What are the characteristics of risk identification and what are the bases for risk identification

Characteristics and principles of risk identification.

1) Characteristics of risk identification.

Risk identification has the following characteristics:

1) Individuality. No risk is different from any other, and no two risks are exactly the same.

2) Subjectivity. Risk identification is done by people, and due to differences in personal professional knowledge level (including knowledge of risk management) and practical experience, the results of the same risk identified by different people will be quite different.

3) Complexity. There are many risk factors and risk events involved in construction projects, and the relationship is complex and mutually influential, and 4) uncertainty. This feature can be said to be the result of subjectivity and complexity.

From the definition of risk, it can be seen that risk identification is also a risk in itself. Therefore, avoiding and reducing the risks identified by risks is also part of risk management.

2) Principles of risk identification.

1) From coarse to fine, from fine to coarse.

2) Strictly define the connotation of risk and consider the correlation between risk factors.

3) Suspect first, then rule out.

4) Equal emphasis on exclusion and confirmation. Risks that cannot be excluded but cannot be confirmed with certainty are considered as confirmed.

5) If necessary, experimental demonstration can be made.

Safety evaluation is the process of using system engineering methods to comprehensively evaluate and improve the possible dangers and possible consequences of proposed or existing projects and systems, and put forward corresponding safety countermeasures according to the size of the accident risk that may be caused, so as to achieve the safety of the project and system. The safety assessment should run through all stages of the entire life cycle of the project and system, including the design, construction, operation and decommissioning. The safety evaluation of projects and systems is not only an important guarantee for enterprises and production and business operation units to do a good job in safety production, but also the need for safety supervision and management.

Risk identification is based on risk management plans, project plans, risk classifications, and historical data.

1. Risk management plan: It is the process of planning and designing how to carry out project risk management. The process involves defining the action plan for risk management of the project organization and its members, and deciding on the appropriate risk management approach, which is usually developed through a planning meeting.

In the plan, there should be a detailed description of risk identification, risk analysis and assessment, and risk response throughout the project life cycle.

2. Project planning: project objectives, tasks, scope, schedule, quality, cost, resources and other plans and programs related to the project process are the basis for project risk identification, especially the various assumptions and constraints in these plans, the relevant interests of different participants in the project, and the expectations of the project objectives.

3. Risk classification: Clear and reasonable risk classification can avoid misjudgment and omission in risk identification, and is conducive to highlighting important factors and discovering those risk sources that have a serious impact on the realization of project objectives.

4. Historical data: Historical data of previous related projects or similar projects (such as project risk response plans, risk factors or assessment data, etc.), other statistical and published materials (such as commercial databases, academic research results, industry standards, books, newspapers, etc.) are important information for risk identification.

Risk identification refers to the systematic and continuous understanding of various risks faced by people and the analysis of potential causes of risk accidents before the occurrence of risk accidents. The risk identification process consists of two parts: perceiving and analyzing risks.

Perceived risk: that is, to understand the objective existence of various risks, is the basis of risk identification, only through the perception of risk, can we further analyze on this basis, find the conditions and factors that lead to the occurrence of risk accidents, and make risk management decision-making services for the formulation of risk treatment plans.

There are several methods for risk identification: 1. Production process analysis; 2. Risk investigation and enumeration; 3. Asset status analysis; 4. Decomposition analysis method; 5. Error tree analysis method.

Supplementary expansion: 1. Production process analysis: refers to the process of continuous processing in sequence through certain equipment from raw material input to finished product output in the production process. This method emphasizes the investigation and analysis of each stage and link according to different processes to find out the reasons for the existence of risks.

2. Risk investigation and enumeration: The risk management personnel list the risks that the enterprise and unit may face one by one, and classify them according to different standards. The scope of the experts should be as broad as possible and representative.

The general classification criteria are: direct or indirect, financial or non-financial, political or economic, etc.

3. Asset analysis: that is, according to the financial information of the company's balance sheet, profit and loss statement, property catalog, etc., the risk management personnel analyze the financial status of the enterprise through actual investigation and research and find its potential risks.

4. Decomposition analysis method: Decomposition analysis method refers to the decomposition of a complex thing into a number of relatively simple things, the decomposition of the large system into specific components, and the analysis of possible risks and potential losses from it.

5. Error tree analysis method: The error tree analysis method is to investigate the situation of various mistakes before the loss occurs, or to decompose and analyze the causes of various accidents, and specifically determine which mistakes are most likely to lead to the risk of loss.

There are other methods of risk identification, such as environmental analysis, insurance investigation, accident analysis, etc. Businesses should use a variety of approaches interactively when identifying risks.

1.Brainstorming method.

Format: All members of the team take turns to present ideas and ideas in a meeting format.

