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China's military strength has not reached that level, and China's manufacturing power can not reach, China's current large aircraft can not be manufactured, and aircraft carriers can not be fully manufactured, etc., Australian iron ore ** is the United States instigated, then if China uses military means, it is bound to conflict with the United States, China's economy and military and the United States There is a gap, China's per capita GDP is too far from the United States, and there is a gap of 15-20 years between the military and the United States.
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At present, the vast majority of the world's maritime security is controlled by the United States, so when China rose, the US Congress complained that China enjoyed their security services for free. Therefore, instead of using military means to suppress the Australian iron ore mines of the Western system, China needs to vigorously develop its navy to guard against possible measures taken by the United States against China in the next stage, and aircraft carriers are on the agenda in response to this need.
In today's world, all the goods and currencies in circulation are under the control of the United States, including the most important oil (because of the agreement between the United States and OPEC, oil transactions are settled in dollars), so in any case, when China's national strength is not strong enough, self-protection is a priority, and it is impossible to take any military action that is unfavorable to the West.
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Although each country is eager for its own country to usher in a new development situation, each country must also maintain normal exchanges with other countries. China's iron ore import production accounts for 70% of the world's total exports, which also shows that China needs to rely on imported large mineral resources. Up to now, the total amount of iron ore imported by China has reached 1.1 billion tons, which has accounted for 80% of the total consumption.
Of the 1.1 billion tonnes of iron ore, 60% of Australia's iron ore exports to China are accounted for. Nowadays, the crazy price increase of iron ore in Australia will inevitably affect the domestic iron ore price. I think the crazy rise in the price of Australian iron ore will cause the rise of domestic iron ore.
Even if the magnitude of the rise is not obvious, we cannot stop the ** upward trend.
The first impact: iron ore ** gradually rises Since Australia's iron ore accounts for most of China's imported iron ore, this also shows that China's iron ore ** will gradually rise with the rise of Australian and Dalian iron ore. Nowadays, the relationship between China and Australia has not stopped, and China still has to import iron ore from Australia.
We can no longer avoid the gradual rise of iron ore in the country, and we can only adjust the iron ore ** by some means to avoid residents being caught off guard by iron ore**.
The second impact: China's iron ore cooperation countries have made great adjustments, although the crazy rise in the price of Australian iron ore directly affects the domestic iron ore, but China can also reverse the rise of iron ore in other ways. China's iron ore import cooperation countries are not only Australia, although the Australian Luxian Ya mineral output is very large, but we also have to choose cheap and high-quality iron ore according to the iron ore of each country.
In fact, the crazy rise in the price of Australian iron ore does not only affect China's iron ore**, it will also affect Australia's iron ore export output.
To sum up, the direct impact of the crazy rise in Australian iron ore prices is that China's iron ore has risen significantly.
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First of all, hello this friend.
Let me tell you about it, first of all, 62% of the current spot iron ore has fallen by 3% in this month, from the original $170 to the current $120, and there was a small rebound of $2 yesterday. It's all CRF CIF rates. The dry bulk market costs $18 a ton from Australia to China.
In other words, FOB** is more than 100 US dollars. This is the status quo.
Let's take a look at the ** situation, two of the big three, BHP and Rio Tinto continue to expand production in Australia, and FMG has just sold 1.5 billion bonds to expand the Pilbara mine, roughly calculated. Next year, Australia can produce about 300 million tons of iron ore, for old mines, such as Yandi and the like, the cost of mining per ton is about 50 US dollars, but for the investment in new expansion, the comprehensive cost may rise, that is to say, there are still huge profits. It is because of the existence of windfall profits that Australia may pass a carbon tax bill next year, that is, the cost of mining will be further increased.
However, compared with Brazil's Vale, Australia's freight is less than $10 cheaper, and Brazil** also intends to double the iron ore export tax. So all in all. Australian Mining continues to maintain strong competitiveness.
The general direction of China's procurement will not change in the future.
The domestic situation, now everyone is looking forward to the emergence of an inflection point. However, the inventory in the hands of most steel mills is also very high, most of them are bought by 170-180, plus there are 90 million tons of inventory in the port, so it will take time to digest these. China's economy is slowing down, steel prices are falling, real estate is tightening, construction steel is not good, and automobile steel is not good.
9 percent of high-speed rail is suspended, and special steel is not good. So now the market is sluggish. But to sum up the above.
When China and the world economy pass this period of time, I think there will be a substantial economic growth, and then steel prices and ore will return to a very stable level.
Hope it helps.
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