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The U.S. non-farm payrolls data has a big impact on foreign exchange.
The most closely watched U.S. economic data in the foreign exchange market is the employment data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month. Among the employment data, "Unemployment Rate" and "New Non-farm Jobs" are the most important.
There are several reasons why this data can have such a great influence on the ** and foreign exchange market.
First, this data was released in a timely manner. This data is the first important economic data released every month, and this data is released by the Department of Labor a week after the survey, so it can keep the market up to date with the latest employment situation in the United States.
Second, this receipt provides a detailed indication of employment in the United States, and the information published is very useful for the overall economic situation of the country. Therefore, when the market gets this information, it can have an approximate ** of GDP.
Third, this data is about the income of the average American household. Obviously, when the employment situation of the people improves and the income increases, then it will drive all consumption links, and the growth of the US economy can be said to be dominated by internal consumption, so when you know the employment data, you can ** the overall consumption situation in the United States.
Strictly speaking, it has nothing to do with the US dollar, but the US dollar is the most commonly used settlement currency in the world, so some international ** in the US dollar ** will be affected by the trend of the US dollar. It is the best safe-haven currency in the world, and when the world economy is in a recession, or when geopolitics deteriorates, it will rise, and the rest has little to do with the United States.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls (i.e., U.S. non-farm payrolls, non-farm payrolls) is the employment data of the U.S. non-farm payrolls, which is released by the U.S. Department of Labor once a month, reflecting the trend of the U.S. economy. The non-farm payrolls data will affect the Fed's monetary policy on the dollar, the economy is poor, the Fed will be inclined to cut interest rates, the dollar will depreciate, the economy is good, the Fed will be inclined to raise interest rates, and the dollar will appreciate.
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The non-farm payrolls data in the United States has a certain impact on the trend of the dollar, so whether it is foreign exchange or ** will have an impact, if I have to say who has a greater impact, I personally think it is foreign exchange.
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In general, the increase in ** is opposite to that of the US dollar.
But for the non-farm data, it is for the US dollar, so the most direct impact is foreign exchange, and again, ** is indirectly affected, but not as large as the US dollar!
For the long-term, medium-term and short-term, the general trend cannot be changed, but it is not excluded that there will be a sharp rise, after all, foreign exchange belongs to the global economy, not one or a few countries can control.
If you have any questions, please feel free to consult!
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There are short-term effects, but long-term trends are not easy to change.
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Non-farm payrollsIn the United States, it generally refers to the non-farm payrolls, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate (employment), and the publication time is generally 21:30 Beijing time (November to March in winter) and 20:30 in summer (April to October in summer) on the first Friday of each month.
It reflects the development and growth of the manufacturing and service sectors.
First, the impact of the results of the non-farm payrolls rate on the market
Second: the declared value is greater than the previous value and expectations, bullish on the US dollar, bearish on foreign exchange (non-US dollar), gold and silver, **.
Fourth: the announced value is less than the previous value and expectations, the dollar is negative, the foreign exchange is bullish (non-US), gold and silver, **.
Second, how does the non-farm payrolls data affect ****?
1.Non-farm payrolls.
The decline in the value of non-farm payrolls indicates a sluggish economy. Enterprises reduce production. The dollar is bad, ** good.
The increase in non-agricultural values indicates a good economic situation. Good for interest rate hikes, good for the dollar, bad for gold and silver.
2.Jobless rate.
The decline in the unemployment rate represents the healthy development of the overall economy, which is good for the dollar and bad for gold and silver.
A rise in unemployment means a slowdown in the economy, which is bad for the dollar and good for the dollar.
Non-farm payrolls data will not only have a huge impact on the commodity market, but also perpetuate, hinder or even change the development of commodity trends. So, how to grasp the impact of non-farm payrolls data on commodities?
1.Pay attention to changes in market trends: *** The market is facing the test of the continuation of the non-agricultural trend, so to what extent has the trend of your ** and other products developed?
Judging by the course of the trend development, it can be determined how long it will last. The non-farm payrolls data could change this trend. Gold and silver have been bullish recently.
