What are the reasons for the loss of the solar PV industry?

1 After the recession of the industry, the factory reduced production, and the capacity utilization rate did not reach the breakeven point. Such as semiconductor companies in special time periods.

2 In the early stage of the economic situation, when the economic situation was good, enterprises in the industry made a lot of investment, overcapacity, and the unit price fell, which became a burden. Such as the current maritime industry (especially dry bulk).

3 For technology-based enterprises, less orders lead to an increase in inventory, and enterprises need to fund as soon as possible. Such as the current LCD panel enterprises.

4 Due to the slow increase in the market size, too many participants, and too fierce competition in the industry, sometimes the industry bosses trigger the first war, and small enterprises have no pricing power and must fold their own battles. Such as the current flat-screen TV industry.

5. The change of business format can better meet the needs of consumers, such as stealing the business of physical bookstores. <>

Because people are in the United States, I can only provide you with some superficial views.

1.From the manufacturing side, the solar energy industry has indeed fallen into the old cycle of developing manufacturing in China.

2.The advent of the shale gas revolution will also slow down the development and adoption of renewable energy.

3.At the same time, from the policy level, the subsidy on the production side is easy to cause ** friction, and it is a stopgap measure to turn to FIT, and the most important thing is to form a technology-driven investment and growth mode, similar to the American APRA-E. ** and private capital to invest based on a comprehensive consideration of new technologies, rather than the needs of GDP or "high-tech industrial parks".

4.Academics in the United States are not very opposed to China's continued role as a "factory," because the bulk of the industry: installation, operation, and maintenance takes place in the country, and the latter is conducive to job expansion and sustainable benefits compared to the highly polluting and capital-intensive manufacturing process.

1.Inefficient power generation.

2.The cleaning issue was not resolved.

3.The electricity generated does not conform to the power frequency adopted in China.

4.Photovoltaic modules have a short lifespan and a gradual decrease in power generation efficiency over time.

Solar energy means that it can only be done when there is a sun, that is, the yin and yang poles only occupy one. This is incompleteness. Imperfection is a defect. Defects cannot last long.

The power generation cannot reach the scheduled power generation, the difficulty of operation and maintenance and cleaning after installation is too high, the corresponding cost is too high, and the capital chain is broken.

Distributed photovoltaic power generation can be profitable through the difference in electricity bills.

For example, if you invest in the construction of a 5MW photovoltaic power station on the roof of your own enterprise in Beijing, the construction investment is about 35 million yuan, which can generate 6 million kWh of electricity per year, and you sell 50% of the electricity to your own enterprise (self-consumption), one kilowatt-hour of electricity, and the rest of each kilowatt-hour of electricity is sold to the State Grid (surplus electricity is connected to the Internet) one kilowatt-hour of electricity, and the state will give you a subsidy year per kilowatt-hour of electricity), and Beijing will give you a subsidy per kilowatt-hour of electricity per kilowatt-hour of electricity). Then you are equivalent to 3 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, which was sold for 5 years, sold for 15 yuan, and 3 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, which was sold for 5 years and sold for 20 years.

Translated into Mandarin, in the first five years, your annual electricity sales income is 7.89 million yuan, and in the next 15 years, your annual electricity sales income is 6.09 million yuan.

Of course, you also have to consider the annual attenuation of solar panels, the linear depreciation of equipment for 10 years, the inflation of 3% per year, the income tax from the 10th year, the replacement of the inverter in about 10 years, various insurance investments, the money for cleaning glass, and the halving of VAT.

To sum up, the IRR of all self-owned capital investment for the 20 years of the photovoltaic power plant mentioned in the above example is about 16% to 18%.

If you are renting someone else's roof, you will generally have to pay an additional fee of about 250,000-500,000 yuan per year for a 5MW roof, so that your IRR will probably drop to 14%-15%.

Considering that some people will use the EPC** I gave to embarrass the industry, I have reserved a part of the space (there should be applause here in the industry), and at the same time, please note that the scale of the PV project will directly affect the cost, that is to say, a 500k project and a 5MW project and a 20MW project are completely different costs! Link.

The sharp decline in the photovoltaic sector may be related to the postponement of the photovoltaic installation plan by the Energy Bureau, that is, this year's installation target can be postponed to next year. The more direct reason behind this is that the price of upstream polysilicon continues to rise, eroding midstream profits, and the terminal is unable to get down, and the power of downstream power generation enterprises to install large-scale capacity is insufficient.

Hello dear! The profit of photovoltaic power generation is 15%. According to the annual power generation of 1 square meter, it is easy to calculate that the annual income of 1 square meter photovoltaic power station is about 82 yuan --- 110 yuan, and the profit is very considerable, and the IRR of all its own funds invested in photovoltaic power stations for 20 years is about 16% 18%.

