What would happen if Wei Yan s Meridian Valley plan succeeded?

Success, it's not better.

Let's talk about the problem of Wei Yan'an first - Chang'an, as the five capitals of Wei State, its importance and vigilance are no less than the current Zhangjiakou, even if Wei Yan captures Chang'an, it is impossible for the army to be smooth sailing in the short term (Cao Wei Chongzhen surrendered without resistance at all), or the grain and grass are burned, or the street battles and meticulous work in the city, or the Wei army is constantly harassing outside the city.

What's even worse is that as soon as Chang'an is lost, the main force of the Wei army's ** military region will inevitably advance westward to capture, and the speed of the Wei army is already faster than that of the Shu army (Xiahou Yuan and Sima Yi are examples), without fighting, Wei Yan can be starved to death just by besieging the city (don't expect that there will be a heads-up in the romance).

Some people will say that what if Wei Yan goes further and occupies Tongguan?

Since Ma Chao raised his troops, Tongguan has been Cao Wei's last barrier to Guanzhong, and the vigilance is higher than that of Chang'an. And Wei Yan's five thousand people ......Even if you don't lose a single one, you have to leave some troops to occupy Chang'an, right? The offensive force was less, and Tongguan could not be defeated (the poor siege ability of the Shu army was obvious to all); There were more troops, and Chang'an was given to the Wei army in Guanzhong in vain.

The Wei army in Guanzhong was empty, but not to the point that there was no one.

Some people may naively think that the Wei army is frightened because of the surrender of the three counties of Guanzhong, or that the people of Guanzhong are ...... to the Shu armyI can only hehe in this regard: the three counties surrendered because the Wei army was not well garrisoned and knew that they could not fight. Unbelief?

Look at the next Shu army to fight Longyou County, too guarded You Chu has soldiers, resolutely resists, just does not surrender, Zhuge Liang gnaws until Ma Tan's soldiers are defeated. Even if the three counties that surrendered, Cao Zhen arrived later to replenish the garrison soldiers, and they never surrendered to Shu again.

The people of Guanzhong? Do you really think that the Shu army is all angels? At that time, the people were who gave food to whom, and even the news of Zhuge Liang's death and the retreat of the Shu army was told to Sima Yi by these people. The big man has died a long time ago, what else is yy.

Chang'an is just a city, not a switch in Guanzhong; From Chibi to Dingjun Mountain to Fancheng, when did the Wei army not experience the test of life and death? Have you ever seen this Wei army in the Central Plains who was so scared that he was scared? Instead of considering the enemy from a practical point of view, but expecting victory through one's own brain fantasy, defeat is assured!

So on the whole, Wei Yan's army had more than enough raids, insufficient defense, and was overstretched; The Shu army as a whole gave up the danger of the mountains and used its national strength to fight city battles and field battles with the Wei army, which was to attack the enemy's strengths with their own shortcomings and take the way to death. Historically, unless a weak country is facing the disaster of national destruction, there is no example of [desperate to go deep into the enemy's territory].

If it succeeds, it will take Chang'an directly and enter the hinterland of Wei, and it may dominate the world! But Kong Ming was cautious and did not adopt it!

Because Zhuge Liang was prejudiced against Wei Yan.

Comprehensive ** analysis, Wei Yan's Meridian Valley conspiracy, is it possible to succeed in the end?

The probability of the success of Wei Yan's Meridian Valley plan is very small, so let's analyze the situation of both sides first.

Favorable factors. From the perspective of the strategic situation, Chang'an is very important to Guanzhong, Chang'an, Guanzhong will be cut off at the waist, at this time Zhuge Liang's chances of winning are greater, just like fighting a snake to hit seven inches. Wei Yan has to face the Chang'an guard general Cao Wei's second generation of officials - Xiahou Nan, Xiahou Nan is not very capable, relying on the relationship between his father Xiahou Tang and Cao Cao, married Cao Cao's daughter, and reluctantly became a national uncle, but he has no real ability, and it is Cao Wei's big mistake to sit in Chang'an by him.

Unfavorable factors. Meridian Valley has been abandoned for many years, and whether Wei Yan can successfully get out of this dangerous road is a big question. Although the Chang'an defender is a rice bucket, there should be a lot of garrisons, Wei Yan proposed a surprise attack on Chang'an with 5,000 people, I don't know if he can capture Chang'an?

Even if Chang'an is broken, how can he face Cao Wei's next counterattack? Unless Zhuge Liang quickly takes Guanzhong and urgently goes to aid Chang'an, it will be difficult to hold it. In addition, there are problems such as the transportation of grain and grass.

To put it simply, for the Meridian Valley strategy to be successful, the following conditions must be met:

Wei Yan's 5,000 men could march to Chang'an in ten days (by the way: when Cao Zhen was on his expedition to the west, the army horses walked in the Meridian Valley for a month). Chang'an Xiahou Mao was completely undefended, and as soon as he heard that the Shu army was coming, he immediately fled without choosing to hold on behind closed doors - it is impossible for you to march in a hurry with siege equipment.

This sneak attack maintained zero leakage of information, which completely deafed the Guanzhong and Nanyang sides of the Wei State. Xiahou Mao Er fled and left enough food for 5,000 people in Shu Han. Zhuge Liang transported all the follow-up troops and grain and grass to Chang'an within 20 days.

The conditions are indispensable, otherwise, Wei Yan's 5,000 people will be finished, and if Chang'an is conquered, it will be eaten by Wei State in turn.