In the case of non-farm profits, the upward trend is likely to continue. If it is negative, it will suppress **** in the short term.
2.Pay attention to the impact of non-farm inducements: non-farm payrolls data has a great impact on the metals market in the United States, etc.
Judging from the previous data, the large volatility in the market on the night of the release of the non-farm payrolls data occupied the main trading day. At the same time, due to the different interpretations of the market after the release of the data, the market fluctuates rapidly and greatly, and is even full of short inducement operations. So, be extremely careful not to blindly pursue orders.
The impact of the timing of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data announcement on ****
3.Do a good stop loss: After the announcement of non-agricultural data, make a real stop loss in one direction. It is necessary to amplify the stop loss appropriately. At the same time, the NFP market can form false breakouts near key support and resistance and should be avoided.
Summary: Judging from the previous trend, the market will fluctuate greatly, and in many cases, the market will fluctuate violently, and some commodities will fluctuate around 100-200 points on non-agricultural days. So pay attention to the impact of non-farm payrolls data on commodities.
If the released non-farm payrolls data is greater than expected, it means that the United States has a large number of employed people, and the recovery of the U.S. economy is bound to hit the risk aversion. will go down under pressure.
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The Nonfarm Payrolls report measures employment in all U.S. businesses, excluding agriculture, local**, private households, and the nonprofit sector. The Non-Farm Payrolls report is considered one of the most comprehensive indicators of the health of the U.S. economy. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls** is released on the Friday evening of the first week of each month, Beijing Time (Daylight Saving Time).
April - October) released at 20:30, (winter time: November - March) 21:
30. In the event of a special event, the non-farm payrolls data may not be released on time, which is subject to the announcement of the U.S. Department of Labor.
The impact of non-farm payrolls data on ****
Given the importance of the US dollar in the world, every data release triggers the market**. In forex analysis, there is a negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and non-U.S. dollar currencies,**. Therefore, a good dollar means a bad non-dollar currency,**.
Non-farm payrolls data generally publishes three numbers: employment (net).Unemployment and employment rates. The most important are the number of employed people (net) and the unemployment rate.
The analysis is based on the difference between the three data, and each time a market change is considered, the three items of each data should be considered together: the previous value, the expected value, and the actual published value. According to the gap between the actual announced value and the expected value, the foreign exchange and **** trend should be further judged.
Ahead of the NFP data, investors should carefully analyze the recent jobs data and rule out the expected data game, as long as the final NFP data maintains its growth momentum, it will indicate that the US job market is still in a state of recovery (since the US job market is in a state of recovery, then the impact of the Fed's interest rate hikes and quantitative easing). )
On the whole, non-agricultural data can have the following four impacts on the trend.
The first effect: the non-farm payrolls data is greater than the previous value and larger than expected. Bullish for the dollar, bearish for **.
The second impact: the non-farm payrolls data is smaller than the previous value and less than expected. Bearish for the US dollar, bullish**.
The third effect: the non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, but larger than the previous value. **First up and then down.
The fourth effect: the non-farm payrolls data is larger than expected, but less than the previous value. **First down and then up.
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It is to rely on the trend of influencing the trend, because these data will affect the rally of the market, so it will affect the trend.
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The number of people employed in the United States is gradually increasing, and after the economic recovery, the number of people who buy ** increases, **just**.
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Because only after these people have income, they will consume, so as to increase the purchasing power of the first, which will naturally affect the trend of the first
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1. What is the non-farm payrolls data?
The non-farm payrolls data consists of three parts: the number of non-farm payrolls, the employment rate and the unemployment rate, which are data indicators that reflect the employment status of the non-farm population in the United States. The main body of the data is the U.S. Department of Labor, through which people can more accurately** the overall consumption of the United States, and the data can also affect the value of the dollar in the currency market.
2. The release time of non-agricultural data.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be released on the evening of the first Friday of each month Beijing time, April to October is summer time, the release time is 20:30, and November to March is winter time, the release time is 21:30.
