Wei Yan s Meridian Valley plan only has 5,000 people, why didn t Zhuge Liang dare to try?

Because Zhuge Liang has always been a steady and steady person, he thinks that Wei Yan's plan is too risky, so he doesn't dare to try it easily. The main reason is that Wei Yan's plan is too difficult to implement, if this plan fails, and even if it really succeeds, it may not be of much benefit to the Shu State. The entire road in this part of Meridian Valley is relatively rough, and if there is bad weather, the strategy of surprise attack will basically fail.

Moreover, even if Chang'an could really be won at that time, according to the situation at that time, it was not necessarily necessary to hold Chang'an. Because according to the geographical situation at that time, when Shu took Chang'an, Chang'an would be surrounded by Wei. In this way, the risk factor becomes higher.

Therefore, according to Zhuge Liang's character, he will definitely not try it easily.

At that time, the situation in Shu could not be wronged, and besides, Zhuge Liang had already made some mistakes in command, so he would only make himself more cautious at that time. Of course, as a general, Wei Yan's idea was right. He thinks that using this kind of trick to win Chang'an must be a great credit, and his fame will definitely rise.

However, Zhuge Liang, as a commander-in-chief, has too many things to consider, after all, he can't just look at the pros and cons in front of him.

In fact, Wei Yan has always felt that his talent is not being used well, and he thinks that Zhuge Liang's temperament is too timid. In fact, it was really impossible to realize Wei Yan's plan at that time. Whether it is from the perspective of the environment or manpower, it is too unrealistic to want to use the Meridian Valley as a surprise soldier to occupy Chang'an.

In addition, Zhuge Liang had always distrusted Wei Yan and believed that he had a tendency to betray, so it was impossible to take such a risk. If Wei Yan's plan really failed, the loss would only be some soldiers, horses and manpower, which would already be a pain in the bones for Shu at that time.

When Shu fell, the total number of troops was only 100,000, and the first Northern Expedition was 170,000. At the same time, Chengdu should retain garrison troops, Nanban should leave deterrent troops, Yong'an should also retain sufficient troops, plus the defenders of various cities, Zhuge Liang can mobilize limited troops.

Wei Yan's plan required a hurried march through the Meridian Valley, a tactic that could not be done by the recruits who had just put down their hoes and recruited into the army, and they had to bring veterans who had been honed in battle. If the 5,000 veterans are dismantled and the old and new are mixed, even if they are all divided according to the commander, they can get about 20,000 troops that can go to the battlefield. Pure recruit troops and recruit troops with veteran bands are not the same concept at all.

Moreover, Wei Yan's tactical failure rate was too high, Cao Wei's reaction had to follow his expected steps exactly, and Zhuge Liang's main force of the Northern Expedition had to open the offensive channel and join him within the specified time. As long as there is a problem in one of the links, Wei Yan and the five thousand elites will be in a desperate situation. To save or not to save when the time comes?

Even if Wei Yanhong Fuqitian took Chang'an or even Tongguan, Cao Rui could completely organize the Guanzhong army to counterattack. When Ma Chao and Han Sui rebelled against Cao, they also used the Tongguan-Yellow River defense line to hold on, but they were still cracked by Xu Huang's detour to Banpujin. At that time, the quantity and quality of the Mahan coalition army was much stronger than Wei Yan's lone army, and the Xiliang Iron Cavalry was not good.

Taking a step back, Wei Yan miraculously held Chang'an or Tongguan, Cao Rui chose F2A to fight Zhuge Liang all in, Shu still can't win, otherwise there is no need to carefully cut the right.

Take a step back, even if you can win a miserable victory, what is the use of Shu Kingdom? Wu Guo easily picked the fruit and picked up a big unification for nothing.

In the TV series version of the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Zhuge Liang made it directly. The road is far away, and I am afraid that if the plan fails, it will seriously affect the morale of the Shu army. Therefore, Zhuge Liang did not adopt it, but sought the near and far.

Wei Yan's Meridian Valley plan only needs 5,000 people, but Zhuge Liang does not dare to try it because Zhuge Liang is afraid that these 5,000 people will fail and not succeed, and will damage these 5,000 people.

Because Zhuge Liang was a particularly cautious person, he had hardly done anything risky in his life, and although Wei Yan's strategy might be effective, it was also very risky.

After the defeat of Shu Han in Yiling, the elite was lost, and there were not many new forces in Shu, so they could no longer take risks.

<> "Wei Yan Meridian Valley Plan, Why didn't Zhuge Liang adopt it?"

Speaking of Zhuge Liang, he is actually the first wisdom in the world, but he also knows that this person is a little cautious, so many people are asking, why didn't Zhuge Liang use it in the matter of Wei Yan's Meridian Valley conspiracy? And Wei Yan only needs a few thousand people, so what is the situation?

Admittedly, the key to this problem is not the success rate of the conspiracy, but Zhuge Liang. Regarding Zhuge Liang, it should be analyzed from two directions:

First, Zhuge Liang, who was mythologized by later generations.

After being mythologized, Zhuge Liang is an all-round talent who is proficient in astronomy, geography, astrology, divination, etc., for such a person, he will definitely be able to slow down the development trend of the world in some way, which is the so-called "heavenly machine".

According to this understanding, it can be concluded that Zhuge Liang's six expeditions to Qishan and Wei were not ultimately for success (because he already knew that it was impossible to succeed, and the situation of the Three Kingdoms could not be broken in his hands), but because it was to repay Liu Bei's love for the three visits and the trust of the White Emperor Chengtuo. As the old saying goes: "A soldier dies for his confidant", and that's it.

