What is the effect of the recent pullback in pork prices?

Pig prices have fallen,caused a significant drop in CPI！A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said at a press conference that pork ** fell year-on-year in OctoberThe CPI has been pulled down by one percentage point

On the one hand, this change is related to last year's base, and on the other hand, it is related to this year's increase in pig production. Due to the constraints of production and supply of pork last year, since the fourth quarter of last year, pork has been significantly larger, resulting in a relatively high base since the fourth quarter of last year.

Judging from this year's situation, due to the continuous increase in pig production and ** in various regions and departments since the beginning of the year, pork ** ended 19 months of year-on-year ** this month, showing its first decline. In the later period, the base of pork ** last year is rising, coupled with the increase in pork supply, it is possible to have a certain decline in the trend.

In fact, when it comes to pork**or**, I have to mention that the development of all things is cyclical! The fluctuation of pig prices is naturally the same, pork ****, the increase in farmers, the price of pork will drop as soon as there is more pork, the profits of pork farmers will decline, the enthusiasm of pig raising will decline and they will not be willing to reinvest, and the pig will be less pork, and this is just the case repeatedly.

Pork has always been the focus of everyone's concern, because there was a lot of pork in May, and many people were worried that it would continue. But recently, the country has spoken, and pork will fall steadily in the second half of 2020, so what's going on? What is the reason for the pullback?

1. In the second half of the year, pork ** will fall steadily, what is going on? What is the reason for the pullback?

On June 16, the state held a regular press conference in June. At the meeting, the situation of pigs was introduced, saying that the current momentum of pig resumption is relatively good, pork ** will tend to improve in the third quarter of this year, and pork ** will fall steadily in the second half of the year. There are several reasons for this:

1.Reason 1: Expansion of large-scale farms.

The number of sows and pigs that can reproduce is higher than last year.

In September and October, there was a relatively large rebound.

2.Reason 2: Seasonal changes.

Fluctuates with seasonal and festive changes in demand.

3.Reason 3: The supply of pork is guaranteed.

Pork consumption demand is still in the process of recovery, and pork supply is still guaranteed.

Second, what is the trend of national pig prices in the later period?

The main influencing factor of domestic pork and pig ** has changed from pig supply to pork consumption. At present, it will take time for catering consumption, group consumption and processing consumption to recover, especially the market digestion speed of frozen products will directly affect the time and space of pig prices. Since the impact of the income effect on consumption will be greater than the ** effect, in the medium term, factors such as slowing economic growth and reduced incomes will have an impact on consumption that will be reflected in the pork market in the second half of the year.

From the supply point of view, in October last year, the national breeding sow herd began to recover, since February this year, the supply of commercial piglets has increased, the pig herd has risen for 4 consecutive months, and the breeding sow herd has rebounded for 8 consecutive months, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed significantly. It is expected that the supply of commercial pigs will also increase after July, and pork imports will continue to remain high.

Under the premise that the African swine fever epidemic is effectively controlled, it is expected that pigs and pork will still show a seasonal trend, and the increase in pork will still be lower than that of pigs.

Now is the time to go for the bargain. If the pig is pressed for too long, the price will decrease. Pork **** is only temporary, and it is the first choice for farms to slaughter at high prices.

Recently, not only egg ****, pork **** has hit again.

There are two parts to the effect caused by the decline of pork, one is that the decline of pork makes pork appear cheaper, thereby increasing the purchase of pork to replace other commodities, which is the substitution effect.

Second, the decline in pork ** makes the original income can buy more pork, thus making consumers richer, so consumers will also buy more pork, which is the income effect of the cherry blossoms. Both the substitution effect and the income effect have increased the purchase of pork, so the demand for pork will increase.

