The proportion of hydropower generation can exceed 20% in 2050

China's thermal power generation in 2008 was more than 75%, and the data for '09 is not available for the time being, and the estimate is not as low as that.

According to the 2010 electricity operation situation released by the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China, the national power generation in 2010 was 4,141.3 billion kWh, an increase of 7 percentage points over the previous year. Among them, thermal power was 3,325.3 billion kWh, an increase and a share; hydropower 662.2 billion kWh, up , share; nuclear power 73.4 billion kWh, growth, proportion; wind power 43 billion kWh, growth, proportion; The other 37.4 billion kWh, accounted for.

Hydropower accounts for 18% of the country's electricity generation.

The main power generation in China is thermal power and hydropower, accounting for 90% of the total power generation, of which thermal power accounts for 72%, hydropower accounts for 18%, and the remaining 10% are nuclear power 4%, wind power and solar energy, geothermal power, tidal power, and bioelectricity.

Negligible.

Although China is rich in hydropower resources, it is limited by economic and technological factors, and hydropower accounts for only about 20% of the total power generation. Worldwide, between 1980 and 1986, the share of thermal power decreased from 1980 to 1986, the share of hydropower from lead to lead, and the share of nuclear power increased from 1980 to 1986.

Thermal power generation is as high as 100 million kilowatt hours, accounting for the proportion of the country's total power generation. China's base shelter hydropower generation capacity has reached 100 million kilowatt hours, accounting for about 17% of the country's total jujube power generation.

It will develop in the direction of clean and efficientIn December 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "2019 Edition of the Guidance Catalogue for the Promotion and Application of the First (Set) Major Technical Equipment", which pointed out that the hydropower units in clean and efficient power generation equipment are rated high and the products are large-scale. It can be seen that China is vigorously promoting the development of hydropower equipment in the direction of large-scale, clean and efficient.

At present, China attaches great importance to the ecological protection in the process of hydropower development and adheres to the priority of ecology, so the energy-saving, environmental protection and high efficiency of hydropower equipment generator sets have become the development direction of power generation equipment products. As an important part of hydropower equipment, the turbine will also develop in the direction of high power and high parameters in the future, and the production and manufacturing of hydropower equipment will be more suitable for the general trend of ecological and environmental protection in the future.

In addition, with the development of information technology, the hydropower equipment industry and information technology will be further integrated in the future, the digital, networked and intelligent design, construction and management of hydropower projects will be further deepened, and the intelligent hydropower station and intelligent hydropower equipment will be further integrated and developed.

From January to April 2018, the country's power generation capacity was 1,039.1 billion kWh, of which thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power accounted for the proportions respectively. In terms of the proportion of thermal power generation over the years, the proportion of thermal power generation has decreased year by year, the proportion of hydropower, nuclear power and wind power has increased, and the proportion of thermal power generation in China's total power generation has decreased from 2010 to January and April 2018, a decrease of one percentage point, and the proportion of hydropower, nuclear power and wind power has decreased and increased by one percentage point respectively. Thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power accounted for the proportions respectively.

According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, from January to April 2018, the electricity consumption of each part of the industry is as follows:

1) The electricity consumption of the primary industry was 27.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, accounting for 1% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society;

2) The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 1,428 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6%, accounting for 68% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society;

3) The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 328 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 20%, accounting for 16% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society;

4) The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 326 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 16%, accounting for 15% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society.

China's thermal power generation accounts for a large proportion, because the cost of hydropower is mainly investment cost, and the investment cost varies greatly for different hydropower stations, which is related to the personality of the project, mainly related to the terrain and geological conditions, land acquisition and resettlement conditions, and transportation conditions.

Hydropower is characterized by a large one-time investment, and the first level of rapid growth, from 5,000 yuan per kilowatt 10 years ago to 15,000 yuan now. The operating period is very long, and the operating costs are low. Hydropower can operate for up to 50 or even 100 years, which is the longest life of any power station, which is caused by the fact that the service life of buildings is longer than that of equipment, and the cost of land acquisition for hydropower is basically equivalent to a one-time investment.

