What is Decision Analysis 40 and what is Decision Analysis

Decision analysis generally refers to the quantitative analysis method of selecting one of the decision-making processes from several possible scenarios through decision analysis techniques, such as the expectation value method or the decision tree method. It is mainly used in dynamic meteorology and other disciplines in atmospheric science.

It is a comprehensive discipline closely related to economics, mathematics, psychology and organizational behavior. Its research object is decision-making, and its research aims to help people improve the quality of decision-making and reduce the time and cost of decision-making. Therefore, decision analysis is a creative management technique.

Decision-making analysis includes the process of discovering problems, determining objectives, determining evaluation criteria, formulating programs, selecting programs, and implementing programs.

Decision analysis is generally divided into four steps: (1) forming a decision problem, including proposing a plan and determining goals; (2) judging the state of nature and its probability; (3) develop multiple feasible solutions; (4) Evaluate the plan and make a choice. Commonly used decision analysis techniques are:

Decision analysis in deterministic situations Decision analysis in risky situations, Decision analysis in uncertain situations.

2012-05-16 21:43 Blue Sky Room White Cloud Room |Level 12 The fastest career decision analysis is the leading part of career planning, and the feasibility of decision-making directly determines the success of career planning. If you want to get the most ideal career development goals, you need to carefully and completely analyze yourself, know what you want to get, and what you should get in this society in this life, which requires you to make career decisions carefully.

And only you know these best, and only you know yourself best, and formulate the most appropriate decision-making goals. I think that's career decision analysis.

Case:For example, Qin Dai said that I should choose to go to graduate school or get a job, because the environment I was in at that time was during the epidemic, and there were fewer jobs, so I thought that improving my academic qualifications was the way to solve the problem of employment.

After that, I decided that it was a graduate school entrance examination, and then I began to collect graduate school entrance examination materials, prepare for the graduate school entrance examination, and then start the examination at the end of December, and conduct an interview at the beginning of April, and finally I was successfully admitted.

How to make decisions:

1. Clarify the purpose.

Before making a decision, the first thing to do is to clarify your purpose, what results you want to achieve, think clearly about what you want from Zhaojuju, and what is most important to you.

2. Collect a large amount of relevant information.

The quantity and quality of information can affect the effectiveness of decisions. If you want to ensure the accuracy of subsequent decisions, you must pay attention to distinguishing biases, past emotions, and the information you choose must be reliable and true.

3. Look for the real problem.

Deeply analyze the problem, understand the cause and effect behind the matter, correlation, split the key links, and find the essence of the problem.

4. Identify key issues.

Decompose the key cores, filter, remove some unimportant details, and simplify the thinking model. Be clear about which elements are uncontrollable. Prioritize what's core and what's not.

5. Make a plan.

Planning is the development vision of a specific area that integrates multiple elements and perspectives. When it comes to planning, the working comrades and scholars of some ** departments will regard it as an urban and rural construction plan, and plan and construction are closely linked. In fact, this is a partial and comprehensive understanding of the concept of planning.

The method of decision analysis, decision-making is an important part of every enterprise, an enterprise without decision-making may develop very difficult, in an enterprise leadership decision-making is particularly important, decision-making is also methodical, then, what are the methods of decision-making analysis, let's learn together.

A common method for decision analysis

There are different decision-making methods for different situations.

Deterministic situation: Each regimen leads to one, and only one outcome. When the number of schemes is small, the exhaustive method can be used.

When there are a large number of schemes, the general optimization method can be used.

Stochastic condition: also known as a risk situation, in which one regimen may cause one of several outcomes, but the various outcomes are certain'Probability happens. Stochastic decisions, such as decision trees, can usually be used when some method of estimating probability is available.

method. Uncertainty: A regimen may cause one of several outcomes, but the probability of each outcome is unknown. In this case, uncertain decisions can be used, such as Laplace criterion, optimism criterion, pessimistic criterion, regret criterion, etc.

Multi-objective situations: multiple outcomes caused by a single regimen at the same time, each belonging to a different attribute or pursuing a different goal. In this case, a multi-objective decision-making approach is generally adopted. For example, the method of reducing more to less, the hierarchical sequence method, the method of directly finding all non-inferior solutions, etc.

Multi-person decision-making: There are multiple decision-makers in the same programme with different interests and different evaluations of the outcome of the programme. In this case, the countermeasure theory is adopted.

Methods such as conflict analysis, group decision-making, etc.

1. Comparative method of capital cost

The cost of capital comparison method refers to the fact that various financing methods are not considered.

In the case of volume and proportional constraints and differences in financial risk, the weighted average cost of capital for various long-term financing portfolio options based on market value is calculated.

According to the calculation results, the financing scheme with the smallest weighted average cost of capital is selected to determine the relatively optimal capital structure.

IIEarnings per shareUndifferentiated point method

The EPS indifference point method is based on the calculation of the earnings per share (EBIT) corresponding to the company's earnings per share (EPS) under different financing schemes, and compares the earnings per share of different financing options under the expected profitability level of the enterprise.

3. Comparative method of enterprise value

The optimal capital structure of a company should be one that maximizes the total value of the company, not necessarily the largest earnings per share. At the same time, the company's cost of capital must be the lowest under the capital structure with the largest total value of the company.