Why is the weather forecast inaccurate, and what is the reason for the inaccurate weather forecast

The main reasons for inaccurate weather forecasts are as follows:

1.Inadequate or inaccurate meteorological observations: Weather forecasting relies on accurate meteorological observations, including temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, etc. If this data is insufficient or inaccurate, it will affect the accuracy of the weather forecast.

2.Deficiencies of model algorithms: Weather forecasting often uses meteorological numerical models to ** future weather conditions. However, there may be deficiencies in the algorithms and parameter settings of these models, resulting in inaccurate forecasts.

3.Complexity of the atmospheric environment: The atmospheric environment is very complex, including the physical, chemical, and kinetic processes of the atmosphere. The details of these processes are very complex and difficult to fully understand and simulate, so they can also affect the accuracy of weather forecasts.

4.The inability of the weather itself: Weather change is a complex system that is affected by a variety of factors, such as air pressure, humidity, wind, air temperature, etc. Even with state-of-the-art meteorological science and technology, it is difficult to completely accurate** future weather changes.

5.Deficiencies of forecasting models: Weather forecasting relies on mathematical models, and these models have their own shortcomings, such as oversimplification and improper parameter settings, which can lead to errors in weather forecasting.

6.Human factor interference: Sometimes weather forecasts may also be interfered by human factors, such as large-scale industrial activities, transportation, urbanization, etc., which may have a certain impact on the meteorological environment, and then cause errors in weather forecasting.

7.Difficult to extreme weather events: Extreme weather events (such as snowstorms, heavy rains, typhoons, etc.) often put forward higher requirements for weather forecasting, because they change quickly, have a wide range of impacts, and are difficult, which can easily lead to inaccuracy.

Therefore, despite the rapid development of modern meteorological technology, there is still a certain degree of uncertainty in weather forecasting.

Reasons for inaccurate weather forecasting: In the weather, there are two main variables, namely the ground variable and the time variable, which increase the difficulty of accurate weather forecasting and cannot guarantee that the weather forecast is 100% correct. Ground variables, such as weather, are affected by surface mountains, rivers, and the various gases or pollution emitted by humans on a daily basis.

The other is the time variable, when these uncertainties are constantly superimposed, infinitely close to the correct value in the short term, and after a long time, the accuracy decay will be very powerful.

Because of the weather forecast.

It is only possible that the weather will not be completely certain that it will happen on the day, and there may be changes.

It's not inaccurate, after all, the place is so big, it is broadcast according to the general weather conditions.

Sometimes weather forecasts.

Three reasons why it is inaccurate:

1.Weather forecasting requires a large amount of meteorological observation data to support it. However, some areas are limited by topography and have few observation points, such as the ocean and the Tibetan Plateau.

2.The inherent insufficiency of observational data can affect the accuracy of weather forecasts.

3.Inaccurate instruments and instruments that need to be corrected can also affect the accuracy of forecasts.

The "accuracy" of weather forecasting, in the understanding of the masses, is different from the standard of meteorological operations. For example, it is raining in one area, but it is not raining across the road. People in areas where there is no rain may think that the forecast for "rain" is inaccurate.

However, in meteorological services, it is necessary to determine whether the forecast is allowed to have a corresponding station proportion requirement. "Multiple observation points in a large area, if the number of rainfall stations reaches a certain percentage, it is an accurate forecast in meteorological operations.

Reasons for inaccurate weather forecasting: human understanding of the mechanism of atmospheric motion is still limited, meteorological observation networks are not "negligent but not leaky", and numerical weather prediction models cannot fully simulate atmospheric evolution.

1. Human understanding of the mechanism of atmospheric motion is still limited. All kinds of weather generation and change are caused by the constant movement of the atmosphere. Due to the complexity of atmospheric motion, although with the development of science and technology, the continuous improvement of atmospheric detection methods, and the deepening of human understanding of the objective laws of atmospheric motion, scientists have not been able to truly describe the subtle structure of atmospheric motion.

