How to look at the widely circulated list of champions of the Qing Dynasty and the list of outstandi

Ever heard of survivorship bias? This problem is a classic survivorship bias.

To put it simply, it is dangerous to demonstrate a problem by giving examples, and you can cite many examples of unsuccessful champions, or you can cite many examples of successful examples of outstanding talents, so as to contrast. However, which is better, the proportion of success among the champions or the proportion of success among the talents? If we only focus on the examples of the former that fail and compare the latter's successful examples, do we ignore the majority of the former who are more likely to succeed and the majority of the latter who are more likely to fail?

Survivorship bias often makes us only see those individuals, and ignore the larger majority, we can deduce the same as today's theory of the uselessness of reading, indeed, there are primary school students who have made a fortune with a diploma, and there are also those who have a doctorate who are useless, but in today's society, is it more likely to make a fortune by reading to primary school, or is it easier to get rich by reading a high degree? In fact, if you look at the rich list, isn't this question clear? Comparing the 1 in 10,000 chance of success among elementary school students with the 1 in 10,000 chance of failure for Ph.D. students is the question raised in this question.

Two such lists have been drawn up. The first group of lists: Fu Yichuan, Wang Shidan, Bi Yuan, Lin Zhaotang, Wang Yunjin, Liu Zizhuang, Chen Xin, Liu Fuyao, Liu Chunlin.

The second group of lists: Li Yu, Hong Sheng, Gu Yanwu, Jin Shengsi, Huang Zongxi, Wu Jingzi, Pu Songling, Hong Xiuquan, Yuan Shikai.

Today, there are undoubtedly more people who are familiar with the second set of lists than with the first set of lists. Yet, at that time, how brilliant and illustrious the people in the first list were! From the emperor to the commoners, the stars held the moon and were admired by thousands of people - because they were all the champions of the imperial examination of the Qing Dynasty.

The characters in the second group of lists are lonely, depressed, and uncared for—because they are all talented people.

In fact, this does not mean that the achievements of life are not in the examination room, this is a special era, two groups of people who stand in different teams, and it was the time when the imperial examination declined.

Until modern times, people are still proud of having taken the eight-share test, for example, Chen Duxiu and Jiang Menglin, the president of Peking University at that time, were both show-talents in the former Qing Dynasty, Chen Duxiu once asked Jiang Menglin what kind of show he was taking the test, Jiang Menglin was a strategy show, Chen Duxiu was very proud, laughed, and said that he was tested for eight-share show, which was worth more than the strategy show. Jiang Menglin hurriedly moved.

The youngest champion: Mo Xuanqing. In the fifth year of Tang Xuanzong's middle school (851 AD), Wende Township, Fengchuan County (now Fengkai County) produced a "Lingnan First Champion".

One of the youngest Jinshi in the history of China's imperial examinations: Zhu Jue.

The youngest talent: Zhang Juzheng, 12-year-old talent in the show.

In history, there are 15 people who have won the three elements.

Tang: 2 people, Cui Yuanhan and Zhang Youxin.

Song: 6 people, Sun He, Wang Zeng, Wang Zhen, Yang Zhi, Wang Yansuo, Feng Jingjin: 1 person, Meng Zong presented.

Yuan: 1 person, Wang Chongzhe.

Ming: 2 people, Huang Guan and Shang Chen.

Qing: 3 people, Wang Yubi, Qian Wei, Chen Jichang.

Extended information: Imperial Examination "Two Rules of Poetry: Deliberation" "Island (referring to Jia Island) first went to the capital to raise the teacher", which means that Jia Island originally went to Chang'an to participate in the imperial examination. In the Ming Dynasty, the imperial examination formed a complete system, which was divided into four levels: the Yuan Examination (i.e., the Tongsheng Examination), the Township Examination, the Hui Examination and the Palace Examination, the content of the examination was basically the Confucian scriptures, with the "Four Books" sentences as the title, and the format of the article was Bagu Wen, and the interpretation must be subject to Zhu Xi's "Notes on the Four Books".

In order to obtain the qualification to participate in the official imperial examination, the Qing people first had to take the children's examination, and the people who participated in the children's examination were called children, and after being admitted to the "school", they were called students (the Qing Dynasty had fuxue, prefecture and county schools). Students are disciplined by instructors (professors, scholars, instructors, and instructors) after they are "enrolled". At the beginning of the Qing Dynasty, students were still in the school palace (there were monthly classes and quarterly exams, and later became in name only), also known as sheng, commonly known as Xiucai.

This is the starting point of "fame".

In the Qing Dynasty, the admission rate of children was still relatively high, but it was useless, there was no privilege at all, that is, just knowing a few words, so there were countless children in the Qing Dynasty. The level of the second Xiucai is much higher than that of Tongsheng, and Xiucai has many privileges, such as in the Qing Dynasty, you can see officials without kneeling, family members are exempt from forced labor, exempt from taxes, etc., and there will be a special person to hold accountable and review if you violate the law, so Xiucai is still good in ancient times, but unfortunately Xiucai generally has no money, and there is no poverty alleviation and help student policy in ancient times like modern times, so there are many people who only get Xiucai in their lives, and some can't even eat. There is no way to continue the test, in historical records during the Qing Dynasty, there were 460,000 Xiucai, and Tongsheng had more than 2 million, so the probability of Xiucai in a comparison probability is.

Second, the so-called lifting people, can be described as a fantasy, too difficult, in ancient times, as long as the flowers of the people, a lifetime without worrying about food and clothing, enjoy the glory and wealth, in the Qing Dynasty recorded the entire period in the appearance of 150,000 people, less than 600 a year, then about 30%, in short, in ancient times it was very difficult.