What is the future development trend of real estate?

Further differentiation of real estate ** is inevitable. As mentioned above, the total number of dwellings under construction is high, even if considered statically, enough for all potential new townspeople in the future.

So, there is definitely a surplus in some areas.

However, some regions, cities, and plates may still be in demand because of factors such as better economy, mature supporting facilities, good industries, good living environment, and insufficient conditions.

China's per capita urban living area has basically caught up with developed countries, and it will increase in the future. There has been a lack of authoritative data on how many houses there are in China's cities and towns, how many houses there are, and what is the living space per capita.

A few years ago, I did a data collation and analysis of about 40,000 words, and at that time I concluded that China was about to catch up with the per capita living area of developed countries.

In October 2020, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, published a speech on People's Daily Online. In 2019, the per capita housing construction area of urban residents and rural residents reached square meters, and the per capita housing construction area of rural residents reached square meters.

The future development trend of real estate is the digitalization and digitization of real estate.

Intelligent interconnection and digitalization accelerate the rapid rise of technology real estate. Digitalization and digital economy have been integrated into all walks of life, and real estate is also facing the empowerment of digitalization. In the future, the financial attributes of China's real estate will gradually weaken, the demand for housing will gradually return to the essence of residence, and the changes in supply and demand led by fundamentals such as economic growth and population flow will be the main driving factors for the future real estate market.

Analysis of the current situation of real estate

In 2021, the real estate market was generally stable, and the overall transaction volume of the new housing market and the second-hand housing market was comparable to this year. The financial boost dividend on real estate has gradually weakened, and the era of general housing price inflation is gone. The saturation of housing prices is a necessity of current events.

From a structural point of view, the market differentiation between regions will further increase, and housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta cities will remain moderate in 2021, and the Pearl River Delta market may be affected by regulation and control, but the market fundamentals are still strong. Other non-core city markets are more likely to cool down.

The integration of photovoltaic building has given birth to the integrated development of dual-carbon real estate. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development promotes the integration of photovoltaic buildings, and the decoration of external and internal windows and the configuration of household appliances all reflect low carbon, all of which revolve around carbon peaking, and dual carbon has evolved into a catalyst for the real estate industry revolution and promotes the innovation and integration of the real estate industry.

Supply:

-- The area of new real estate construction started declined

From 2010 to 2019, China's real estate industry fluctuated in the area of new construction started, and its growth rate remained above 10% until 2012. In 2020, the area of new housing construction across the country was 10,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease.

From January to November 2021, China's real estate construction area was 100 million square meters, a year-on-year decline.

-- The area of real estate construction has increased

From 2010 to 2020, China's real estate development and construction area maintained continuous growth, and the overall growth rate slowed down significantly. In 2020, the national housing construction area was 10,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase.

From January to November 2021, China's real estate construction area was 100 million square meters, a year-on-year increase.

-- The area of real estate completions has declined as a whole

From 2010 to 2020, the area of real estate completions in China showed a trend of first rising and then declining. In 2020, the area of housing completions nationwide was 10,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease.

From January to November 2021, China's real estate completion area reached 100 million square meters, a year-on-year increase.

Requirements:

-- The sales area of commercial housing is on the rise

From 2010 to 2020, the sales area of commercial housing in China showed a fluctuating upward trend, but the growth rate has slowed down since 2017. In 2019, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 100 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease; In 2020, the sales area of commercial housing in the country will be 100 million square meters, which will increase.

From January to November 2021, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 100 million square meters, a year-on-year increase.

The sales-to-completion ratio has risen, and supply exceeds demand

From 2010 to 2021, China's real estate sales-to-completion ratio showed an upward trend. In 2020, China's real estate sales-to-completion ratio reached January-November of this year, and China's real estate sales-to-completion ratio reached even more, China's real estate market sales are still hot, and the increase in sales-to-completion ratio reflects the country's control over the real estate industry and the imbalance between supply and demand in the real estate market to a certain extent.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' answer to reporters' questions on the national economic situation, since 2021, all localities have adhered to the simultaneous purchase and rent, and implemented policies according to the city to promote the healthy development of the real estate market, and the results have gradually emerged, and the momentum of real estate in some cities has been suppressed. From a national point of view, the real estate market is generally stable, and the sales and investment of commercial housing have maintained growth, and the growth trend has slowed down. Affected by multiple factors such as population outflow and economic development difficulties in some cities, the downward pressure on the real estate market has increased, and the debt risk of some real estate enterprises that relied on high debt to expand blindly in the early stage has risen.

