What are counter cyclical stocks 20 and what are counter cyclical stocks

Counter-cyclical stocks are simply violating the law of cyclical rises and falls, for example, coal was originally his stock price in July, but he did not rise in July, which violates the law of the cycle, of course, I am talking about this July is not now, and now coal stocks have rebounded.

It is the opposite of the fluctuation cycle, for example, in the downward phase of an economic cycle, the performance of this ticket is rising.

It is the first cyclical industry, and the general cyclical industry refers to: non-ferrous metals, construction, real estate, steel, storage and transportation, finance, machinery manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, etc.

The 300 non-weekly in the CSI 300 only deletes five industries with strong cyclical characteristics, such as finance and insurance, mining, transportation and warehousing, metal and non-metal, and real estate.

Have you read the data? Any comments, no 71

Cyclical stocks are those that are closely related to the economic cycle**.

That is, the rapid development of the economy, such listed companies are also developing fast, ****, economic development is slow, the development of such companies is also relatively slow, stock prices, such as cement, steel, building materials, resources and other industries are more typical cyclical stocks.

The economic cycle refers to the process of a country's economic development, which is fast and slow, and there are certain rules; To put it simply, when a country's economic development is too fast, banks will generally raise interest rates and other measures, and the economy will slowly slow down, and when the economy is slow, banks will generally reduce interest rates and other measures to increase investment, and the economic development will change from slow to fast; The economic tanji cycle is generally divided into four stages: recession, trough, expansion and peak.

The characteristics of weekly and simple futures stocks are very obvious, very low in weak cycles, very hot in strong cycles, very high, and some often repeat at low and high levels with the economic cycle.

Cyclical stocks are not immutable, although some of the Tong stocks belong to cyclical stocks, but the trend can also be out of the independent ****, such as the liquor sector, with the characteristics of cyclical stocks, but between 2012 and 2020, out of the independent**.

Q1: What are cyclical stocks?

Q2: What does cyclical stock mean?

There are two situations of cyclical stocks: one is that the operating conditions of the issuing company are susceptible to fluctuations in the entire economic cycle, such as construction, cement, steel, automobile and other industries; The second refers to the fact that the operating conditions of the issuing company itself have the characteristics of cyclical changes, such as refrigerators, beverages, clothing and other industries. In boom times, cyclical stocks are profitable; In times of depression, the earnings of cyclical stocks decrease.

Reflected in the ** side, its fluctuation range is larger.

The choice of cyclical stocks.

In addition to analyzing the company's operating and financial status, the key to choosing cyclical stocks is to choose the right time to buy and sell, that is: buy at the end of the recession; Sell at the peak of the boom. Choosing cyclical stocks can also achieve the purpose of portfolio investment.

Due to the large volatility of dividends and ** of cyclical stocks, it is not easy to obtain accurate results using common valuation methods such as market profitability. For example, the profitability of cyclical stocks usually rises and falls more than their **, and there will be a situation where ** is at a high point and the market price profitability is low.

A more accurate way to evaluate a cyclical stock is to calculate the profitability per share of the issuing company, which indicates the amount of profit that the cyclical stock would have made during a boom period. The specific method is to average the figures of the issuing company's recent 3-year highest equity return to obtain the average rate of return of the company in the best period, and then multiply this ratio by the company's recently estimated book value to obtain the data on profitability per share.

Using this number, it is possible to calculate the ratio of ** to profitability. If this ratio is significantly lower than the general** market-to-market rate of return based on planned profits, then such cyclicals should be attractive to investors.

For example, a cyclical ** earnings after last year's decline were $1 per share, and now it is trading at $36**. The market profit rate is 24 yuan, which seems to be higher, but it does not indicate whether it is expensive or cheap, because this year's profit will rise and make the current ** appear lower.

That's where profitability comes in: if the issuing company had earnings per share of 1% and 18% respectively in the three years before the recession, the average return on equity in the best period was 15%. When the book value is $20, the ** should be able to earn $3 per share.

Trading at $36 indicates that the early ratio of profitability is 12. If the recent market rate of return is average, calculated based on planned earnings, then the ratio of ** to profitability of the cyclical stock is slightly lower and not particularly cheap.

This type of ** is mostly speculative**. Such as automobile manufacturing companies or real estate companies, when the overall economy rises, these also rise rapidly; When the overall economy goes downhill, these **also**.

The corresponding counterparts are non-cyclical stocks, which are companies that produce essential goods that do not change much in demand, such as food and medicine, regardless of the economic trend.

Investors should not be too superstitious about the P/E ratio, because it is often misleading for investing in cyclical stocks, and cyclical stocks with low P/E ratios do not mean that they have investment value, and on the contrary, high P/E ratios do not necessarily mean that they are overvalued.

Take steel stocks as an example, in the downturn, their P/E ratios can only remain in the single digits, and the lowest can reach less than 5 times, if investors compare it with the average P/E ratio level of the market, they think"Cheap"Later, you may face a long wait, miss out on other investment opportunities, and even suffer further losses.

Throughout the economic cycle, the cyclical performance of different industries varies. When there is an inflection point in the trough and just begins to recover, basic industries such as petrochemicals, construction, cement, and papermaking will be the first to benefit, and the stock price will also start in advance.

In the subsequent recovery and growth phase, blind capital-intensive industries such as machinery and equipment, cyclical electronic products and related parts industries will perform well, and investors can adjust their positions **related**.

At the peak of the economic boom, business is booming, and the protagonist of the rise at this time is the consumer discretionary goods, such as cars, high-end clothing, luxury goods, consumer electronics products and tourism and other industries.

Hello, cyclical stocks represent those that need to pay relatively high dividends and have to go down and up and down with the economic cycle. This category is more sensitive to changes in market data, which can be said to reflect the changing trend of the market in advance, and can be said to be a barometer of the economy.

Cyclical stocks have no geographical restrictions in terms of products, such as steel and nonferrous metals can be transported nationwide or even globally, so the scope of competitiveness of these ** is relatively wide. Cement is also cyclical, but it is also regional. For example, if the Sichuan-Tibet railway is being built, then the local cement stocks will change instead of the cement stocks in other places.

However, this is not the case with steel, the entire steel sector can be changed, cement is a small cyclical stock, and steel is a large cyclical stock.

At present, there is little or no difference between cyclical stocks in the production products, and there is no greater uniqueness between the listed companies of cyclical stocks, because it has achieved its comprehensive competition situation. This has to say that the liquor **, the liquor and soy sauce liquor between various listed companies are different, there are very big differences, and the competition is relatively small.

It is easier to expand the capacity of cyclical stocks. As long as there is a certain amount of time, the output of these products can appear, but according to the above characteristics, the larger the production capacity, the greater the product and the no big difference, it will only cause further intensification of competition. There will only be competition on the **, and whoever is cheaper will have a big order.

Although cyclical stocks all have the above characteristics and the reasons for their formation are the same, they also perform inconsistently at different times. When the market recovers, nonferrous metals, construction, steel and other foundations will want to perform, reflecting the changes in the market; When the market has shown obvious growth environment, other machinery, industry and other production development industries will have outstanding performance, and at the peak of the market, the automotive industry, real estate, winemaking, aviation will have a big performance.

Risk Disclosure: This information does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should not use such information to replace their independent judgment or make decisions based solely on such information, does not constitute any buying and selling operations, and does not guarantee any returns. If you are doing it yourself, please pay attention to ** control and risk control.

Cyclical stocks - simply put, they fluctuate regularly, and they change with changes in market demand.

Let's take a chestnut