As we all know, there is a saying that "everywhere you pay attention to learning", and many things that happen around us have a very profound truth behind them, so as long as we live seriously, we can see through many things. Take the most common pork in our daily life as an example, friends who pay attention to pork know that this year's pork is relatively weak, especially since September, pork has been in the trend for 2 consecutive months. However, many ordinary people only see the **and** of pork, and they don't understand what the logic behind pork ** and ** is.

Next, Leng Yan will give you a science popularization of this knowledge, see what is the reason for this year's pork ****, I hope that Leng Yan's sharing can help friends in need, and I also hope that everyone can be a caring person in life, from the ordinary things in daily life, to understand the profound truth, so as to see the life of the world more transparently.

Let's get back to the topic, friends who have studied economics know that economics has summarized some reasons for prices. According to the knowledge in economics, all price changes are essentially changes in the relationship between supply and demand. Take the pork ** that we are going to talk about today as an example, the reason why pork ** will be 2 months in a row ** is actually because of the relationship between supply and demand, because there is more pork in the market, but less pork is bought.

So why is there so much pork in the market? This actually involves more professional information, friends who have been in contact with the pork market know that this year due to the soaring price of pork last year, so that many people will go to raise pigs. So in general, there are more people raising pigs, and there is still more pork in the market.

And in addition to the increase in pig farmers, there is also a reason why there will be more pork in the market is the introduction of imported pork and ** reserve meat. Of course, there is another reason why pork is continuous, that is, there are fewer people buying pork.

Everyone knows that if there are more people who buy pork and fewer people who sell pork, pork will be; And if there are more people selling pork and fewer people buying pork, pork will **will**. Therefore, from this logic, the reason why pork has been in a row for 2 months is that the demand for pork is not so great. As we all know, the high incidence period for people to eat pork is the New Year's holiday, but from September to the present, there is no festival during this period, so we don't have much demand to buy pork, that is, there are few people who buy pork, plus there is a lot of pork in the market, so pork will naturally be always.

Of course, there is another reason why pork will be the first to be the first, that is, some places are deliberately controlling pork, because pork ****, there may be a situation where everyone can't afford pork, so in order for the people to be able to eat meat, it is very necessary to control pork in a reasonable range!

As the saying goes, the people live on food. In the daily diet, meat intake is the focus of attention. China has always been the world's largest pork consumer, and the pigs eaten by our Chinese people account for half of the total global consumption every year, the spending power is also very amazing.

But recently, whether it is paying attention to all kinds of ** information, or people who often go in and out of the vegetable market, they will obviously feel that pork ** is declining. Specifically, it has been declining for two consecutive months. It can be said that some people are happy and some are sad.

In the first half of this year, the wave of pork is still fresh in everyone's memory. Many people say they can't afford to eat pork anymore. At that time, the main reason was that on the one hand, due to the impact of African swine fever, the pig production capacity declined.

And the new crown epidemic at the beginning of the year undoubtedly increased the tension at the first end. In economics, we often talk about the balance between supply and demand, and we ordinary people also have our own simple wisdom。We all know that scarcity is expensive, pork production capacity is less, and there are fewer pigs on the market, but there are still so many people who want to buy pork, and the demand is still there.

understands the logic behind the pork **** in the first half of the year, and in the face of this price reduction for two consecutive months, the reason is actually easier to understand. On the one hand, the domestic epidemic has been basically controlled, and the people's production and life are relatively optimistic. On the other hand, it has been several months since the first half of the pork ****.

After the expansion of the scale of private pork breeding and the high number of pigs, the pork production capacity will be gradually released。The supply of pork in the market has increased, and the ** has naturally begun to decline.

According to official data, at present, our country's pig production capacity has recovered to about eighty percent of previous years, basically in the second quarter of next year, the pig inventory can return to normal levels。That is to say, in the future, pork ** as a whole is still a downward trend, but it does not rule out that the consumption boom of the New Year will lead to a phased **.

