What a slowdown in economic growth means for China

What is the impact of China's economic slowdown on the international economy? The experts hit the nail on the head.

What are the root causes of China's economic slowdown? Experts tell the truth.

China's economic slowdown is mainly due to the following reasons:

1. The end of the industrialization process;

2. On the issue of demographic dividend, an important resource to promote the industrialization process is human capital, and the key condition to support the high growth of China's industrialized economy is the number and composition of the population;

3. Supply-side innovation-driven, promoting supply-side structural reform, in essence, is to advocate innovation-driven transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, support all kinds of market players to accelerate the development of technology, new products, new formats, new models, etc., and drive demand expansion with innovative supply, so as to expand demand and force supply upgrading, so as to truly expand effective, mid-to-high-end supply.

Economic growth, in a narrow sense, refers to GDP growth. Growth falls under the macroeconomic spectrum.

Economic growth generally refers to a sustained increase in the level of per capita output (or per capita income) of a country over a long period of time. The economic growth rate reflects the growth rate of a country's or region's economic aggregate in a certain period of time, and is also a measure of the growth rate of a country's or region's overall economic strength. Direct factors that determine economic growth:

The amount of investment, the amount of labor, the level of productivity. GDP calculated at current prices can reflect the scale of economic development of a country or region, and GDP calculated at constant prices can be used to calculate the rate of economic growth.

The mode of economic growth refers to the mode of achieving economic growth of a country (or region).

Economic growth can be divided into two forms, extensive and intensive. According to the analysis of the aggregate production function and the calculation of the elasticity of capital output and the elasticity of labor output, the economic growth rate of a period can be decomposed, that is, the economic growth caused by the increase in the input of production factors and the part caused by the increase in factor productivity. If the proportion of economic growth caused by the increase of factor input is significant, it is an extensive growth mode. If the increase in factor productivity causes a large proportion of economic growth, it is an intensive growth mode.

The choice of economic growth mode should adhere to the following three principles:

1. Whether it is conducive to sustained and coordinated economic growth;

2. Whether it is conducive to the improvement of input-output benefits;

3. Whether it is conducive to meeting social needs, that is, it is conducive to the optimization of economic structure, the improvement of social welfare and the protection of the environment.

1. It is impossible for any country's economy to sustain high growth, and China is no exception.

2. China's economy is currently in a period of transformation, the pursuit of high quality, and the pursuit of stability, and it is normal for it to slow down.

3. Therefore, whether the economy slows down or falls, it is a process, which is why the principle of "new normal" is proposed.

4. In the coming period of China's economy, the current official tone is: the new normal is to no longer blindly pursue the so-called high growth.

5. Therefore, we should better understand and understand the so-called "new normal" mentions.

Personally, I think that people are still in the post-epidemic era, and their confidence in consumption has not yet recovered. The first reason: the impact of the epidemic has not yet dissipated.

As we all know, affected by the epidemic, Wu Chi's domestic and world economic situation in the past three years has not been very good, due to the Federal Reserve's crazy printing of money, it relies on the hegemony of the dollar, and all countries in the world have to "take the blame". In the context of commodities, inflation continues to affect the lives of ordinary people around the world, and my country is certainly not immune. Therefore, in recent years, you will find that the money in hand is becoming more and more "worthless", and business is becoming more and more difficult, more and more enterprises are going bankrupt, and many people are in a state of salary reduction or unemployment, which also causes the people to have no extra funds in their hands.

Industry insiders pointed out that the impact of the epidemic should not be underestimated, and it will take a certain amount of time for China's economy to recover. The second reason: a lot of money is being sucked away by real estate.

In the past few decades, China's real economy has not developed rapidly, mainly because of the excessive development of real estate in various places. Moreover. The rapid development of real estate has also brought the headache of high housing prices.

It is not until recent years that the epidemic has cooled down the property market, and housing prices in many cities have returned to the level of 2 or even 3 years ago. However, just when many people will think that housing prices will be the norm in the future, the property market is now beginning to "add fuel and firewood" again. According to the data, in the past one or two years, the introduction of policies to encourage housing purchases in various parts of the country has reached an "unprecedented" crazy level.

Typical examples are: subsidies for home buyers, reducing down payments and bank mortgage loan interest rates, increasing the amount of provident fund loans and the policy of helping the whole family to buy a house, second-hand housing with mortgage transfer, etc. Under the encouragement of the policy, many buyers who are holding on to the currency have started to buy houses.

However, judging from the current housing prices, it is difficult for ordinary people to have extra funds for consumption after buying a house. The third reason: housing loans and car loans will affect residents' long-term consumption.

For decades, under the influence of the concept of "advanced consumption", many people have to take out loans to buy houses and cars even if they have no money, although they enjoy a rich material life in advance, but at the same time, they also spend the money they earned in the next few decades in advance. Look at many young people nowadays, most of them are burdened with mortgages for 20 or even 30 years, and their monthly salary is to raise children in addition to paying off debts. Taking care of the elderly, how can there be extra funds to spend?

The fourth reason: the market homogeneity is too serious and there is a lack of innovation. Now the "homogenization" of doing business in the market is very serious.

For example, taking the matter of opening a bubble tea shop as an example, now the streets and alleys are full of various brands and types of bubble tea shops. But even so, there are still a large number of entrepreneurs pouring into this subdivision every year, and the result of this is that "the cake has always been so big, but more and more people are sharing the cake", and business will naturally be difficult to do.

Because of China's rapid economic development, China's international status has also been greatly improved.

From 1953 to 2010, China has successively completed eleven local fluids"Five-year plan"and has made remarkable achievements, laying a solid foundation for the development of the national economy; The reform and opening up since 1979 has enabled China's economy to achieve unprecedented rapid growth.

Since the beginning of the 21 st century, China's economy has continued to maintain steady and high-speed growth. The market economic system has been initially established, the market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources, and the macroeconomic regulation and control system is becoming more and more perfect. A pattern of common development of the non-public economy, with the public economy as the mainstay and individual, private, and foreign-funded economies developing together, has basically taken shape, and the mode of economic growth has gradually changed from an extensive model to an intensive one.

From January to September 2012, China's economic growth rate has fallen back. Compared to China's growth rate of nearly 10% over the past 30 years, the growth rate during the 11th Five-Year Plan period is even closer. So below 10 or 8 per cent, it is clearly a slowdown in economic growth.

In addition, various macro data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the economic growth rate of the country has begun to slow down.

1. Structural factors: China's economic structure is unbalanced, and the foundation of economic growth is insufficient, which restricts the potential of economic development.

2. Slowdown in investment growth: The slowdown in investment growth and the weakening of enterprises' willingness to invest have affected economic growth.

3. Adjustment of demand structure: China's economic development has entered the new normal, the ability of consumption to drive economic growth has weakened, and economic growth has slowed down.

4. Resource and environmental factors: resource depletion, environmental pollution and other factors have a negative impact on economic growth and inhibit economic growth.

5. The international economic situation is unstable: the international economic situation is unstable, and the external environment has changed greatly, which has brought a negative impact on China's economic growth.

At present, the reasons for the slowdown in China's economic growth and the greater downward pressure are:

1.Structural imbalances in the economy.

2.Cyclical factors in economic development.

3.The economy is superimposed by the cyclical, structural and externality factors of hunger-only development.