Despite these problems, there are still many favorable conditions for the stable development of the real estate industry, such as market adjustments, market participants are more rational, and the long-term mechanism of real estate is gradually improving.

The above data refers to the Prospective Industry Research InstituteAnalysis Report on Market Demand and Investment Strategic Planning in China's Real Estate Industry

Real estate is divided into three categories according to function: residential real estate, commercial real estate, and industrial real estate.

1. Residential real estate, the purpose of the house built, is to be used as a residential or mainly residential.

For example, the majority of houses in China's communities will be used by the owners to live.

2. Commercial real estate, housing is a real estate project for commercial purposes, so it is also known as commercial real estate.

Commercial real estate generally refers to the form of real estate used for various retail, wholesale, catering, entertainment, fitness, leisure and other business purposes, which is different from ordinary residential, apartment, villa and other real estate forms in terms of business model, function and use.

This type of real estate mainly includes shopping malls, hotels, office buildings, etc.

3. Industrial real estate.

The buildings are used for industrial real estate projects with industrial production functions as the main purpose. Such real estate projects mainly include industrial parks, industrial parks, etc.

Extended Materials. In addition to the different uses of real estate projects, one of the differences between residential real estate, industrial real estate, and commercial real estate is the different term of property rights.

The property rights of residential real estate and industrial land are 50 years, and the property rights of commercial land are 40 years.

In addition, the location of industrial real estate is generally a relatively remote place. Residential and commercial properties, especially commercial properties, will choose the city center with a large volume and convenient transportation.

The contraction trend of the real estate industry has long been formed, but the epidemic and the economic downturn have accelerated the contraction process, which is not surprising, and this downward trend is completely irreversible, mainly based on the following four reasons:

First, the process of urbanization will slow down. China's urbanization level is already relatively high, and the growth rate will be significantly reduced in the future. The urbanization rate is expected to grow from the current 60% to 70%, the increase in the urbanization rate is facing a ceiling phenomenon, the growth rate of the urban population is slowing down, and it is impossible to grow by a few percentage points per year in the future, and the demographic dividend of urbanization will gradually disappear.

Second, the total amount of old city renovation will be reduced. After more than 20 years of urban construction, the situation of "large-scale demolition and large-scale construction" of the old city will gradually disappear.

Third, the quality of housing has been greatly improved. In 2012, the then Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a residential quality standard, which regulated the construction quality of various commercial houses such as residential and office buildings, and raised the safety standard period of about 30 years for commercial housing to at least 70 years, or even 100 years. This means that after 2010, all kinds of commercial houses newly built in the city can theoretically be used for 70 100 years, which means that the amount of depreciation and renovation in the old city will be greatly reduced.

Assuming that a city has a housing stock of 1 billion cubic metres and a depreciation period of 30 years, about 30 million square metres of houses are demolished and rebuilt each year, and if the depreciation period becomes 100 years, the average number of houses rebuilt per year is just over 10 million square metres.

Fourth, the housing market has basically balanced its sales, and the per capita housing area will not increase by a large margin. At present, China's per capita housing area has reached 50 square meters, and the requirements for improving the housing of families in difficulty have gradually decreased. In the future, although there will continue to be a demand for housing improvement, it is only partial and structural, and on the whole, the phenomenon of insufficient housing area per capita will gradually disappear.

Judging from the above four new situations, in the long cycle of the next ten years, the era of China's real estate market "overwhelming" the completion and sale of 16.7 billion square meters of new houses every year has basically come to an end. The fact that new home sales in 2018 are only up compared to 2017 is a clear sign. This is a significant decline compared to the average annual growth rate of 25% from 1998 to 2008, the average annual growth rate from 2008 to 2012 to 15%, and the average annual growth rate from 2012 to 2018 of 6% to 7%.