Key points: The atmosphere of the meeting should be harmonious and enthusiastic;

We do not comment or respond to the statements of others.

2.Delphi Method.

Format: The project risk team selects relevant experts, collects expert opinions by means of anonymous correspondence, and then anonymously feeds back to the experts after comprehensive collation, and solicits opinions again. This is repeated several times until the expert opinion is unanimous.

Takeaways: The information provided to experts should be as adequate as possible;

The selected experts should be authoritative and representative;

Maintain anonymity and ensure that experts give their opinions independently.

3.Scenario analysis.

Format: According to the diversity of development trends, through the systematic analysis of related problems inside and outside the system, a variety of possible future prospects are designed, and then the development trend of the system is described from beginning to end in a way similar to writing a movie script.

Key points: Identify the influencing factors that affect the theme;

PEST analysis and SWOT analysis matrix can be used in the analysis process.

4.Checklist method.

Format: Compare the potential risks of the project against the existing checklist.

Location: The checklist may include: reasons why previous projects have succeeded or failed; project scope, cost, quality, schedule, procurement and contract, human resources and communication, etc.; Project product or service description; Project Management Member Skills; resources available for the project, etc.

5.Flowchart method.

Form: Establish a general flow chart and sub-flow chart of the project, analyze the potential risks of each link, and compare the project progress at any time during the progress of the project.

Important: The WBS method (Work Breakdown Structure) can be used.

Perceived risk.

Method Step 1:

1. Model perception. Judgment or categorization is used to distinguish between the nature of actual and potential risks, using Cunningham (1967) to first propose a two-factor model, that is, the harmfulness of the outcome of the uncertainty of risk = loss. The two-factor model has become the mainstream model of perceived risk research.

Perceive risk from the model.

Method Step 2:

2. Brainstorm perception. Suppose you are in the same condition to diverge your thinking, to feel and experience the risks that will arise in your own situation. The aim is to generate new ideas or stimulate innovative ideas, as well as the perception of risk in the face of changing roles.

Analyze the risks. Method Step 1:

SWOT analysis: SWOT analysis is a scientific analysis method used to determine the competitive advantages, competitive disadvantages, opportunities and threats of the company, so as to organically combine the company's strategy with the company's internal resources and external environment. It is a risk analysis that can use SWOT to analyze the situation of your company and use your advantages to find a breakthrough.

Method Step 2:

Expert investigation method: look for an experienced or knowledgeable team of experts, and analyze according to their own enterprise development and product development. With the support of the company's internal statistics and actual data, we find out the company's potential risks and their solutions.

Method Step 3:

Delphi method: It is to use back-to-back communication to solicit the opinions of the members of the expert group, and after several rounds of consultation, the opinions of the expert group tend to be concentrated, and finally make a conclusion that is in line with the future development trend of the market. This can make it more obvious and focused, and brainstorm where the risk points are.

Method Step 4:

Historical information verification method: call the historical data information related to the business, including the original data. A risk analysis method that looks for risk points from scratch and analyzes other risks that may arise, so as to make corresponding solutions.

This method uses more manpower and material resources.

1. Environmental risks.

It refers to the economic risks brought about by unexpected changes in the external environment, which disrupt the planned production and business plans of enterprises.

The factors that cause environmental risks are:

1) Changes in national macroeconomic policies expose enterprises to unexpected risk losses.

2) The risk of sanctioning the production and business activities of the enterprise in violation of the requirements of the external environment.

3) Changes in social culture and moral customs hinder the production and operation activities of enterprises, resulting in difficulties in business operations.

2. Market risk.

Refers to the economic risks caused by unexpected changes in the structure of the market that prevent the company from achieving its business objectives in accordance with the established strategy.

The main factors that lead to market risk are:

1) Due to the failure of market demand**, companies are unable to accurately grasp the changes in consumer preferences.

2) New changes have taken place in the competitive landscape, such as the entry of new competitors and corporate risks.

3) Market supply and demand have changed.

3. Technical risks.

This refers to the unexpected change in the risk of innovation failure due to technical, commercial or market factors in the process of technological innovation.

The main reasons for this are:

1) Fundamental improvements have been made in the technical process.

2) New alternative technologies or products have emerged.

3) The technology cannot be effectively commercialized.

4. Production risk.

Refers to the risks arising from the production plan that cannot be fulfilled by the enterprise at a predetermined cost.

The main factors that contribute to this risk are:

1) Unexpected interruptions in the production process.

2) The production plan fails, resulting in a chaotic production process.

5. Financial risk.

The risk of the enterprise caused by unexpected changes in the company's income and expenditure situation has caused financial difficulties for the company.

6. Personnel risk.

Any risk involved in the management of people in an enterprise is known as people risk.