From this aspect, it can be judged that Meridian Valley is indeed a miracle move, but the probability of success is not great at all. The odds of success are slim to none. When the troops came out of the Meridian Valley, the Wei State was not only helpless, but it was also possible to encircle and annihilate 10,000 young and strong Shu Han, and Zhuge Liang had less than 10,000 people, how much capital could he have to compete with the main force of the Wei army with Cao Rui personally in charge?

The probability is very small, the situation at that time is already very serious, it is almost impossible to win, the time, the place, and the people are not advantageous.

The probability of success is relatively large, because he is a very far-sighted and very thoughtful person, so this plan is also very perfect.

The success rate may only be 30%, because there are still many uncontrollable factors, and secondly, it will also have a certain impact.

1. There are two versions of the Meridian Valley conspiracy: "Wei Luo" records that Wei Yan took 5,000 light horsemen out of the Meridian Valley to take Chang'an. This version is quite unviable.

2. Speaking of which, what is the probability of success of the Meridian Valley Scheme? I don't think it's very successful to travel by land. First, combined with the terrain, Meridian Valley is a dangerous road, and it is a question whether Wei Yan can come out with five thousand elite soldiers.

Even if they do, it's a question of how many people are left.

3. There is also the alliance of Wu and Shu, and Wu will also send troops on the eastern front to cooperate with Shu's actions, so that Wei will be in a situation of fighting on two fronts as soon as possible, so that the strength of the Wei army will be dispersed, and the possibility of the success of the Meridian Valley plot will also increase.

4. This strategy was too idealistic and subjective, and even the escape route of the Wei army commander was planned for him. Don't ** too much, now let's take a look. Wei Yan led 5,000 soldiers and horses, brought food and set off from the Meridian Valley, there are two possibilities, one is to go, and the other is not to go.

5. This plan is the famous "Meridian Valley Conspiracy" in history. The person who proposed it was Wei Yan. At that time, Wei Yan proposed this strategy, which gave Zhuge Liang a new understanding of him.

6. So the two countries have not attacked each other. And many people also said that if Zhuge Liang adopted Wei Yan's Meridian Valley strategy and then let Wu cooperate with the army, it would be very likely to successfully eliminate Wei.

Wei Yan's meridian valley conspiracy is feasible, butIt's too dangerous. Regarding Wei Yan's "meridian road", Zhuge Liang thought that this plan was too dangerous, so he abandoned it. Zhuge Liang was cautious in his use of troops in his life, and there were basically no dangerous tricks except for the "empty city plan", and the empty city plan was still forced to be helpless.

1. Zhuge Liang seems to be one of the roads that communicate Hanzhong and are related to which one of the roads in the middle of the road, compared with Chencang Road, Bao Slope Road and Fu Luo Road, Meridian Road has a significant feature - it is difficult to walk. After all, the difficulty of the Shu Dao is more difficult than that of the Qingtian, and it is not easy to cultivate the Meridian Dao, let alone the Three Kingdoms period hundreds of years later. Therefore, Zhuge Liang thought that it was uncertain and perhaps impossible to cross the Meridian Valley to reach Chang'an in ten days.

2. In the final analysis, fighting a war is about national strength. The founding of Shu Han was not long, and the domestic economic construction was definitely inferior to Cao Wei's, and secondly, the soldiers and horses did not move the grain and grass first, and the supply was the lifeline for the front-line combat troops, and it was very dangerous if the supply was not timely. It was already very difficult for the Shu army to go out of Shu to fight and the food supply was very difficult, and it was very dangerous for the surprise attack troops to have no sound supplies.

3, Zhuge Liang knows very well that Cao Wei has been operating the Guanzhong region for a long time, and it is not very realistic to want to win Guanzhong in a battle or a surprise attack, and it is prudent to fight steadily. Later events also confirmed Zhuge Liang's idea, Chen Cang was easy to defend and difficult to attack, and once caused the Shu army to be difficult to advance in the Northern Expedition of the Shu army.

4. For the Northern Expedition to Cao Wei, the revival of the Han Dynasty, and the return of the old capital, Zhuge Liang had his own plans and plans. That is, first take Longyou, then take Guanzhong, and even Wu Wei. It can be said that this is the guiding ideology of Zhuge Liang's follow-up Northern Expedition, since the major policy and strategy have been determined, the next step is to carefully prepare for the implementation of the plan.

Zhuge Liang's first Northern Expedition had actually realized the strategy of taking Longyou first, but unfortunately Ma Tan's loss of the street pavilion led to a failure.

It should not be feasible, because from Bashu to Guanzhong, there is a long Qinling Ridge in between, and it is this Qinling Mountains that isolates Cao Wei of Shu Han, whether it is the Northern Expedition of Shu Han or Cao Wei's southward movement It is a natural barrier, and because of this barrier, there are only a few routes that can be entered.

Let's talk about the Meridian Valley, the Meridian Valley is longitudinal from north to south, about 300 miles long, the north is called "Zikou", the south is called "Wukou", the Meridian Valley is very dangerous to answer the state well, there are countless plank roads, the path is bad, the mountain is steep, it can be imagined. This strategy was so idealistic and subjective that even the escape route of the Wei army commander was clearly mapped for him.

As long as the enemy sets up an ambush in the Meridian Valley, it will only be slaughtered by others, so I guess Wei Yan would have ended up the same if he had sent troops to the Meridian Valley. First of all, the Meridian Valley, longitudinal from north to south, is about 330 kilometers long, the Meridian Valley is precipitous, there are countless plank roads, just this more than 300 kilometers of distance, a month to walk over is short.