Why some people say that the appreciation of the renminbi is good for the paper industry, I don t un

This problem should be analyzed comprehensively: Because the appreciation of the RMB can reduce the production cost of enterprises in the paper industry, because many raw materials in the domestic paper industry are imported goods, the appreciation of the RMB can reduce the cost a lot, which is helpful to the improvement of profits in these industries. Therefore, in the short term, the appreciation of the renminbi will be reassessed in the industries that are more sensitive to exchange rate changes.

Therefore, enterprises with a high proportion of imports, such as papermaking, and relatively large external debt, and relatively high liquidity of RMB assets, will definitely be sought after by investors, which is often heard from analysts on TV The so-called paper industry is anti-RMB appreciation and anti-inflation industry. In addition, pulp and waste paper are the third largest foreign exchange commodities in China after oil and iron ore, although the appreciation of the RMB seriously affects exports, but the import of these raw materials will become cheaper, and the decline in enterprise costs will help to increase gross profit. This also has the same advantages for the import of papermaking equipment.

And the appreciation of the RMB on the paper industry finished products is not large, on the one hand, the proportion of domestic cost paper exports is not high, the export pressure caused by the appreciation is not large, and the first import of paper will also increase the corresponding proportion, so that the competitive advantage of domestic paper is revealed, so regardless of the impact of import and export can be considered not very high. Of course, there is also a slight impact, such as coated paper, newsprint and other high-grade paper imports, but there is also corresponding anti-dumping protection in China, and the demand is originally limited. Another impact may be on the heating up of imports, which may have a certain impact on domestic pulp producers.

But no matter how you look at it, the appreciation of the RMB in the short term is obviously good for the paper industry.

Because most of the raw materials of the paper industry, including production equipment, are imported, and the export is very small, the import is settled in US dollars, and the US dollar is worthless if the RMB appreciates, which is of course good for the entire industry.

Remember.

Comrade, the fundamentals don't work, it is said that the renminbi is appreciating, ** falling into this miserable situation, what is the use of the fundamentals?

The two seem to be unrelated, in fact, the reason is very simple, China's forests are scarce, and it is forbidden to cut down indiscriminately, papermaking raw materials are generally imported from abroad, take the paper industry listed companies as an example, according to statistics, papermaking raw material imports account for the highest proportion of 60 70, RMB appreciation will make its cost down.

But if you are **, you can't not only look at this one indicator, but also measure the product leaving the factory**, and whether it will be restricted by national policies because of environmental protection issues, etc. Thank you!

The key equipment of the large-scale papermaking production line must all be imported.

Papermaking raw materials - pulp board, waste paper Most of our country relies on imports, and the export of product paper and cardboard is less, and the first two are particularly prominent for listed companies in the paper industry.

The appreciation of the renminbi is definitely good for the paper industry as a whole.

Because the import amount of raw materials (wood pulp, waste paper) in the paper industry is much larger than the export amount of our finished paper, the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the decline of raw material costs in the industry. However, for listed companies in the paper industry, the impact may not be too great, because the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials of listed companies is relatively high. The appreciation of the renminbi is not necessarily good for most industries in the light industry, because the enterprises in many industries are export-oriented enterprises, and the appreciation of the renminbi weakens the export competitiveness of their products.

The appreciation of RMB mainly has an impact on the aviation sector, the paper sector and the foreign trade sector.

Because China's paper industry is underdeveloped, the raw materials, technology and even equipment of forest pulp and paper, which have the highest profit and best quality in the paper industry, are imported from abroad. Canada is a major target importer.

Because China's paper industry is an imported raw material industry, the raw materials imported by the appreciation of the RMB are equivalent to cheaper.

First, the domestic papermaking raw materials in the wood pulp and waste paper import proportion is large, after the appreciation of the RMB purchasing power enhanced, is conducive to reducing the cost of imported raw materials. Because in the composition of papermaking production costs, enterprises with wood pulp as the main raw material, wood pulp accounts for about 65-75 of their production costs; Enterprises with waste paper as the main raw material, waste paper accounts for about 50-70 of their production costs. Nearly 80 of China's paper industry needs to rely on imports of wood pulp and waste paper, especially the production of high-end paper products such as coated paper, lightly coated paper, white cardboard, etc., so the appreciation of RMB will reduce the import cost of wood pulp and waste paper, so that enterprises with imported wood pulp and waste paper as raw materials will benefit significantly.