3. The impact of non-agricultural data on the ****.
The United States is the world's only superpower, and the speed of its economic development has a profound impact on the development of many industries. Therefore, the release of non-farm payrolls data can affect people's views on the economic development of the United States, thereby affecting people's prediction of the market in the whole society.
In the market, a good non-farm payrolls report can enhance people's confidence in the current level of economic development in the United States, and can effectively drive the rise of interest rates, making the dollar more attractive to investors, and at the same time can objectively reflect the rise and fall of the U.S. economy. If the non-farm payrolls report is higher than the market expectation, then it will be positive for the dollar and bearish**, while if the actual value is lower than the market expectation, it will be lower than expected, bearish for the dollar, positive**.
As one of the objects that people need to focus on in the trading market, traders should collect a variety of information to determine the current trend of non-agricultural data as accurately as possible, so as to adjust their trading strategies in a timely manner to safeguard their trading interests.
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In fact, there are two kinds of non-farm data, one is large non-farm data, and the other is small non-farm data. Since these two data reflect the state of development of the US economy, they not only affect the dollar index, but also often affect the rise and fall of the ** market. If the non-agricultural data is good, then the economic development is good, which is bad for the first place.
Conversely, if the non-farm payrolls data is bad, the impact on the market is positive.
Non-farm payrolls big data are three pieces of data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor: non-farm payrolls, employment rate, and unemployment rate. Compared with the small non-farm payrolls data, the large non-farm payrolls data can more intuitively reflect the current economic situation in the United States.
The NFP data is released at 20:30 on the first Friday of each month, two days later than the mini-NFP data. Small NFP data tends to be at 20:0 on the first Wednesday of the month
15 releases. Investors usually wait for the data to be released at this time, and judge the specific trend of gold prices based on the data, so as to make a profit. The impact of the non-farm payrolls data on the ** market is mainly focused on these two points.
The employment number, employment rate and unemployment rate of the non-agricultural population in the United States can directly reflect the development and growth of the manufacturing and service industries in the United States. The better the economic development, the lower the **** at this time, and the poor economic development can make the **** have a certain ****. Generally speaking, the non-agricultural data is just a data, so in practice, large and small non-agricultural data can affect the trend of the market, but it cannot really determine the trend of the market.
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What does NFP mean?
Non-farm payrolls data is a set of data collected by U.S. labor tools, including three sets of data: non-farm payrolls, employment rate, and unemployment rate. Non-farm payrolls data is generally released on the first Friday of each month, which can reflect the employment situation and economic conditions in the United States to a certain extent, so the US dollar and ** are very sensitive to non-farm payrolls data.
Specifically, before the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the economy in the market will carry out **, if the non-farm payrolls data is higher than expected, it means that the employment situation is better; If the non-farm payrolls data is lower than expected, it means that the employment situation is not good.
Non-farm payrolls data and gold prices rose and fell
If the non-farm payrolls data is not as expected, it means that the employment situation in the United States is not good, which is bad news for the US economic situation. Economic data is not good, and it is difficult for the dollar to strengthen.
**There is a certain "negative correlation" with the US dollar, and when the US dollar is weak, gold prices may **; When the dollar is strong, it is difficult for gold prices to do well**.
In general, the non-farm payrolls data will affect the trend of the US dollar, and the strength of the US dollar will affect the trend of foreign exchange, ***, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the trend of US stocks. In the eyes of investors, the non-agricultural data is less than expected, which is good news for gold prices; On the contrary, it is bad news.
The Federal Reserve continues to be hawkish, **** was once blocked, and the non-agricultural market in September is bound to become a decisive force in the market trend! The gold market may welcome a huge earthquake! Giant Elephant Golden Ten Trading Course Escort for Your Investment!
Juxiang Bullion can synchronize the free **Golden Ten VIP column: Institutional Trading Plan & Gold and Silver Report; There is also an exclusive release of the non-agricultural views of platform celebrities to interpret the latest employment situation in the United States for you and seize the opportunity of the gold market layout!
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