How does the weather forecast predict the weather?

Weather forecasting is based on meteorological observation (exploration) data, the application of the principles and methods of meteorology, dynamics, statistics to make qualitative or quantitative weather conditions in a certain period of time in a certain area or a certain place in the future. Accurate weather forecasting has always been an important goal of atmospheric science research. The history of weather forecasting can start from the earliest observation of the weather by looking at the clouds and speculating on the weather, and then it has gone through the stage of single-station forecasting, weather map forecasting, to the current application of advanced detection data such as meteorological satellites and weather radars, and the use of computers for weather forecasting.

With the continuous advancement of science and technology, weather forecasting has developed rapidly. According to the forecast time, the types of weather forecasts can be roughly divided into: nowcasting (1 2 hours), very short-term forecasts (2 12 hours), short-term forecasts (12 48 hours), medium-term forecasts (3 10 days), long-term forecasts (more than 10 days), etc.; According to the service object, it can be divided into:

Daily weather forecasting and professional weather forecasting (such as aviation weather forecasting, etc.); According to the forecast range, it can be roughly divided into regional forecast and station forecast. Due to the different service objects, there are certain differences in the forecast items, forecast timeliness, forecast terms, etc. At present, the weather forecasting method is mainly made by using the meteorological forecasting method, the statistical forecasting method and the dynamic forecasting method, as well as the weather-statistical forecasting method, the dynamic statistical forecasting method and the weather-dynamic forecasting method formed by the combination of these three basic forecasting methods.

Weather forecasting method (or weather map method): It is a method that uses weather maps as the main tool, with satellite cloud images, radar charts, etc., to analyze and study the changes of weather with the principles of meteorology, so as to make weather forecasts. This method is mainly used to make short-term forecasts.

Numerical prediction method (also known as dynamic prediction method): It is a method that uses a large and fast electronic computer to solve a system of dynamic equations that describe the movement of the atmosphere to make weather predictions. This method can be used to make short-term forecasts, as well as medium- and long-term forecasts.

In recent years, it has also begun to be used for climate forecasting. Statistical forecasting method: It is a method that uses a large number of long-term meteorological observation data, according to the principle of probability and statistics, to find out the statistical law of weather changes, and establish a statistical model of weather changes to make weather forecasts.

This method is mainly used for medium and long-term forecasts and forecasts for meteorological elements.

Weather forecasts are divided into red warnings, orange warnings, yellow warnings, blue warnings, and white warnings. Weather forecasting is the application of the law of atmospheric changes, according to the current and recent weather situation, the weather conditions of a certain place in a certain period of time in the future. It is based on the analysis of satellite cloud images and weather maps, combined with relevant meteorological data, topographical and seasonal characteristics, and the experience of the masses.

For example, the satellite cloud image of China's first meteorological observatory was taken by the "Fengyun-1" meteorological satellite made in China. The use of satellite cloud imagery** for analysis can improve the accuracy of weather forecasting. Weather forecasts are usually divided into three types in terms of the length of time:

Short-term weather forecast (2 3 days), medium-term weather forecast (4 9 days), long-term weather forecast (more than 10 15 days), **TV per day** is mainly short-term weather forecast.

Weather forecasting is the weather data calculated by computer based on the recent atmospheric change law data.

Weather forecasting is the weather**, which is the data that predicts the future weather through various numerical changes, due to the vagaries of nature, there are indeed certain regional differences in the "weather forecast", and it is inevitable that there will be inaccuracies.

The traditional weather forecast is to carry out the weather through the weather map (ground weather map and high-altitude weather map), due to imperfect equipment, it is inevitable to encounter forecast errors; However, after the development of science and technology, it is different, especially the development of high-tech such as weather radar, meteorological satellites, and meteorological observation balloons, which make the current weather forecast more accurate.

The development trend of weather forecasting in China

At the same time, China is actively developing meteorological technology, weather forecasting has been gradually transformed from the traditional "weather map forecasting method" to "numerical weather prediction method", and domestic automatic weather stations, weather radar detection networks, meteorological satellites, etc. have built a meteorological detection system covering the whole country to ensure that the weather forecast can be timely and out.

