Directed decision making methods in management Similarities and differences between quantitative dec

Decision-making methods can be divided into two types: qualitative decision-making methods and quantitative decision-making methods. Qualitative decision-making methods: brainstorming, nominal group techniques, Delphi techniques, business unit portfolio analysis methods, policy guidance matrix.

Quantitative decision-making methods: deterministic decision-making, risk-based decision-making, and uncertain decision-making.

Qualitative decision-making method, also known as subjective decision-making method, refers to the method of making decisions mainly relying on the wisdom of decision-makers or relevant experts in decision-making, which is a kind of "soft technology".

Management decision-makers use the principles of social sciences and based on personal experience and judgment ability, adopt some effective organizational forms, fully develop their rich experience, knowledge and ability, start from the study of the essential characteristics of decision-making objects, grasp the internal relationship of things and their operation laws, and make judgments on the decision-making objectives of enterprise management, the formulation of decision-making plans, and the selection and implementation of programs.

This method is suitable for comprehensive problems that are greatly affected by non-quantitative factors such as social, economic, and political factors, and that the factors involved are complex, involve many psychosocial factors, and are difficult to express in accurate quantities. This "soft technology" method is the main method used in corporate decision-making, which makes up for the shortcomings of the "hard" method that is difficult to work on human factors and social factors. The two types of "hard" and "soft" technologies cooperate with each other to complement each other's strengths and weaknesses in order to make decisions more effective.

Quantitative decision-making methods are often used in quantitative decision-making, and mathematical models and formulas are used to solve some decision-making problems, that is, to use mathematical tools, establish mathematical models that reflect various factors and their relationships, and select the best decision-making scheme through the calculation and solution of this mathematical model. Quantitative analysis of decision-making problems can improve the timeliness and accuracy of routine decision-making. The use of quantitative decision-making methods for decision-making is also an important sign of scientific decision-making methods.

a.An approach that relies on people's knowledge, experience, and judgment to make bridge tremor decisions.

b.Deterministic, uncertain, and risk-based decision-making methods.

c.Using mathematical methods to establish mathematical models to make decisions.

d.A series of scientific processing processes.

Correct answer: c

Quantitative decision-making refers to the method of making decisions based on data and mathematical models. It evaluates the pros and cons of various decision-making options through quantitative analysis and calculations, and selects the best decision-making option. Here are some common methods for quantitative decision-making:

Cost-benefit analysis: Cost-benefit analysis is a method of comparing the costs and benefits of different decision-making options. It works by calculating the costs and benefits of each option to determine which option has the best cost-benefit ratio.

Linear Programming: Linear programming is an optimization technique used to solve optimization problems under linear constraints. It builds a mathematical model that converts the objective functions and constraints into a set of linear equations, and then uses a linear programming algorithm to find the optimal solution.

Decision Tree Analysis: Decision tree analysis is a graphical decision analysis method that helps decision makers understand and analyze the possible outcomes of different decision options by building decision trees. Decision tree analysis can help decision-makers evaluate the risks and rewards of each option and choose the best group imitation decision path.

Simulation: Simulation is a method of decision analysis based on the simulation of random events. It works by building a simulation model that simulates the outcomes of different decision-making options and evaluates their potential impact.

Simulations can help decision-makers understand the risks and uncertainties of different decision-making options and help them make more informed decisions.

Multi-attribute decision analysis: Multi-attribute decision analysis is a decision-making method that comprehensively considers multiple attributes and factors. It works by giving weights to each attribute and using a mathematical model to calculate a composite score for each option to determine the best option for decision.

Multi-attribute decision analysis can help decision-makers make more comprehensive decisions when considering multiple factors.

Probabilistic Analysis: Probabilistic analysis is a method of decision analysis based on probability theory. It evaluates the probability distribution of different decision options and calculates their expected values and variances by building a probabilistic model.

Probabilistic analysis can help decision-makers understand the risks and uncertainties of different decision-making options and choose the best decision-making pure or volcanic option.

These are some of the common quantitative decision-making methods that can help decision-makers make more accurate and effective decisions when faced with complex decision-making problems. However, choosing the right quantitative decision-making method needs to take into account the characteristics of the problem and the quality of the available data.

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In management practice, there are several commonly used uncertain decision-making methods.

1.Intuitive decision-making

Intuitive decision-making, also known as empirical decision-making, refers to a method of making decisions based on subjective factors such as personal experience, hail, feeling, and comprehension. This method is usually used when there is not enough information or time, and its advantage is that it can make decisions quickly, but it is easily disturbed by subjective factors, and requires a certain amount of experience and skill to make the right decision. Intuitive decision-making is applied to the handling of daily affairs and decision-making in emergency situations.

