Reasons for the sharp drop in copper prices 10, the reasons for the sharp drop in copper prices

Weak demand in the Chinese market and weak global economy.

The market is saturated, and in Chai Jing's words, the ** of a ton of steel is not as good as the ** of a glass of Coke.

After a rollercoaster of copper prices, the trend of scrap copper has finally stabilized for some time recently, yesterday it was **200, but today it was suddenly **800, which caught people off guard, and even scratched their heads, suddenly fell sharply, is the market wind direction to change?

Let's take a look at today's copper scrap in various regions**:

Yangtze River spot: 1 copper 66140-66180 yuan ton, down 910 yuan;

Guangdong spot: 1 copper 65900-66100 yuan ton, down 960 yuan;

Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai: bright copper 59,300-59,500 yuan ton, down 500 yuan;

Jiangsu spot: 58,800-59,200 yuan of copper per mu of bright Lufan, down 800 yuan;

Hunan: bright copper 58700-59100 yuan ton, down 800 yuan;

Foshan: 1 Copper: 59100-59300 yuan ton, down 600 yuan;

Shanghai: 1 Copper: 59,600-59,800 yuan ton, down 600 yuan.

There are several reasons for the copper price:

1.As far as the development of global copper prices is concerned, the threat of strikes in Chilean copper mines has been lifted, and the impact on copper prices has been minimized, mainly affected by the epidemic in Europe, and yesterday London copper **8871 fell 259 points;

2.According to the data of Oriental Fortune Network, the reason for the direct intraday plunge in copper prices is that Japan canceled the annual ETF purchase target of 6 trillion yen, causing Japanese copper prices to exceed 500 points.

Copper price trend analysis: the market transaction is average, and the premium is the same as yesterday. Today's downstream consumption is still dominated by rigid demand; The transaction of intermediaries has maintained the heat of recent days, and the spot premium of copper prices has remained stable and has not been lowered.

Macro expectations limit the space of copper prices, and the support of 10,000 yuan below copper prices is within reach, and short-term copper prices still have the requirement to explore 10,000 support.

Copper prices may not be significant in 2022**. According to the agency, copper prices will remain strong until at least the end of next year, and structural deficits will keep copper prices high in the long term. and the industry's carbon transition efforts ultimately benefit copper production, which has struggled to keep up, including Chile.

within the needs of some regions.

Outlook: On a macro level, the US CPI increased year-on-year in November.

It is a new high in nearly 40 years. At the December interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve.

Not only has it sharply raised its inflation expectations for this year and tomorrow, but it has also raised its expectations for next year's rate hikes from one to three, with 10 out of 18** supporting three rate hikes. As can be seen from the Fed's statement, high inflation has become the Fed's "number one enemy". Domestic real estate data is down from last year.

Although the financing environment is marginally relaxed, housing is not speculation.

The policy is a long-term direction, and the real estate industry is still not optimistic for a long time. From a macro point of view, the expectation of tightening liquidity and pessimistic consumption in the future is relatively strong. Historically, every bull market has been in monetary policy.

Tightening, the situation of falling demand peaks.

At present, the biggest support for the copper market is low inventory. Domestic inventories fell to a historic low, and the global explicit bonded area copper inventory was only 350,000 tons. We believe that the low inventory is mainly due to structural shortages caused by hidden inventory and logistics issues.

At present, the inventory of LME copper has bottomed out, and it has begun to be stocked, and LME copper is discounted by 0-3 liters.

It has narrowed to normal levels. Low domestic inventories and lower copper imports are an important factor. Due to poor logistics and transportation, it is estimated that 200,000-300,000 tonnes of hidden stocks of refined pyrocopper and blister copper have accumulated in Africa and elsewhere.

Later, we will pay attention to the recovery of logistics after Christmas in North America. Once logistics begins to recover, the pressure on the market outlook will be relatively large. According to our statistics, next year copper mines.

It will increase by more than 1 million tons, and the logistics problem may be significantly improved in the second half of the year. However, domestic real estate and overseas consumption expectations are not optimistic, and in the context of a large surplus of supply and demand expectations, copper is envious of the fundamentals.

There will be a reversal.

Demand outstrips supply or currency depreciation.

There could be a number of reasons for the surge in copper prices. Here are some common reasons:

1.Contradiction between supply and demand: The sharp rise in copper prices is often affected by the relationship between supply and demand.

If the amount of copper decreases and the demand increases, the price of copper may skyrocket. For example, if the production capacity of copper mines decreases, or the import of copper decreases, the amount of copper will decrease, and the price of copper may skyrocket.

2.Currency depreciation: If a country's currency depreciates, it can cause copper prices to skyrocket.

Currency depreciation means that the purchasing power of the currency unit decreases, so in the case of currency depreciation, people need to pay more currency units to buy the same amount of copper. This leads to copper prices**.

3.Global economic growth: If the global economy grows faster, it could cause copper prices to skyrocket.

Because in the case of rapid economic growth, the production activities of enterprises will increase, resulting in an increase in the demand for copper. And if the first volume cannot meet the increased demand, the price of copper may skyrocket.

4.Political and social unrest: If there is political or social unrest in a country, it can cause copper prices to skyrocket.

Because in this case, the production of copper ore may be affected, resulting in a decrease in the amount of copper. In addition, political and social unrest can also lead to a decline in investor confidence, leading to capital outflows, which in turn leads to copper prices**.

Summary. Dear, I'm glad to answer for you, the current copper price is in a downward trend, and it will be ** in the short term. At present, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, resulting in the appreciation of the US dollar, and US dollar-denominated commodities, including copper, have appeared**, and copper prices will stop falling and stabilize after the Fed ends raising interest rates early next year.

Dear, I'm glad to answer for you, the current copper price is in a downward trend, and it will be ** in the short term. At present, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, resulting in the appreciation of the US dollar, and US dollar-denominated commodities, including copper, have appeared**, and copper prices will stop falling and stabilize after the Fed ends raising interest rates early next year.

Now the dollar is **.

Will it fall again in the next two days?

Yes, inflation in the United States has declined, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates as high as before, so the dollar has risen a little, but the US interest rate hike has not ended, and the dollar has only slightly increased, but the dollar strength cycle is still not over.

With this trend, the current Shanghai copper ** is in a downward channel, and there is no sign of stabilization in the short term.

From last year to this year, raw materials are bound to be.

** The reason is inflation.

For example, in July and August last year.

The ** of copper is about 30,000 a ton.

Now it's almost doubled.

Of course he doesn't go straight**.

There will be fluctuations. The whole is a top momentum.

It is advisable to be bullish on the market.

Analyse**. Intervene cautiously.

Hello answer, I'm happy to answer your question, according to the current trend, the trend of copper prices is not large, because copper prices have maintained the highest level, is the most important in the past years, according to the current trend, copper prices will slowly slow down, and will not continue.

China's electrolytic copper social inventory of 10,000 tons, inventory in the same period of history is relatively low, in the off-season cycle, low inventory for copper prices to provide a certain bottom support, copper prices around 70,000 yuan tons of a wide range of **. From the perspective of the current supply and demand links, there is room for copper inventories to rebound, but the rebound trend of inventories is relatively modest, which restricts the subsequent upward movement of copper prices.