In other words, in the next decade or so, the sales volume of new homes in the real estate industry will not increase from 1.7 billion square meters to 1.7 billion square meters, but will shrink year by year.

The future development of real estate is a matter of concern to every real estate person, so what is the future development trend of real estate?

1. The profit margin of the real estate development industry is gradually decreasing and tending to a reasonable level.

In the past 10 years, Fang Qiaoyao real estate is on the rise. Due to factors such as housing reform, rapid GDP growth, loose monetary policy, rapid urbanization process and high dependence of local governments on land finance, the profit margin of the real estate industry has grown rapidly (no industry can bear the financing cost of more than 20% interest rate level like the real estate industry), far exceeding the average profit level of other industries.

2. Actively adopt new materials and technologies to vigorously develop green buildings.

Encouraging the application of new technologies and materials for building energy conservation and vigorously developing green buildings is the focus of the country's next development. For example, new types of glass such as insulating glass with strong thermal insulation and airtightness of doors and windows of housing buildings and thermal radiation plating synovial glass are adopted; Application of high-quality new wall materials; Ground source heat pump technology that uses underground heat energy to maintain a constant temperature in a room; and the development and utilization of solar energy technology according to local conditions.

3. The real estate development model emphasizes professional segmentation and cooperation.

At present, most of the domestic real estate developers are often both businessmen and developers, and the project development is mainly dependent on financing channels such as banks and purchase funds in addition to self-raising. Some developers also have their own design units, marketing companies, construction contracting teams and property companies.

First, although the labor force has begun to decrease, the size of the labor force in recent years is still about 900 million;

Second, the aging society is coming, but the pension gap is only a few regions under pressure;

Third, the long-term growth space of the real estate industry has been capped by negative population growth, but the replacement of old and new and the improvement of demand are still opportunities.

So what impact does it have on our lives as individuals?

I'll try to analyze it.

Employment pressures persist in 1. 5 to 10 years. Since the decline in the labor force will take a long time to become apparent, short-term employment pressures remain. But long-term employment opportunities will increase.

Second, the short-term pension problem is not big. Although pension accounts in some areas are currently struggling to make ends meet, the overall pressure is bearable. Due to the next few years, the retirement of the elderly has increased significantly, the demand for pension will increase greatly, although the state has formulated a policy of state-owned enterprise equity transfer pension holding, but can not fundamentally solve the problem.

3. Real estate returns to housing attributes, but improved housing means diversified demand, and diversified demand means increased profits. At the same time, the change of the old appearance of cities and rural areas, that is, the transformation of shantytowns and the construction of new rural areas, has become a rare opportunity for real estate to have bright spots.

That's the impact it can have on everyone. Personally, what do we need to do about it?

First, children's education should be more creative and avoid being eliminated by machines. In the future, the state will definitely adjust the industrial structure with the change in the size of the labor force and population, and use a small labor force to complete more work. What does this mean?

This means that simple, repetitive, easily replaceable tasks will be done by machines. That is to say, the quality of people can be improved in order to avoid being replaced by machines.

There are more opportunities for original jobs, jobs with a high degree of professionalism, and jobs with communication services. In short, if your child's creativity can grow in practice and produce more valuable results, then they will not be replaced.

Second, start to consider occupational annuity and commercial pension supplements in case of contingencies. If you can, add some pension projects to yourself. On the one hand, the labor force population is declining, and there are fewer people paying social security, and on the other hand, the aging population is serious, and there are more people receiving pensions.

The problem of pension gap is a big problem in the future, and it is best to plan ahead and give yourself more choices.

3. Don't treat a house as an investment anymore, and consider buying a house if you want to live better. The current stock of housing is very large, and it will take a long time to digest it. According to the data at the beginning of this year, the stock housing in Zhengzhou in southern Zhengzhou has been destocked for more than three years.

I don't know what this data looks like now, I don't know what the whole country looks like, but it's not optimistic overall.

China has embarked on a path of rapid development for 40 years, and from a long-term historical perspective, fluctuations and cycles are the most probable.