2.Preference decision-making method

Preference decision-making refers to the method of giving rankings or scores according to individual or team preferences when faced with multiple options, and then making decisions based on the total score and ranking. This approach is often used to select talents, evaluate projects, allocate resources, etc., and has the advantage of being able to consider multiple perspectives and factors, but it needs to be clear and unbiased about the weights and preferences of different options.

3.Ranking decision-making method

The ranking decision method, also known as the weighted average method or the electronic model method, is to weight each option according to a certain criterion, and then make a decision according to the level of the comprehensive score. The ranking decision method is mainly used in project evaluation, business selection, investment decision-making, etc., and its advantage is that it can comprehensively weigh different factors, but it is necessary to formulate reasonable weights and evaluation criteria, and at the same time, it is necessary to take into account the subjectivity and objectivity of evaluation.

4.Decision tree method

The decision tree method is a method of making decisions based on the diagram of the tree structure. This approach usually involves multiple decision points and multiple choices, and the optimal decision is finally determined by building a decision branch. The decision tree method is mainly used in project management, risk assessment, production planning, etc., and its advantage is that it can quickly locate the decision path, but it needs to quantify and evaluate different factors, and it is also necessary to formulate reasonable decision branches and follow-up measures.

5.Fuzzy logic decision-making method

Fuzzy logic decision-making method is a method of making decisions based on fuzzy concepts and fuzzy mathematical theories. The main idea of this method is to quantify uncertain and fuzzy information, and then calculate the optimal decision by applying fuzzy mathematical theory. The fuzzy logic decision method is mainly used in culture, risk assessment and production management, and its advantage is that it can better deal with uncertainty and fuzzy decision-making problems, but it needs to use high theory and technology to calculate and analyze.

Qualitative decision-making method, also known as subjective decision-making method, refers to the method of making decisions mainly relying on the wisdom of decision-makers or relevant experts in decision-making, which is a kind of "soft technology". Management decision-makers use the principles of social sciences and based on personal experience and judgment ability, adopt some effective organizational forms, give full play to their rich experience, knowledge and ability, start from the study of the essential characteristics of decision-making objects, grasp the internal relationship of things and their operation laws, and make judgments on the decision-making objectives of enterprise management, the formulation of decision-making plans, and the selection and implementation of programs. This method is suitable for comprehensive problems that are greatly affected by non-quantitative factors such as social, economic, and political factors, contain complex factors, involve many social psychological factors, and are difficult to express in accurate quantities.

The quantitative analysis method is based on actual data, according to a certain model and method to make decisions

The advantages of quantitative decision-making methods are: (1) it can improve the accuracy, optimality and reliability of decision-making; (2) It can free decision-makers from routine decision-making and focus on key and overall major strategic decisions, which helps leaders improve the correctness and reliability of major strategic decisions.

Quantitative decision-making methods also have their limitations: (1) some variables are difficult to quantify; (2) the mathematical means themselves are esoteric and difficult to understand; (3) It costs a lot of money and is not suitable for general decision-making problems.

Qualitative decision-making method, also known as subjective decision-making method, refers to the use of the achievements of psychology and social psychology, to adopt an effective organizational form, in the decision-making process, directly use the knowledge and experience of experts, according to the information and information that has been mastered, put forward decision-making goals and methods to achieve goals, and make evaluations and choices.

Qualitative analysis refers to the analysis and judgment of the qualitative aspects of things. The qualitative analysis method in the process of policy formulation refers to a technical method that analyzes and judges policy plans based on the experience, knowledge, wisdom and ability of policy makers or relevant experts and scholars, and comprehensively uses theoretical thinking and logical reasoning to make decisions.

When people carry out policy decision analysis, they must only carry out qualitative analysis and use qualitative methods, mainly because there are many factors in policy analysis that cannot be quantified, so it is not suitable to be completely solved by quantitative analysis. It can be said that the complexity and diversity of factors is often where qualitative analysis methods come into play.

Qualitative analysis methods rely primarily on expert wisdom and intuitive judgments. It has several advantages. That is, it can give full play to the collective wisdom and strength, and stimulate creativity through thinking resonance; It is conducive to promoting scientific and democratic decision-making; A set of basic theories and specific methods with operable, standardized and procedural characteristics of how to use the collective creativity of experts have been formed. On the basis of modern scientific theories and a series of disciplines, it fully absorbs the knowledge and research methods of other disciplines, and forms systematic thinking and comprehensive argumentation conditions based on knowledge exchange and integration. Increasingly combined with quantitative methods to complement each other's strengths; It is convenient and flexible, versatile, and has a wide range of adaptability, which is easy for people to grasp and apply, especially in the field of strategic policy, political policy and non-normative policy.