After the above understanding, it can be concluded that Zhuge Liang's thoughts: "It is impossible to succeed in defeating Wei, winning here will inevitably defeat the other side, Wei Yan's strategy is very good, but Wei Yan is only a mortal after all, he only knows it but does not know why", because Zhuge Liang has seen through all the laws of development, so he will not agree with Wei Yan's strategy.

The second type, the mortal Zhuge Liang in history.

For the mortal Zhuge to disturb Xiaoliang, it is much simpler, we can start with Zhuge Liang's own personality and behavior habits. Later generations commented that Zhuge Liang "is cautious in handling major matters and cautious in his life"; Sima Yi's evaluation of Zhuge Liang: "Zhuge Liang has been cautious all his life, resourceful and less decisive."

We can believe that Sima Yi's assessment is more convincing, because as relative enemies, they may be the ones who know each other best.

From the above comments, it can be concluded that Zhuge Liang is a very cautious person, and every decision will be considered in detail, Wei Yan's strategy may have his uniqueness, but in Zhuge Liang's opinion, the risk component is too big, so he will not use Wei Yan's strategy.

In the end, the development of history has its own set of laws, and the judgment of the past in the future is itself an act of speculation, and it is not possible to guarantee who is right and who is wrong. In the future, we must ensure our own objectivity, and we cannot change what has already happened, so no matter how thorough and complete our theory is, it is impossible to transcend the laws of history, because it is there, and no matter how we operate, it will not increase or decrease, let alone change in the slightest.

For history, we are spectators and actors, watching others and acting ourselves at the same time. really responded to the poem "I don't know the true face of Lushan, only because I am in this mountain".

The probability of the success of Wei Yan's Meridian Valley plan is very small, so let's analyze the situation of both sides first.

Favorable factors. From the perspective of the strategic situation, Chang'an is very important to Guanzhong, Chang'an, Guanzhong will be cut off at the waist, at this time Zhuge Liang's chances of winning are greater, just like fighting a snake to hit seven inches. Wei Yan has to face the Chang'an guard general Cao Wei's second generation of officials - Xiahou Nan, Xiahou Nan is not very capable, relying on the relationship between his father Xiahou Tang and Cao Cao, married Cao Cao's daughter, and reluctantly became a national uncle, but he has no real ability, and it is Cao Wei's big mistake to sit in Chang'an by him.

Unfavorable factors. Meridian Valley has been abandoned for many years, and whether Wei Yan can successfully get out of this dangerous road is a big question. Although the Chang'an defender is a rice bucket, there should be a lot of garrisons, Wei Yan proposed a surprise attack on Chang'an with 5,000 people, I don't know if he can capture Chang'an?

Even if Chang'an is broken, how can he face Cao Wei's next counterattack? Unless Zhuge Liang quickly takes Guanzhong and urgently goes to aid Chang'an, it will be difficult to hold it. In addition, there are problems such as the transportation of grain and grass.

To put it simply, for the Meridian Valley strategy to be successful, the following conditions must be met:

Wei Yan's 5,000 men could march to Chang'an in ten days (by the way: when Cao Zhen was on his expedition to the west, the army horses walked in the Meridian Valley for a month). Chang'an Xiahou Mao was completely undefended, and as soon as he heard that the Shu army was coming, he immediately fled without choosing to hold on behind closed doors - it is impossible for you to march in a hurry with siege equipment.

This sneak attack maintained zero leakage of information, which completely deafed the Guanzhong and Nanyang sides of the Wei State. Xiahou Mao Er fled and left enough food for 5,000 people in Shu Han. Zhuge Liang transported all the follow-up troops and grain and grass to Chang'an within 20 days.

The conditions are indispensable, otherwise, Wei Yan's 5,000 people will be finished, and if Chang'an is conquered, it will be eaten by Wei State in turn.

From this aspect, it can be judged that Meridian Valley is indeed a miracle move, but the probability of success is not great at all. The odds of success are slim to none. When the troops came out of the Meridian Valley, the Wei State was not only helpless, but it was also possible to encircle and annihilate 10,000 young and strong Shu Han, and Zhuge Liang had less than 10,000 people, how much capital could he have to compete with the main force of the Wei army with Cao Rui personally in charge?

The probability is very small, the situation at that time is already very serious, it is almost impossible to win, the time, the place, and the people are not advantageous.

The probability of success is relatively large, because he is a very far-sighted and very thoughtful person, so this plan is also very perfect.

The success rate may only be 30%, because there are still many uncontrollable factors, and secondly, it will also have a certain impact.

Because Zhuge Liang felt that this plan was too risky, and a little carelessness would be very unfavorable to the Shu army. He has always been cautious in using soldiers, and he doesn't dare to try it without being completely sure, so he doesn't dare to let Wei Yan try.

I can't afford it, Wei Yan's plan is too risky, Zhuge Liang is afraid of failure, and Shu can't afford such a loss.

Zhuge Liang disagreed, Wei Yan's Meridian Valley plot, this is because he simply felt that this plan could not succeed, so he could not give away thousands of lives in vain.

Reluctantly, there was a lack of troops in the later period of the Shu Kingdom, even if it was a direct loss of thousands of people, Zhuge Liang felt distressed.

Because Zhuge Liang thought that the feasibility of this plan was too low, and a few thousand people couldn't defeat Chang'an, he didn't want to waste limited resources.

Because Zhuge Liang thinks that the situation is different, it can't be used at will, and it must look at the actual situation, so it is not.

Because the plan of Meridian Valley is very risky, if there is a little carelessness, then this Northern Expedition will definitely fail.

Because he believes that the risk of this strategy is too high, not only the success rate is extremely low, but the pressure to bear after failure is also extremely high.