The operation and maintenance costs of hydropower are low, and the operating costs are very low. It is a long-term stable income product (related to the amount of water flow), although it sometimes fluctuates, but it is very stable in the medium and long term. Hydropower with regulation capacity is still the best power supply for peak regulation, frequency regulation and phase modulation.

Large and giant hydropower plants have a very long construction period. There are few preferential policies, and the feed-in tariff is cheap, especially for the old units, which have long passed the repayment period of principal and interest, and even had no concept of loan at that time.

Thermal power: the unit investment is small, the construction period is general, the unit can be used for a long time, and the peak regulation can be carried out, and the gas is a better peak power supply, with a short lifespan, generally a little more than 20 years, and the operating cost is high, which is closely related to the price of coal or gas. There are few preferential policies for coal-fired units.

Nuclear power: large unit investment, especially the third generation, the highest among all types of power stations, the construction period is long, the operation period is long, the unit can be used for a long time, the current main base load can not be peaked, the future may be peaked. The operating cost is much lower than that of thermal power, but significantly higher than that of hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic.

Decommissioning and reprocessing of spent fuel is extremely complex, and this cost may not be considered enough at this time. There are many preferential policies.

Photovoltaics: large unit investment, short utilization time, extreme dependence on subsidies, short lifespan, uneven module quality, low operating costs, and garbage electricity. Since last year, the state has vigorously supported it, in order not to let the entire industry fall.

Power generation is a mature industry where there are no technical issues in nature, but only costs involved.

Since thermal power in a broad sense includes many categories such as fuel oil, coal, gas, and biomass solids, we assume that thermal power here only refers to coal-fired thermal power.

China is a country with very rich coal resources, and a considerable amount of coal is of good quality. Therefore, coal-fired power generation is an obvious economic choice, even with the addition of desulfurization, denitrification and electric precipitator, the thermal power feed-in tariff in most provinces can still be controlled between yuan, so low is second only to large-scale hydropower. However, the approved electricity price of nuclear power, which has always been favored by many technical people, is yuan, which exceeds the price of thermal power in most provinces.

On the other hand, thermal power has excellent peak regulation performance, and the supply and demand of electricity need to be balanced in real time, but we need to ensure that everyone can use electricity at all times, and we can't just pull the switch and limit power. Therefore, the stability of the system can only be maintained by regulating the power generation of the power plant. As the high-voted answer said, what to do when there is no wind, cloudy weather, and no water?

The peak regulation performance of nuclear power is not very good, and it can only be regulated by thermal power. So what if you don't use thermal power? Of course, there are solutions from a technical point of view, such as super-large-scale energy storage, a large number of pumped storage power stations, and a large number of gas turbines to supplement--- but without exception, there will be huge costs and expensive electricity prices.

In order to avoid misunderstandings, I would like to mention that thermal power peak regulation is good, relative to new energy, and the best peak regulation is, of course, hydropower with reservoir areas. But water and electricity are not enough).

Electricity as the basic energy source of large-scale industrial production, if the price of electricity is expensive to death, then everything in our lives will rise sharply, and everyone will return to the pre-liberation period overnight.

So what are the benefits of replacing thermal power? First of all, maybe a little bit of pollution can be reduced--- pollution from large thermal power plants is already very small. Secondly, it can reduce a lot of carbon emissions (desulfurization, denitrification and electrostatic precipitator do not include carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide is not a pollutant, but it is a greenhouse gas), it depends on whether you believe that carbon emissions cause global climate change and threaten our survival, I personally did not study this in depth and did not comment.

Finally, coal is limited, can be used as a chemical raw material, and it is a pity to burn it in vain in the long run, and it is not considered an optimal allocation of resources.

Are we really going to pay a significant price for these benefits? Whether you want to or not, I don't want to engage in new energy anyway.

This is why thermal power still accounts for a large proportion in China: rich resources and relatively good performance make thermal power have an incomparable cost advantage in China. Since China's hydropower reserves cannot meet the country's electricity demand, thermal power will still have a very important position in the foreseeable future.