If only the impact of RMB appreciation on raw material costs is considered, RMB appreciation2 can reduce costs, increase gross profit margins, and increase total profits.

Second, most of the domestic large-scale paper machines rely on imports, and the purchasing power of RMB is enhanced to reduce the cost of introducing equipment. More than 60 of the fixed asset investment in the paper industry is equipment investment, and most of them are imported paper machinery equipment, and the appreciation of RMB will cause a corresponding decline in imported equipment, reducing the procurement cost of imported equipment for paper companies. The third is the exchange income, because the import of paper machines and raw materials need foreign currency, listed companies have foreign currency liabilities, with the appreciation of the RMB, will bring considerable exchange income to some enterprises.

1.Appreciation to increase exports is not conducive to exports (this point is often mentioned, I personally believe that the current appreciation weakens the cost advantage of China's export products in the low-end market, but at the same time forces Chinese enterprises to improve the technical content and increase the added value of export products, which is not a bad thing).

2.The expectation of appreciation leads to a large inflow of foreign currency, leading to excess domestic liquidity and inflationary pressures; On the other hand, excessive international capital inflows and excess domestic liquidity have pushed up domestic assets, especially high-speed, which have brought hidden dangers to the healthy development of the economy. (This is the main problem at the moment).

The cost of the paper industry has 80 is pulp, and most of China's pulp depends on imports, China is an important net importer of pulp and waste paper in the world, from the past several rotten data, paper and paper products have become the third largest foreign exchange commodity in China after oil and steel. According to the data, if the production of domestic wood pulp is not increased, according to the current level of the world's net wood pulp exports, by 2010, the amount of wood pulp that China needs to import will account for more than 60% of the global net wood pulp trading volume. The appreciation of the renminbi will make it cheaper for domestic papermaking enterprises to import important raw materials such as pulp and waste paper, and reduce costs for domestic papermaking enterprises.

On the other hand, due to the backward equipment of China's papermaking enterprises, unable to meet the process requirements of high-grade paper production, in recent years, a large number of foreign production lines have been introduced, and in 2004, China's imported papermaking equipment used in foreign exchange amounted to 100 million US dollars. The appreciation of the RMB will reduce the import cost of papermaking equipment, thereby reducing production costs and financial expenses, and improving the profitability of enterprises. Based on the current cost of the paper industry, it is expected that the appreciation of RMB Jiantong 2 can reduce the cost by about 3, increase the gross profit margin by about 3, and increase the total profit by more than 9.

Since last year, the RMB appreciation space has been close to 3, which also indicates that the profit margin of the paper industry is increasing rapidly. Moreover, the demand for newsprint and other paper products is expanding day by day, which will bring new opportunities to the paper sector.

For example, it used to cost 10 yuan for a bucket of wood pulp and 5 yuan for an egg, but now that the RMB has appreciated, you can only buy 1 egg for 100 yuan, but the imported wood pulp is still 10 yuan, which is profitable.

Most of the pulp and paper machinery is imported and borrowed from foreign exchange loans.

1, ** real estate, China's economy continues to rise, real estate appreciation, at the same time RMB appreciation, and finally withdraw, exchanged for US dollars, both to earn RMB appreciation money, and at the same time to earn real estate appreciation money.

3. Aviation and aviation fuel are the biggest cost of aviation, and aviation fuel needs to be imported, the same as the second reason.

The appreciation of the renminbi means that the renminbi is worth more than foreign currencies, and the things that were originally bought for 5 yuan may be bought for 4 yuan after appreciation, which is cheaper.

In the above things, the real estate is a store of value; Papermaking requires imported raw materials; Aviation imports more fuel. When the cost is reduced, the profit is more!

Don't you know?!

Generally speaking, the appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to imported commodities and not to the production of commodities. The same renminbi can buy more goods from abroad after appreciation, which is equivalent to the appreciation of the value of the total domestic social goods.