Everyone looks at the weather forecast almost every day, so as to decide what to wear and what to do tomorrow, but few people seem to ask how the weather forecast comes to ** weather, let's go and learn it together.

Turn on step-by-step reading mode.

How it works: 01 Weather forecasting: It is based on meteorological detection data, applying the principles and methods of meteorology, dynamics and statistics to make qualitative or quantitative weather conditions in a certain period of time in a certain area or a certain place in the future.

02 Types of Weather Forecasts:

Classification according to timelines: nowcast (1 2 hours), very short-term forecast (2 12 hours), short-term forecast (12 48 hours), medium-term forecast (3 10 days), long-term forecast (more than 10 days).

03 Classification according to service objects: daily weather forecast, professional weather forecast.

Among them, the daily weather forecast is the weather forecast we see after the news broadcast, and the professional weather forecast is mainly used in aerospace, aviation, and some scientific research.

04 Classification according to forecast range: regional forecast, station forecast.

The regional forecast can be simply thought of as the weather forecast for different cities in different provinces of our country, while the station forecast can be simply thought of as the weather at the observation point, and the accuracy of the two is different, and the application is also different.

05 Methods of Weather Forecasting:

Weather forecasting method: It is a method that uses weather maps as the main tool to analyze and study the changing laws of weather according to satellite cloud images, radar maps, etc., and uses the principles of meteorology to make weather forecasts. It is mainly used to make short-term forecasts.

06 Numerical prediction method: It is mainly based on the laws obtained by precise calculation of the dynamical equation of atmospheric motion, which can be used for short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasting.

08 Here, the knowledge briefly introduces some knowledge related to weather forecasting, if you are very interested, it is recommended that you read some related books in order to better understand weather forecasting.

1. No help to check.

1. Ants are in the way.

Before the rain, there is more moisture in the air, and the anthill becomes damp, so that the ants cannot live in peace and leave the nest.

2. Dragonflies fly low.

Before the rain, the air pressure is low, insects mostly float at low altitudes, and dragonflies are often off the ground in order to feed.

Flying in the air at two or three meters, this is a sign of impending wind and rain.

3. The spider closes the web.

When the air pressure rises and the humidity decreases, the spiders spread their webs to prey on insects, and spiders do not form webs in windy and rainy weather. Therefore, spiders can build webs to collect webs to ** the weather is sunny and cloudy.

4, the crow sings late.

The crow's head always stands against the wind. In the evening, the crows swirl and fly all over the sky, and the wow-wow, indicating that the sky is not in the direction of the wind, and the direction of the wind is a sign that the sky will have wind and rain.

5. The old cow raised its head.

When the weather is about to rain, the water vapor in the air increases, the air pressure is low, and it is difficult for the livestock to dissipate heat outward, and sometimes the phenomenon of opening the mouth to the sky to dissipate heat.

<> the second step, select the data source, **select the German Meteorological Office, **The geographical accuracy of the data is about degrees per grid.

<> the third step, select the time, and you can query the data within 7 days.

As follows:

1. Swallows fly low, which is a precursor to rain.

2. The sparrow does not fly far, it keeps flying and falling, sometimes flying high, sometimes flying rapidly, and it will rain after 30 minutes to 1 hour.

3. Cattle and sheep grazing in the wild do not go home when it is late, and they keep their heads down and eat violently, and there will be rain the next day.

4. The little frog is a small animal that chirps with its vocal cords, and it relies on two bubbles on both sides of the brain to make sounds. If it is a sunny day, because the temperature is moderate and the air pressure is normal, the frog's call is melodious and rhythmic; If the temperature rises and the temperature rises when the heavy rain is about to come, forcing the vocal cords of the baby frog to make it difficult to make sounds, the baby frog will bark irregularly.

In the countryside, there was no television in the village in the past, and the farmers did not know what the weather would be tomorrow, but after a long period of life experience, the wise farmers summed up a series of weather changes according to the changes in nature or the reaction of small animals, and these experiences were all the crystallization of the wisdom of the predecessors.

Dragonflies are also one of the little experts in forecasting the weather, it is observed that there are always a lot of dragonflies flying relatively low before each rain, and there is a proverb in rural areas that says "dragonflies fly low, go out with a raincoat".