Pork ** has fallen sharply for more than two months, and I personally think that the main reason for the price reduction is that the epidemic situation in China has been well controlled, all aspects of the economy have been recovered, and the breeding and quantity of pigs have been warmed up, and then ** will naturally be regulated.

Personally, I think the main reason for the price reduction is because a large amount of pork has flowed into the market, resulting in an increase in the amount of pork in the market. The more the amount, the more choices people have, and the lower it will be.

The main reason for the price reduction of pork is because of the rise in pork last year, so many people have begun to breed pork, and as a result, there are many pigs this year, and pork cannot be sold because it is expensive. There is also the fact that China has imported pork from foreign countries to the country, resulting in a very large number of pork in China, so that the ** of pork has declined.

Although pork is ****, there are other meats that can be eaten by humans, and when the purchasing power is insufficient, it will naturally decline.

There are a lot of foreign imports, and when the quantity is large, the competition is great, so they can only be sold at a reduced price. There is also the impact of the epidemic, many people imported from foreign countries are unwilling to eat, cannot sell, and ** is also low.

First, this year's pigs grow fast, and there is no disease, so the natural slaughter rate is high. Second, the country has taken action to regulate and control, and it is impossible to keep it inflated.

Let the impact of the epidemic be minimized, and control prices so that everyone can eat pork. Return to normal life.

With the increase in production and supply, pig production has recovered rapidly, and the number of slaughters has increased, which has continued to recover under the pull of the market and the promotion of policies.

The ** fluctuation of pork is somewhat frequent, which is mainly decided according to the demand of the market, and with the continuous change of seasons, people's demand for meat will gradually decrease. Every winter, due to the cold season, people will want to eat more pork to resist the cold. In the summer, when some people cook rice, they don't know what to eat, and even if they eat some stew, they will feel that there is no taste.

And now when eating some pork, it is difficult to taste the taste of pork in the past, and the current meat has no taste, which feels like it is caused by the problem of feed eaten by pigs in the process of feeding. <>

From 2019 to 2022, in the past three years, the ups and downs of pork have fluctuated very much, and it can be sold for more than 30 yuan a pound during the peak period of pork. When some people eat pork, they say that they can't afford pork at all, because a small amount of pork is very expensive, but it can attract consumers to buy it when it is high. And when the ** of pork was gradually lowered, it was found that pork has not become a diet for people, not only can they choose pork, but also chicken, duck and fish.

At the height of the epidemic, the step by step increase in pork production also allowed many farmers to see the business opportunities in the pig industry and invested in a large number of pig markets. Because more and more people are entering the aquaculture market, there will be a surplus in the aquaculture industry. When pork can't be sold, it has to choose to reduce the price, and in order to stabilize the balance of the market, pork should also be restored to the previous **.

You can't let the ** of pork fluctuate too much, so there is no way to satisfy the citizens' vegetable basket. <>

At the time of every New Year's holiday, the sales of pork will gradually increase, because for some people who think that they should eat more good ones during the festival. Therefore, they will buy a variety of meat products, and pork is definitely the most commonly eaten meat product. Not only can you eat pork, but you can also eat pork ribs or stick bones, and stew more bone broth for the stall children, so that the children can grow their bodies.

Some pig farmers and farmers saw that pork ** was so high, and they wanted to buy some pigs to raise in order to subsidize their income and increase operating profits. Such a swarm of pig breeding will lead to the number of pigs slaughtered in the market much higher than the market demand, resulting in the problem of "oversupply", which will naturally reduce the number of pork to a reasonable price. In fact, the current low-priced pork is temporary, just like last year's ** pork, sooner or later it will return to a reasonable range, which will take a process.

Regardless of whether it encounters the epidemic or not, China's pork ** is basically maintaining the law of rising and falling year by year, because pig farmers have a certain degree of blindness, and they will increase their inventory in a swarm after seeing pork ****. To sum up, the main factors leading to pork **** are the decline in market demand and the oversupply brought about by the increase in the number of pigs slaughtered.