If you are renting someone else's roof, you will generally have to pay an additional fee of about 250,000-500,000 yuan per year for a 5MW roof, so that your IRR will probably drop to 14%-15%. The photovoltaic power station (non-distributed) with 1GW of virtual accompaniment, the annual power generation is 1.3-1.5 billion kWh, according to the yuan (refer to the actual data of Kuangda Technology), the revenue (i.e. electricity fee) is 100 million, deducting costs, management, etc., and the gross profit margin is 65%-69%!Take 65% of the difference, and the net profit is 100 million.

Conclusion: 1GW power station costs 80-10 billion, and the annual net profit is 100 million.

1) Solve the problem of people without electricity and electricity consumption in poor areas. Every 3,460 yuan investment in independent photovoltaic can solve the electricity consumption of one person; However, investing in the power grid requires 13,385 yuan, which is twice that of independent photovoltaics.

2) Achieve targeted poverty alleviation. 2015 In 2017, about 2 million poor households will receive a stable income of 3,000 yuan per year in the next 20 years, which is equivalent to providing 6 billion yuan of poverty alleviation funds every year.

3) Promote the integration of the central and western regions. The western region attracts photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises to invest with low energy and labor costs. At present, 57% of the polysilicon production capacity is in the western region, and this figure may reach 76% by the end of 2018. The new production capacity of other links is basically in the west.

At the same time, by the end of 2016, 40% of the country's photovoltaic installed capacity was in the western provinces, making full use of the abundant local solar energy resources and desertified land, and effectively improving the desertification of the land.

4) Activate private capital and promote the diversification of the main body of the energy industry. From extraction to power generation, traditional energy is basically controlled by state-owned enterprises. The photovoltaic industry, especially distributed photovoltaics, has broken the geographical factors of traditional energy, lowered the entry threshold, and provided the possibility for a wider range of small and medium-sized enterprises and the public to participate in the energy industry.

Among the enterprises with large holdings, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises each account for half of the country, while small-scale holders are mainly private enterprises. The characteristics of photovoltaic power generation determine that it is the main force to promote the diversification of the main body of the energy industry. This shift in role will have a significant and far-reaching impact on the evolution and development of the energy system.

5) Intensive land use, popularization of renewable energy, layout of energy Internet, photovoltaic power generation and other industries complementary development of new forms have become one of the measures for the development and transformation of many regions, and on the basis of the original function, the original building has increased the effect of power generation and energy saving, and improved the utilization rate. The development of household photovoltaic has brought renewable energy into thousands of households, let ordinary people understand renewable energy, and improve their awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction. The development of distributed photovoltaic has laid a solid foundation for the future development of the energy Internet.

6) Save water resourcesFrom the perspective of the whole life cycle, the water consumption of photovoltaic power generation is only 50% of the water consumption of coal power, and vigorously developing photovoltaic power generation can effectively save water resources.

There are two grid-connected modes for photovoltaic power generation systems, which are as follows:

Spontaneous self-consumption of surplus electricity on the grid: that is, part of the electricity generated by the photovoltaic power generation system can be used by itself, and the unused can be sold to the power grid, and every kilowatt-hour of electricity generated at the same time can be subsidized.

Full access to the Internet: That is, all the electricity generated by the photovoltaic power generation system is sold to the power grid, and it is not used for a while. In this case, the grid buys all the electricity generated by the power station at the local benchmark feed-in tariff for photovoltaic power generation.

3. How to calculate the income of grid-connected power generation in the two modes?

Taking my hometown as an example, under the mode of self-generation and self-consumption of surplus electricity on the grid, the subsidy income of 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity is yuan (including national subsidy yuan and provincial subsidy yuan); Under the full grid mode, the income of the kWh subsidy is yuan (among them, the benchmark feed-in tariff of photovoltaic power generation in his hometown Hebei is yuan, and the provincial subsidy is yuan).

If the residential electricity price is yuan, the electricity sold ** is yuan.

Based on the sunshine conditions in his hometown of Hebei, it is estimated that the 5KW power station can generate 8,100 kWh of electricity a year. The annual electricity consumption of residents is preliminarily set at 2,000 kWh. Among them, 1,000 kWh is used to generate electricity from the photovoltaic power generation system, and the other 1,000 kWh is used to buy electricity from the national grid.

The photovoltaic industry is now developing rapidly, and the development potential is very good.

In the past few years, it has not worked, I chose to do it in this industry, there are more people and less meat, foreigners are in a financial crisis, and their pockets are also simmering--- but after a few years it is still good, sunrise industry.

In fact, in recent years, the project is a key national support project? But for development, power generation is lower than that....