2. The meteorological observation network cannot be "negligent but not leaky". Although meteorological detection has developed into a three-dimensional nuclear observation system covering ground-based, air-based and space-based, ground observation stations, upper-air observation stations, automatic weather stations, radar observation stations and meteorological satellites form an observation network that monitors atmospheric movements and changes at all times.

However, this network will be negligent in the small and medium-scale weather system, just like a big net catching small fish, which is easy to miss. In addition, there may be errors in the observation data, for example, if the wind direction and speed observations are averaged over a 2-minute observation, there may be some errors.

3. Numerical weather prediction models cannot fully simulate atmospheric evolution. The change of weather is the result of the change of the movement of the atmosphere around the earth, and the change of atmospheric movement should physically conform to some laws of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics, which can be explored in the language of mathematics and written as mathematical equations.

High-performance computers are used to turn weather forecasting problems into mathematical equations. This refers to the fact that there is no such method called numerical weather prediction, which is the core of modern weather forecasting. However, none of the current models can realistically simulate the evolution of the atmosphere, and it is only an approximation, and there are bound to be errors.

Forecasting methods

1. Empirical extrapolation method: also known as trend method, is to speculate the future position and intensity of various weather systems according to their past movement path and intensity change trend on the weather map. This method has a better effect when there is no sudden change in the movement and intensity of the weather system or the rebirth and death of the weather system. And when there are sudden changes or the birth and death of weather systems, forecasts often do not correspond to reality.

2. Similar situation method: also known as the model method, it is to find out some similar weather situations from a large number of historical weather maps and summarize them into a certain model. If the current weather situation is similar to the previous situation of a model, the forecast can be made with reference to the later evolution of the model.

Since similarity is always relative, it is impossible to be identical, so errors often occur with this method.

3. Statistical data method: also known as the correlation method, is to use historical data to count the occurrence, development and movement of various weather systems that occur in different seasons in history, obtain their average moving speed, and find forecast indicators (such as cyclone generation, typhoon turning indicators, etc.), and forecast. This method cannot be applied to examples that have not been seen in history or that move very quickly and very slowly.

Summary. The atmospheric system is a relatively complex system, and the supercomputer will deduce the temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed, and wind direction measured by ground radar, satellites and other instruments, and use mathematical methods to calculate the laws of atmospheric motion, but the earth changes every moment, and a small change will cause the result error. Everyday life also has an impact on the climate, and these uncertainties also contribute to inaccurate forecasts.

Why is the weather forecast inaccurate?

Time changes. Can you tell us more about that?

The atmospheric system is a relatively complex system, and the supercomputer will deduce the temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed, and wind direction measured by ground radar, satellites and other instruments, and use mathematical methods to calculate the laws of atmospheric motion, but the earth changes every moment, and a small change will cause the result error. Everyday life also has an impact on the climate, and these uncertainties also contribute to inaccurate forecasts.

Top 3 reasons why weather forecasts are sometimes inaccurate:

1. Weather forecasting requires extensive meteorological observation data to support, but some areas are limited by terrain and have few observation points, such as the ocean, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, etc.

2. The congenital insufficiency of observation data will affect the accuracy of weather forecasting.

3. The instrument is inaccurate and needs to be revised, which will also affect the accuracy of the forecast.

There is a difference between the understanding of the masses and the standards of meteorological operations in the "accuracy and inaccuracy" of weather forecasting. For example, if it is raining in one area, but there is no rain across the road, people in areas where it is not raining may think that the "rain" forecast is inaccurate. However, in meteorological business, there is a corresponding station ratio requirement for judging whether the forecast is accurate.

If a certain percentage of the stations that rain falls at multiple observation points in a large area, it is considered an accurate forecast in meteorological operations.

The weather forecast of the meteorological observatory is divided by region, and there are many counties, districts, townships, towns, and villages in this area. Rain is forecast for this area, but also.

It can be all under the whole area, and it is possible that some places are under it, and some places are not down. So, it's not that the weather forecast is inaccurate, but.

The scope of the region is too large, and climate change is also changing rapidly.

How can weather forecasts sometimes be inaccurate? Don't be in a hurry to complain just yet, you'll forgive it after reading this!